Appendix BB – Technical Analysis on the Preferred Alternative Appendix BB – Technical Analysis on the Preferred Alternative Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ BB-1 2. SERVICE .................................................................................................................................................... BB-2 2.1 STATION IDENTIFICATION ............................................................................................................................. BB-2 2.1.1 Station Typology ............................................................................................................................... BB-3 2.1.2 Existing Stations ................................................................................................................................ BB-4 2.1.3 New Stations ..................................................................................................................................... BB-8 2.1.4 Summary ......................................................................................................................................... BB-12 2.2 REPRESENTATIVE SERVICE PLAN DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................. BB-18 2.3 SERVICE PLAN STRUCTURE ......................................................................................................................... BB-20 2.4 LEVEL OF SERVICE ..................................................................................................................................... BB-20 2.4.1 Intercity-Express ............................................................................................................................. BB-23 2.4.2 Metropolitan ................................................................................................................................... BB-24 2.4.3 Intercity-Corridor-Other ................................................................................................................. BB-25 2.4.4 Regional Rail ................................................................................................................................... BB-26 2.5 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. BB-28 2.5.1 No Action Alternative ..................................................................................................................... BB-28 2.5.2 Preferred Alternative ...................................................................................................................... BB-29 3. RIDERSHIP .............................................................................................................................................. BB-31 3.1 KEY INTERCITY RIDERSHIP DRIVERS .............................................................................................................. BB-31 3.2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................... BB-33 3.2.1 Interregional Model ........................................................................................................................ BB-33 3.2.2 Regional Models ............................................................................................................................. BB-39 3.2.3 Integration of the Interregional and Regional Forecasts ................................................................ BB-40 3.3 ALTERNATIVES DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................... BB-41 3.3.1 Demographic Forecasts .................................................................................................................. BB-41 3.3.2 Service Level Forecasts (Non-Rail Modes) ...................................................................................... BB-43 3.3.3 No Action Alternative ..................................................................................................................... BB-43 3.3.4 Preferred Alternative ...................................................................................................................... BB-46 3.4 FORECASTS.............................................................................................................................................. BB-49 3.4.1 Rail-Linked Trips .............................................................................................................................. BB-50 3.4.2 Rail Passenger Miles ....................................................................................................................... BB-54 3.4.3 Non-Rail-Linked Trips and Automobile Vehicle-Miles of Travel ..................................................... BB-55 3.4.4 Peak-Hour, Peak-Direction at Key Screenlines ............................................................................... BB-56 3.5 KEY FINDINGS .......................................................................................................................................... BB-58 3.5.1 Trip Characteristics and Travel Markets ......................................................................................... BB-58 3.5.2 Market Responses .......................................................................................................................... BB-58 3.5.3 Service Variable Sensitivities .......................................................................................................... BB-58 3.6 RISK AND UNCERTAINTY ............................................................................................................................ BB-60 3.6.1 Data Inputs Uncertainty .................................................................................................................. BB-60 3.6.2 Model Uncertainty .......................................................................................................................... BB-61 3.7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................... BB-62 3.7.1 Rail Fare Structure .......................................................................................................................... BB-62 3.7.2 Reliability ........................................................................................................................................ BB-64 3.7.3 Air Fare Adjustment ........................................................................................................................ BB-64 3.7.4 Alternative Specific Constants Adjustment .................................................................................... BB-66 3.7.5 Summary ......................................................................................................................................... BB-72 4. CAPITAL COSTS....................................................................................................................................... BB-73 Tier 1 Final EIS Page | BB-i Volume 1 (Preferred Alternative) Appendix BB – Technical Analysis on the Preferred Alternative 4.1 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................... BB-73 4.1.1 Unallocated Contingency ................................................................................................................ BB-73 4.1.2 New Segment .................................................................................................................................. BB-73 4.1.3 New Track ....................................................................................................................................... BB-74 4.1.4 No Action Alternative ..................................................................................................................... BB-74 4.2 ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................ BB-74 4.2.1 New Carrollton, MD to Halethorpe, MD New Track ....................................................................... BB-75 4.2.2 B&P Tunnel New Segment .............................................................................................................. BB-75 4.2.3 Wilmington New Segment .............................................................................................................. BB-75 4.2.4 Philadelphia New Segment – Baldwin, PA, to Philadelphia 30th Street Station via Philadelphia International Airport .................................................................................................................................... BB-75 4.2.5 Secaucus/Bergen Loop New Segment ............................................................................................ BB-75 4.2.6 Old Saybrook-Kenyon New Segment .............................................................................................. BB-76 4.2.7 Branford, CT, to Guilford, CT New Track ......................................................................................... BB-76 4.2.8 Pawtucket, RI, to Hebronville, MA New Track ...............................................................................