Report No. 55195-MD Report No. 55195-MD Moldova After the Global Crisis Promoting Competitiveness and Shared Growth Public Disclosure Authorized June 14, 2011 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit Europe and Central Asia Region Moldova After the Global Crisis Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized MOLDOVA - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of June 14, 2011) Currency Unit = Moldovan Leu US$1.00 = 11.3552 (MDL) Weights and Measures Metric System ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CAS Country Assistance Strategy LFS Labor Force Survey CEM Country Economic Memorandum MDGs Millennium Development Goals CFAA Country Financial Accountability MOE Ministry of Education Assessment CIS Commonwealth of Independent States MOF Ministry of Finance DPL Development Policy Loan MOH Ministry of Health ECA Europe and Central Asia MTEF Medium-Term Expenditure Framework ETF European Training Foundation NBM National Bank of Moldova FDI Foreign Direct Investment NPL Non-Performing Loan FSAP Foreign Sector Assessment Program PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Assessment GDP Gross Domestic Product PER Public Expenditure Review GNP Gross National Product PFM Public Financial Management GOST Gusudarstyennyy Standart IFRS International Financing Reporting Standards IFC International Finance Corporation TFP Total Factor Productivity IMF International Monetary Fund UNDP United Nations Development Program LDP Letter of Development Policy VAT Value Added Tax Vice President: Philippe H. Le Houerou Sector Director: Yvonne M. Tsikata Sector Manager: Benu Bidani Task Team Leader: Dino L. Merotto MOLDOVA COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... I SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................ I MAIN ANALYTIC FINDINGS................................................................................................ X 1. SOURCES OF GROWTH: MACRO AND MICRO FINDINGS ........................................................ 1 A. Impact of the Global Crisis .................................................................................................... 1 B. Remittances, the Fiscal Accounts, and the Need for Expenditure Reforms .......................... 4 C. Implications for Future Growth Strategy ............................................................................... 5 D. Macro Accounting for Sources of Growth, 2000-2008 – Expenditure and GDP Decomposition .................................................................................................................... 7 E. Capital, Labor and the Solow Decomposition ..................................................................... 10 F. Micro Evidence of Sources of Growth at the Sector Level, 2003-2009 .............................. 15 G. The Structure of the Moldovan Economy ........................................................................... 15 H. Productivity and its Characteristics: An overview .............................................................. 23 I. Productivity and the Investment Climate .............................................................................. 25 J. Towards a Reform Program .................................................................................................. 29 2. CAN EXPORTS PROVIDE A SECOND ENGINE OF GROWTH? ................................................. 32 A. Introduction and Summary .................................................................................................. 32 B. Export Trends: And How Declining Export Growth is Bad for Job Creation ..................... 33 C. Building an Export-Led Growth Strategy around Moldova’s Comparative Advantage ...... 37 D. Sophistication ...................................................................................................................... 38 E. Ease of Movement to Diversify ........................................................................................... 41 F. Conclusions and Policy Implications ................................................................................... 43 G. Symptoms of the Agriculture Sector in Moldova ................................................................ 47 3. MIGRATION: BENEFITS, PROSPECTS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES ....................... 55 A. Magnitude of Migration in Moldova ................................................................................... 55 B. Benefits of Migration ........................................................................................................... 56 C. Prospects .............................................................................................................................. 58 D. Opportunities ....................................................................................................................... 60 E. Challenges: Migration and Macroeconomic Management .................................................. 61 F. Challenges: Emigration, Wages and Skills in Moldova ....................................................... 62 G. Skills: Is Human Capital a Binding Constraint to Growth?................................................. 67 H. Implications for the Education Sector ................................................................................. 69 I. General Education ................................................................................................................. 70 J. Vocational Education and Training ...................................................................................... 71 K. Conclusions for a Reform Program ..................................................................................... 73 LIST OF ANNEXES Annex 1: Value Chain Analysis: The Moldovan Apple Sector ..................................................... 75 Annex 2: Value Chain Analysis: Software Development Sector .................................................. 80 Annex 3: Reconciling 2005 and 2006 Poverty Data ..................................................................... 87 Annex 4: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Impact of the Investment Climate. ...................... 88 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Remittances & Growth and Value ................................................................................ 2 Figure 1.2: Changes in Exports and Imports, and the Current Account Deficit (CAD) % Growth and Value .............................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 1.3: Foreign Direct Investment % Growth and Value .......................................................... 2 Figure 1.4: Evolution of International Reserves (left axis) and Exchange Rate (right axis) ........... 3 Figure 1.5: GDP growth: - Percent Change Year on Year .............................................................. 3 Figure 1.6: Real Wage Growth and Unemployment Rates ............................................................. 4 Figure 1.7: Public Current Spending % GDP .................................................................................. 5 Figure 1.8: Public Capital Expenditures as Share of GDP 2005-2009 ............................................ 5 Figure 1.9: Moldovan GDP Index (1991-2008) .............................................................................. 7 Figure 1.10: Moldova: Below Average Growth in a Fast Growing Region (2000-2008) .............. 7 Figure 1.11 : Remittances as a % of GDP, 2008 ............................................................................. 8 Figure 1.12: Remittances Fuelled an Increase in Private Consumption and Imports ...................... 8 Figure 1.13: Remittances Fuelled an Increase in Housing .............................................................. 8 Figure 1.14: The Composition of Real Value Added By Sector (2000-2008) ................................ 9 Figure 1.15: Percent Annual Growth in Real Value Added by Sector (2000-2008) ....................... 9 Figure 1.16: Export Groups as a Share of GDP 1998-2008 .......................................................... 10 Figure 1.17: Sources of Growth – Solow Decomposition 1998-2008........................................... 11 Figure 1.18: Labor Left Agriculture and Industry, and Left Moldova .......................................... 11 Figure 1.19: Elasticity of Employment to GDP 2001-2005 .......................................................... 12 Figure 1.20: Labor Force Participation Rate 2007 ........................................................................ 13 Figure 1.21: Employment Rate 2007 ............................................................................................. 13 Figure 1.22: Sector Growth Accounting – 2000-2008 (% annual average growth per period) ..... 14 Figure 1.23: GDP GDY GDE in constant million Lei – 2000-2008 ............................................. 14 Figure 1.24: Remittance Inflows Led to Marked Real Exchange Rate Appreciation ................... 15 Figure 1.25: Change in Sources of Total Firm Revenue, 2003-2008 ............................................ 16 Figure 1.26: Output by Sector, 2009 ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 1.27: Sectoral Breakdown of Total