Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium Report ITRC WS2 IUK infrastructure hazard and data report Sarah Dunn & Craig Robson November 2013 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION ITRC WS2 IUK Infrastructure Hazard and Data Report SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 3 SECTION 2: REVIEW OF RISKS IN THE UK AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT TO NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE .............................. 5 2.1: Natural Hazards ...................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1: Weather Related Risks ...................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1.1: Flooding ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1.2: Windstorms and Gales .............................................................................................................................. 9 2.1.1.3: Severe Winter Weather (including Low Temperatures, Heavy Snow and Ice Storms) ............................ 10 2.1.1.4: Heatwave ................................................................................................................................................. 12 2.1.1.5: Drought ................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2: Ground Condition Risks ................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2.1: Coastal erosion ........................................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.2.2: Landslides and Embankment Failures ..................................................................................................... 15 2.1.2.3: Subsidence............................................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.3: Other Risks ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1.3.1: Space Weather ........................................................................................................................................ 17 2.1.3.2: Meteor Strikes ......................................................................................................................................... 19 2.1.3.3: Volcanic Eruption..................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.3.4: Earthquake .............................................................................................................................................. 20 2.1.3.5: Tsunami ................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.2: Man-Made Hazards .............................................................................................................................. 23 2.2.1: Deliberate ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 2.2.1.1: Catastrophic terrorist attack ................................................................................................................... 23 2.2.1.2: Cyber Attacks ........................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1.3: Public disorder ......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1.4: Disruptive industrial action...................................................................................................................... 25 2.2.1.5: Aging Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................. 26 2.2.2: Accidental ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 2.2.2.1: Major industrial accidents ....................................................................................................................... 28 2.2.2.2: Severe Wildfires....................................................................................................................................... 28 SECTION 3: REVIEW OF CURRENT HAZARD DATASETS ................................................................................................ 30 3.1: Natural Hazards .................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1.1: Weather related hazards ................................................................................................................................. 30 3.1.1.1: Flooding ................................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1.1.2: Windstorms and gales ............................................................................................................................. 37 3.1.1.3: Severe winter weather ............................................................................................................................ 38 3.1.1.4: Heatwaves ............................................................................................................................................... 41 3.1.1.5: Drought ................................................................................................................................................... 43 3.1.2: Ground condition hazards ............................................................................................................................... 46 3.1.2.1: Coastal erosion ........................................................................................................................................ 46 3.1.2.2: Landslides and embankment failures ...................................................................................................... 51 3.1.2.3: Subsidence............................................................................................................................................... 52 3.1.3: Other risks ....................................................................................................................................................... 56 3.1.3.1: Space weather ......................................................................................................................................... 56 3.1.3.2: Meteor strikes ......................................................................................................................................... 57 3.1.3.3: Volcanic eruption .................................................................................................................................... 59 3.1.3.4: Earthquake .............................................................................................................................................. 60 3.1.3.5: Tsunami ................................................................................................................................................... 63 3.2: Man-Made Hazards .............................................................................................................................. 64 3.2.1: Deliberate ........................................................................................................................................................ 64 3.2.1.1: Catastrophic terrorist attack ................................................................................................................... 64 3.2.1.2: Cyber attacks ........................................................................................................................................... 65 Page 1 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION 3.2.1.3: Public disorder ......................................................................................................................................... 66 3.2.1.4: Disruptive industrial action...................................................................................................................... 66 3.2.1.5: Aging infrastructure ................................................................................................................................. 68 3.2.2: Accidental ........................................................................................................................................................ 68 3.2.2.1: Major industrial accidents ....................................................................................................................... 68 3.2.2.2: Severe wildfires ....................................................................................................................................... 69 SECTION 4: REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................................