Project on Nuclear Issues: A Collection of Papers from the 2013 Conference Series the 2013 Conference from Papers of A Collection Issues: on Nuclear Project Project on Nuclear Issues A Collection of Papers from the 2013 Conference Series 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW | Washington, DC 20036 t. (202) 887-0200 | f. (202) 775-3199 | www.csis.org ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK SARAH MINOT SARAH 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Lanham, MD 20706 t. (800) 462-6420 | f. (301) 429-5749 | www.rowman.com Cover photos: U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jonathan Snyder/RELEASED. ISBN 978-1-4422-4035-3 ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Ë|xHSLEOCy240353z v*:+:!:+:! EDITOR Sarah Minot NOVEMBER 2014 Blank Project on Nuclear Issues A Collection of Papers from the 2013 Conference Series EDITOR Sarah Minot AUTHORS Marie Arrieta Ari Kattan Hugh Chalmers Jarret Lafl eur Kit Conklin Shane Mason Robert Crockett Christopher Nelson Kyle Deming Marc Quint Mark Ekman Kera Rolsen Jeffrey Fields Benjamin Rusek Sarah Jacobs Gamberini Gary Sampson Edward Geist November 2014 ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofi t orga ni za tion headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affi liated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to fi nding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security, regional stability, and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive offi cer in 2000. CSIS does not take specifi c policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2014 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978- 1- 4422- 4035- 3 (pb); 978-1- 4422- 4036- 0 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefi eld 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202- 887- 0200 | www.csis.org 301- 459- 3366 | www .rowman .com Contents Introduction v Sarah Minot Preventing Nuclear Terrorism from the Inside Out: A Systems View of Security 1 Marie Arrieta and Mark Ekman Brothers in Arms? The United Kingdom’s Nuclear Warhead Dilemma 14 Hugh Chalmers The Internet of Things and Nonproliferation: Predicting How Ubiquitous Sensing Technology Will Affect the Nonproliferation Mission Space 29 Kit Conklin National Security Implications of Eliminating Nuclear Weapons 46 Robert Crockett Victory by Any Means? Evaluating the Implications of Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons for South Asian Strategic Stability 56 Kyle Deming Exploring States’ Nonproliferation Decisionmaking 68 Jeffrey Fields Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons Arms Control: Key Challenges for the United States 83 Sarah Jacobs Gamberini MAGIC- MISSILE: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Strategic Nuclear Exchanges 98 Edward Geist Missile Defense in the Persian Gulf: Objectives and Challenges 112 Ari Kattan | III Triads, Dyads, and Interoperability: A Structured Approach to Tracing the Implications of Diversity on Deterrent Force Reliability 128 Jarret Lafl eur India’s Ballistic Missile Defense Program: Implications for Nuclear Stability in South Asia 149 Shane Mason Gaps in International Trade Data: Highlighting Potential Trade in Proliferation- Related Technologies with Iran 164 Christopher Nelson Preserving U.S. Strategic Nuclear Delivery Systems beyond 2030: Climbing the Modernization Mountain 177 Marc Quint Nuclear Deterrence: Millennials Inheriting the Fight 194 Kera Rolsen Near- Term Confi dence- Building Measures for the CTBT 207 Benjamin Rusek Wither the Nuclear Umbrella? U.S. Nuclear Assurances to Japan in a Changing Northeast Asian Security Environment 217 Gary Sampson IV | SARAH MINOT Introduction Sarah Minot1 The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) launched the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) in 2003 in order to revitalize and strengthen a community of nuclear weap- ons experts whose training and background increasingly emphasize multidisciplinary expertise, especially among younger generations. In support of this goal, the PONI confer- ence series was created to provide a forum for facilitating new and innovative thinking about how to address the evolving role of nuclear weapons in international security and to gather people from across the policy and technical communities to discuss key issues. The conference series continues to place strong emphasis on featuring the ideas of rising ex- perts in the fi eld, who are uniquely positioned to advance new thinking and who represent the next generation of leaders from across the nuclear enterprise. The 2013 conference series included events at Northrop Grumman in May, Sandia National Laboratory in July, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies in December, before concluding with a Capstone Conference at Offutt Air Force Base, home of the U.S. Strategic Command, in March 2014. The papers included in this volume are a collec- tion of some of the pre sen ta tions delivered at the Capstone Conference. Spanning a wide range of technical and policy issues, these selected papers hope to further discussion in their respective areas, as well as contribute to the success of the greater nuclear community. 1. Sarah Minot is the program coordinator and research associate for the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at CSIS. She holds an MA in confl ict resolution from Georgetown University and a BA in po litical science and international relations from the College of Wooster. | V Preventing Nuclear Terrorism from the Inside Out: A Systems View of Security Marie Arrieta and Mark Ekman1 s nuclear technology advances over time, the nature and threat of nuclear terrorism A adapts accordingly. In response to this evolving threat, a number of nuclear nonprolifera- tion programs have been established, including programs focusing on nuclear material de- sign; nuclear material safeguards and security; nuclear energy system design; and the deterrence, detection, and interdiction of nuclear materials. Each program addresses different aspects of nuclear security regarding potential nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Although the ultimate objective of each program is to address the emerging terrorist threat, these programs individually represent distinct concerns. Integrating and optimizing each individual program into a larger system as a complex “system of systems” can more effectively combat the nuclear terrorist threat. This system of systems approach could lead to a better understanding of possible emergent behaviors present across these programs and improved approaches to optimize cost, per for mance, and overall effectiveness of these programs. Analysis of the full spectrum of nuclear material security to include nuclear material design; nuclear material safeguards and security; nuclear energy system design; and deter- rence, detection, and interdiction is necessary to better meet the world’s growing energy needs while minimizing the risk of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. This research dis- cusses the various aspects of the nuclear material life cycle and the diverse nuclear nonprolif- eration programs that could benefi t from a system of systems perspective. Introduction Signifi cant multinational nuclear nonproliferation efforts exist throughout the world today as the risks and dangers of nuclear terrorism are very real. In a 2009 speech in Prague, U.S. 1. Marie Arrieta is a nuclear engineer at Sandia National Laboratories. Mark Ekman is a manager of the Secure Commerce & Border Systems at Sandia National Laboratories. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi- program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE- AC04- 94AL85000. | 1 president Barack Obama stated that a terrorist acquiring a nuclear weapon “is the most immediate and extreme threat to global security.”2 He reiterated this message one year later at the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit when he stated, “It is increasingly clear that the danger of nuclear terrorism is one of the greatest threats to global security—to our collec- tive security.”3 Nuclear nonproliferation initiatives are led by multiple U.S. government agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State (DOS), and the Department of Energy (DOE), and encompass a wide variety of policies, treaties, re- search and development, and other technical endeavors. For example, DHS manages the U.S. government’s activities in developing the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA), “a worldwide network