Recurring Conflicts in Northeast India An Analysis at the International, Federal and Group Level Master thesis in Political Science Department of Sociology and Political Science NTNU, Trondheim (Spring 2013) Nikoline Fon Holmøy i ii Acknowledgments There are several people who deserve an honorable mention after this thesis finally is completed. The first among them, my supervisor Scott Gates, I thank for guidance and feedback along the way. The VIP-group at ISS, NTNU I want to thank for useful advice and comments. Thanks also to those who have answered my emails and given me tips on literature and research questions. To my fellow students and friends at Kull 19 in Political Science, for many a long lunches and several glasses of wine. Especially Torunn, Line and Annicken deserve thanks for making the days of writing that much more fun. My mum, dad and sister, Kristiane, I thank you for always being there with care, support and hugs when I need you, and of course, to Martin, for practically everything. All mistakes and errors are my responsibility alone. Trondheim, 10 May 2013 Nikoline Fon Holmøy iii iv Acronyms ABSO: All Bodo Student Union AFSPA: Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act ATPLO: All Tripura People’s Liberation Organization ATTF: All Tripura Tiger Force BLT: Bodo Liberation Tigers BLTF: Bodo Liberation Tiger Force BSF: Border Security Force CNF: Chin National Front COW: Correlates of War CRPF: Central Reserve Police Force DGFI: Directorate General de Forces Intelligence FGN: Federal Government of Nagaland GoI: Government of India HI: Horizontal Inequalities HNLC: Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council INCB: International Narcotics Control Board ISI: Inter Services Intelligence of Pakistan KNA: Kuki Nationalist Army MNA: Mizo Nationalist Army MNF: Mizo National Front MNFF: Mizo Nationalist Famine Front MU: Mizo Union MULTA: Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam NEFA: North East Frontier Agency NDFB: National Democratic Front of Bodoland NLFT: National Liberation Front of Tripura NNC: Naga Nationalist Council NSCN: National Socialist Council of Nagaland v NSCN-K: National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang NSCN-Khole-Kitovi: National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khole-Kitovi NSCN-IM: National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah NSCN-U: National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Unification OAC: Operation All Clear PLA: People’s Liberation Army PREPAK: People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak PRIO: Peace Research Institute in Oslo SATP: South Asian Terrorism Portal SFP: Security Force Personnel SSG: Pakistan’s Special Service Groups SOO: Suspension of Operations TNVF: Tripura National Volunteer Force UCDP: Uppsala Data Conflict Program ULFA: United Liberation Front of Asom/Assam UNLF: United National Liberation Front YMA: Young Mizo Association vi Table of contents Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………………iii Acronyms……………………………………………………………………………………...v 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 2.0 Recurring conflict and background .................................................................................. 5 2.1 What is recurring conflict?.......................................................................................... 5 2.2 Background to the Northeast ...................................................................................... 9 3.0 Theory ............................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 International level ..................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Federal level .............................................................................................................. 24 3.3 Group level – Horizontal Inequalities ....................................................................... 28 4.0 Methodology and Research Design ................................................................................. 33 4.1 Validity ..................................................................................................................... 37 4.2 Variables in the thesis ............................................................................................... 39 5.0 Empirical evidence for recurring conflicts .................................................................... 41 5.1 International level ..................................................................................................... 41 5.1.1 China ................................................................................................................. 42 5.1.2 Pakistan ............................................................................................................. 44 5.1.3 Bangladesh ........................................................................................................ 46 5.1.4 Myanmar ........................................................................................................... 47 5.1.5 Bhutan ............................................................................................................... 50 5.1.6 Look East Policy ............................................................................................... 52 5.1.7 Trade ................................................................................................................. 53 5.2 Federal level .............................................................................................................. 55 5.2.1 Power of the government and the States ........................................................... 57 5.2.2 Asymmetry and the Sixth Schedule .................................................................. 58 5.2.3 Integration and state capability of Nagaland and Mizoram .............................. 60 5.2.4 Cosmetic federalism .......................................................................................... 63 5.2.5 “State power” of the rebels ............................................................................... 65 5.2.6 Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act ................................................................. 67 5.3 Group level – Horizontal Inequalities ....................................................................... 69 vii 5.3.1 Cultural Horizontal Inequalities ........................................................................ 70 5.3.2 Political Horizontal Inequalities ........................................................................ 71 5.3.3 Inter-group relationships and support from the people ..................................... 73 5.3.4 The issue of migration ....................................................................................... 75 5.3.5 Recognition and treatment by the Indian government ...................................... 79 5.3.6 Identity in Nagaland and Mizoram ................................................................... 80 6.0 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 83 7.0 References ......................................................................................................................... 85 Appendix A: Number of fatalities in Northeast India ....................................................... 95 Appendix B: The different insurgency groups in Northeast today ................................... 97 Appendix C: AFSPA .............................................................................................................. 99 Appendix D: Ethnic groups in Northeast India ................................................................. 100 List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 1: Fatalities in Northeast India 2006-2013 ....................................................................... 2 Table 2: Relationship between variables and hypotheses ........................................................ 40 Table 3: Summary of hypotheses ............................................................................................. 83 Table 4: Fatalities in Northeast India from 2006-2013 ............................................................ 95 Table 5: Ethnic groups in Arunachal Pradesh ........................................................................ 100 Table 6: Ethnic groups in Assam ........................................................................................... 100 Table 7: Ethnic groups in Manipur ........................................................................................ 101 Table 8: Ethnic groups in Meghalaya .................................................................................... 102 Table 9: Ethnic groups in Mizoram ........................................................................................ 102 Table 10: Ethnic groups in Nagaland ..................................................................................... 103 Table 11: Ethnic groups in Tripura ........................................................................................ 103 Figures Figure 1: Map of Northeast India ............................................................................................. 11 Figure 2: Relationship between dependent and independent variables .................................... 39 viii 1.0 Introduction What makes a conflict continue for several years? Why are we not able to stop wars from starting again after resolutions have been found? The answers