Town of Provincetown, MA Increasing Coastal Resiliency and Reducing Infrastructure Vulnerability by Mapping Inundation Pathways FINAL REPORT Project funded in part by the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Coastal Resilience Grant Program Contact: Richard J. Waldo, P.E. Town of Provincetown Department of Public Works - Director 2 Mayflower St. - Room 74. Provincetown MA 02657 Phone 508-487-7060 Email : [email protected] June 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGENO. Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................................ES-1 1. Introduction & Background Information...........................................................................................................1-1 1.1 Community Information ...............................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Natural Hazards Impacting Provincetown..................................................................................................1-2 1.3 Responding to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise at the Local Level..................................................1-4 1.4 Tide Guage installation................................................................................................................................1-5 1.5 Community Observations............................................................................................................................1-5 1.6 Critical Facilities & Infrastructure ................................................................................................................1-6 2. Storm Tide Pathways – Methods & Results .....................................................................................................2-1 2.1 Methods........................................................................................................................................................2-1 Desktop Analysis .........................................................................................................................................2-3 Field Work....................................................................................................................................................2-4 Data Processing ..........................................................................................................................................2-5 3. Risk Assessment..................................................................................................................................................3-1 3.1 Methodology.................................................................................................................................................3-1 Scope of Assessment and Data Gathering................................................................................................3-1 Consequence of Failure Assessment.........................................................................................................3-1 Likelihood of Failure Assessment...............................................................................................................3-3 3.2 Risk Analysis Interpretation & Results .......................................................................................................3-5 3.3 Risk Interpretation for Highest Risk Scores or “Critical” to the Community .............................................3-6 Municipal Airport..........................................................................................................................................3-7 Police Department .......................................................................................................................................3-7 Town Hall .....................................................................................................................................................3-8 Next Steps....................................................................................................................................................3-8 4. Recommendations for Adaptive Strategies .....................................................................................................4-1 4.1 Massachusetts Climate Change Adaptation Report..................................................................................4-1 4.2 Relevant Action Items from Other Provincetown Planning Projects.........................................................4-2 Provincetown Hazard Mitigation Plan Update ...........................................................................................4-3 Strategic Beach Stabilization Pilot Project .................................................................................................4-4 Provincetown Harbor Plan ..........................................................................................................................4-5 4.3 Adaptive Strategies .....................................................................................................................................4-5 Adaptive Strategies for Highest Risk Critical Facilities & Infrastructure...................................................4-7 4.4 Summary....................................................................................................................................................4-28 Provincetown, MA (228482.01) i Woodard & Curran Adaptive Strategies to Increase Coastal Resilience June 2016 TABLES Table ES-1: Critical Facilities & Infrastructure to Be Impacted by a Storm Tide Pathway .........................................ES-1 Table 1-1: Potential Impacts to Buildings & Infrastructure from Natural Hazards..........................................................1-3 Table 1-2: Site Visit Observations/Themes ......................................................................................................................1-6 Table 1-3: Provincetown Critical Facilities & Infrastructure.............................................................................................1-6 Table 1-4: Provincetown Critical Facilities & Infrastructure Flood Zone & Storm Tide Pathway Status.....................1-10 Table 1-5: Provincetown Inventory of Standby Generators (January 2016) ................................................................1-12 Table 2-1: Key Water Elevation and Tidal Datum............................................................................................................2-1 Table 3-1: CoF Scoring Matrix ..........................................................................................................................................3-2 Table 3-2: LoF Scoring Matrix ...........................................................................................................................................3-4 Table 3-3: Asset Criticality Ranking ..................................................................................................................................3-5 Table 4-1: Relevant Action Items from Provincetown Hazard Mitigation Plan (2016)...................................................4-3 Table 4-2: Critical Facilities & Infrastructure to Be Impacted by a Storm Tide Pathway ...............................................4-5 Table 4-3: Provincetown Pump Stations...........................................................................................................................4-9 Table 4-4: Provincetown Adaptation Strategies & Recommendations .........................................................................4-14 FIGURES Figure 1-1: Provincetown Environmental Justice Area & Potential Hurricane Flooding................................................1-2 Figure 1-2: Provincetown Critical Facilities & Infrastructure............................................................................................1-9 Figure 2-1: Tidal Datum Profiles for Boston and Provincetown ......................................................................................2-2 Figure 2-2: Downtown Provincetown, Draped Aerial Photograph Over LiDAR Surface................................................2-4 Figure 3-1: FEMA FIRM Map - Town Assets Within Floodplain Zones..........................................................................3-4 Figure 3-2: Projected Impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) With 4-ft. of SLR .....................................................................3-5 Figure 4-1: Downtown Provincetown Storm Tide Pathway Results................................................................................4-8 Figure 4-2: Provincetown Airport.....................................................................................................................................4-11 Figure 4-3: Shank Painter Road Storm Tide Pathways.................................................................................................4-13 Figure 4-4: Coast Guard Station Storm Tide Pathway Results.....................................................................................4-21 Figure 4-5: Route 6 and 6A Storm Tide Pathway Results.............................................................................................4-22 Figure 4-6: Pump Station #8 – West End Storm Tide Pathway Results.......................................................................4-23 Figure 4-7: Central Vac Station, Stormwater Pumphouse & Provincetown Public Television Storm Tide Pathway Results.................................................................................................................................4-24