Aylesbury Vale District Housing Land Supply Position as at end March 2012 – updated September 2012 Introduction This document sets out the housing land supply position in Aylesbury Vale District as at 31st March 2012. It updates the document previously published in July 2012 to include a buffer of 5% in the housing requirement. Lists of sites included in the housing land supply are given in Appendices 1 and 2. Assessment of current housing land supply The current supply of housing land in the District is made up from: Sites with planning permission; Sites that do not yet have planning permission, but that have been approved in principle, subject to the completion of a Section 106 or planning obligation agreement; Sites that are allocated in the Aylesbury Vale District Local Plan but that do not yet have planning permission or approval subject to a Section 106 agreement. All sites for 5 dwellings or more that are included in the supply have been individually assessed as being available, suitable and achievable. Wherever possible we have obtained up- to-date estimates of build rates from housing developers. All sites for under 5 dwellings that have full planning permission have been included in the supply, but the overall total has been subjected to a 10% discount to account for the fact that some sites will not be implemented. Summary of housing land supply position Number of dwellings (net of losses) Aylesbury Rest of District North East Total Aylesbury Vale Deliverable sites with 3,898 1,679 350 5,927 planning permission Deliverable sites not yet 2,965 94 0 3,059 with planning permission but approved subject to S106 Deliverable sites 147 36 0 183 identified in AVDLP but not yet with planning permission or approved subject to S106 Total deliverable 7,010 1,809 350 9,169 supply 2012-2031 Out of this total supply, the number of dwellings expected to be delivered in the next two five year periods is: Aylesbury Rest of District North East Total Aylesbury Vale Deliverable supply 3,137 1,778 140 5,055 2012-2017 Deliverable supply 3,095 1,315 210 4,620 2013-2018 1 It can be seen that 5,055 dwellings are deliverable within the 5 year period 2012-2017 (an average annual figure of 1,011 dwellings). When these figures are compared against the trajectory of housing delivery that has taken place within the district, they indicate that there is sufficient supply to deliver an increased level of housing over the next 5 years, compared to the previous 5 years (the average annual number of dwellings completed over 2007-2012 was 844). South East Plan policy MKAV1 states that provision will be made for at least 26,890 dwellings in Aylesbury Vale District between 2006 and 2026 as follows: Aylesbury 16,800 (840 per annum) North East Aylesbury Vale 5,390 (269.5 per annum) (South West Milton Keynes) Rest of District 4,700 (235 per annum) Total 26,890 (1344.5 per annum) The housing land supply tables are presented below. These are shown firstly for the five year period 2012 to 2017, for the whole District and also disaggregated into Aylesbury, Rest of District, and North East Aylesbury Vale. In accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework (paragraph 47) a buffer of 5% is added to the requirement. The same calculations are then shown for the period 2013 to 2018. Housing land supply for 1st April 2012 to 31st March 2017 District Aylesbury Rest of North East District Aylesbury Vale SEP requirement 6,723 4,200 1,175 1,348 Pre-2012 deficit or oversupply -3,232 -2,320 705 -1,617 Adjustment to requirement * 1,154 829 -252 578 Total 5 year requirement 7,787 5,029 923 1926 Total 5 year requirement plus 8,176 5,280 969 2,022 additional buffer of 5% Total projected supply from 5,055 3,137 1,778 140 deliverable sites Projected supply as percentage 61.8% 59.4% 183.5% 6.9% of requirement (3.1 years) (3.0 years) (9.2 years) (0.3 years) *This adjustment takes account of the number of actual housing completions in the period 2006 to 2012. In most cases this has fallen short of the SEP requirement for that period, however in the Rest of District this has exceeded the SEP requirement (as shown in the second row of the table). The deficit (or oversupply) is added to (or subtracted from) the SEP requirement for the remaining 14 years of the SEP period. So for example, for Aylesbury, the requirement for the first five years is increased by 5 x 2320 / 14. 2 Housing land supply for 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2018 District Aylesbury Rest of North East District Aylesbury Vale SEP requirement 6,723 4,200 1,175 1,348 Pre-2013 deficit or oversupply -3,551 -2,628 964 -1,887 Adjustment to requirement * 1,366 1,011 -371 726 Total 5 year requirement 8,089 5,211 804 2,074 Total 5 year requirement plus 8,493 5,472 844 2,178 additional buffer of 5% Total projected supply from 4,620 3,095 1,315 210 deliverable sites Projected supply as percentage 54.4% 56.6% 155.8% 9.6% of requirement (2.7 years) (2.8 years) (7.8 years) (0.5 years) *This adjustment takes account of the number of actual housing completions in the period 2006 to 2012 and the number of projected completions from 2012 to 2013. In most cases this has fallen short of the SEP requirement for that period, however in the Rest of District this has exceeded the SEP requirement (as shown in the second row of the table). The deficit (or oversupply) is added to (or subtracted from) the SEP requirement for the remaining 13 years of the SEP period. So for example, for Aylesbury, the requirement for the first five years is increased by 5 x 2628 / 13. Details of individual sites The tables in Appendices 1 and 2 below list all the individual sites that make up the housing land supply figures given in the tables above. 3 Appendix 1: List of sites contributing to the projected housing supply Estimated number of completions Deliverability commentary Status as at Total number 2012-2031 * 2012-2017 2013-2018 Available Suitable Achievable 31/03/2012 of dwellings (five years) (five years) Aylesbury - With Planning Permission Berryfields Major AVDLP & 3000 2814 1064 1100 Under construction. Contact made with Development Area (MDA) Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Weedon Hill MDA AVDLP & 1022 292 292 232 Under construction. Estimated completion (Buckingham Park) Permission rate from developers/agents. Stoke Mandeville Hospital AVDLP & 330 172 172 137 Under construction. Contact made with (south part & some land Permission developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. outside allocation), Lower Road Gatehouse Quarter Permission 370 292 292 200 Under construction. Contact made with developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Former T.A. Centre, Oxford AVDLP & 94 94 94 0 Under construction. Contact made with Road Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Hartwell Sidings, Oxford Road Permission 75 75 75 75 Assumed to be completed by 2015/16. (extension of time limit applied for) Former Dayla, 80-100 High Permission 39 39 39 39 Site being marketed. Assumed to be Street (extension of time completed by 2015/16. limit applied for) Mandeville School, Ellen Permission 34 34 34 28 Contact made with developers/agents. Road Estimated completion rate provided. Site of Former 42 to 44, Mill Permission 23 23 23 0 Under construction. Contact made with Street developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. 4 Jansel Square, Brentwood Permission 20 20 20 20 Contact made with developers/agents. Way, Aylesbury Estimated completion date provided. Walton Court Centre, Permission 18 18 18 18 Contact made with developers/agents. Aylesbury Estimated completion date provided. Sites < 5 dwellings (see 25 25 17 appendix 2 below) Aylesbury Total - With Planning Permission 3898 2148 1866 Rest of District - With Planning Permission Land to south of the A421 and Permission 700 700 700 600 Under construction. Contact made with east of A413, London Road, developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Buckingham Former Princess Mary’s AVDLP & 400 67 67 0 Under construction. Contact made with Hospital, Wendover Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Verney Road, Winslow AVDLP & 218 153 153 117 Under construction. Contact made with permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Moreton Road, Buckingham AVDLP & 200 21 21 0 Nearing completion. Contact made with permission developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. Former Pitstone cement works AVDLP & 164 25 25 0 Under construction. Contact made with permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Bridge Street, Buckingham AVDLP & 103 26 26 0 Under construction. Contact made with permission developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Land off Brickhill Way and Permission 98 96 96 56 Under construction. Contact made with Sandstone Close, Calvert developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Green 5 Tingewick Road, Buckingham Permission 93 93 62 93 Completions assumed to commence in (extension of time 2015/16. limit applied for) Haddenham & Thame Permission 72 72 72 72 Contact made with developers/agents. Parkway Station, Thame Road, Estimated completion date provided. Haddenham Former Spicer Hallfield, Permission 48 42 42 0 Under construction. Contact made with Banks Road, Haddenham developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. County Farm, Wendover Permission 19 19 19 19 Site to be marketed. Assumed to be Road, Weston Turville completed by 2015/16.