US-JAPAN RELATIONS US-JAPAN RELATIONS AND THE TRUMP EFFECT SHEILA SMITH, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN R ELATIONS CHARLES MCCLEAN, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO The US presidential election was the primary influence affecting US-Japan relations in the fall of 2016. Japan was brought into the spotlight during the campaign with Trump repeatedly criticizing Tokyo for unfair trade practices and free riding in the alliance. The outcome of the election left many Japanese worried about the future of the alliance. Prime Minister Abe quickly reached out to President-elect Trump, arranging a meeting with him in New York on Nov. 18. Beyond the attention given to the election, the LDP and Abe also sought to support the Obama administration by ratifying the Trans- Pacific Partnership and promoting maritime capacity building in Southeast Asia. President Obama and Prime Minister Abe met for the last time in Hawaii on Dec. 27. Uncertainty abounds on the economic and strategic fronts in the coming year, but the biggest unknown for the bilateral relationship will be the new US president and his approach to Asia. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal on East Asia Bilateral Relations, Vol. 18, No. 3, Jan. 2017. Preferred citation: Sheila Smith and Charles McClean, “US-Japan Relations: US-Japan Relations and the Trump Effect,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 9-16. US-JAPAN RELATIONS | JANUARY 2 017 9 US presidential election far harder line on enforcing existing trade arrangements, and crafting far more protectionist The US presidential election dominated the news in the policies toward China. fall of 2016, even in Tokyo. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump President-elect Donald Trump squared off in three debates in September and October as momentum built toward the Nov. 8 election. Japan rarely figures prominently in US elections, but the Expectations ran high for Clinton as polls suggested she candidacy of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential had a strong lead, but by mid-October there were election brought Japan back into the spotlight. Trump troubling signs. The hacking of the Clinton campaign’s repeatedly criticized Tokyo for its unfair trade practices email accounts and WikiLeaks’ publication of their and its free riding in the alliance, even going so far as to contents was attributed to Russian sources by US suggest Tokyo should acquire nuclear weapons and intelligence agencies. Further damage to the Clinton defend itself. These shock waves reverberated across campaign came when FBI Director James Comey the Pacific leaving many Japanese worried about the announced that new emails from Clinton’s personal future of the alliance should Trump win. With a desire server, which she had used while she was secretary of to shake-up the old order, Trump took aim at many of State during the first Obama administration, were being the postwar global institutions and argued that it was investigated for possible security violations. Meanwhile, time to put “America First.” polls began to show the Trump campaign making significant inroads in Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Trump’s win was a surprise to many in the US and Hampshire. On election night, Trump’s surprising wins abroad, and in the immediate aftermath of the election, in Michigan and Wisconsin, longstanding Democratic even the candidate himself seemed stunned at his strongholds, ensured his victory. victory. President Obama and the president-elect met quickly, two days after his electoral win, to set a course Trump secured 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232, for the transition. By year’s end, Trump had nominated passing the 270 electoral votes required to win. Clinton personnel for most of his Cabinet posts. His foreign conceded overnight, and two days later, the president- policy team includes Lt.Gen. (ret.) Michael Flynn as elect met President Obama in the White House to national security advisor, Gen. (ret.) James Mattis as organize the transition. The popular vote took time to secretary of Defense, and ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson count, however, and ultimately showed a 2.9 million for secretary of State. On the economic policy front, vote lead for Clinton. But despite protests, the Electoral Trump tapped former Goldman Sachs partner Steve College met on Dec. 19 to formalize the election of Mnuchin for secretary of Treasury, billionaire investor Donald Trump as the 45th US president. In addition, the Wilbur Ross for secretary of Commerce, and Robert Republican Party held onto its majorities in the House Lighthizer, a Washington lawyer and former trade of Representatives (241 seats to the Democrat’s 194 official for President Reagan, for US trade seats) and Senate (52 seats to the Democrat’s 46 seats), representative. In addition, he appointed Peter Navarro, ensuring that Trump will enter office with his party his Asia policy advisor for the campaign, to a new controlling both houses of Congress. position as director of the White House National Trade Council. The incoming administration’s Asia policy In Tokyo, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) pushed remains unclear, but early indications suggest relations forward ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership with China will define its approach to the region and (TPP) trade deal during the fall Diet session in the hope trade policy is likely to drive early priorities. of providing momentum for a possible vote in the lame- duck session of US Congress. Trump’s victory, however, Prime Minister Abe quickly reached out to President- ended hope that TPP would be ratified by the US in the elect Trump after the election, arranging a meeting with foreseeable future – if ever. Candidate Trump had been him in New York on Nov. 18 on his way to the APEC clear that he would oppose not only the TPP but also Economic Leaders Meeting in Lima, Peru. Abe had met call for a renegotiation of the North American Free the Democratic candidate for president, Hillary Clinton, Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and that these two items on Sept. 20 during his visit to New York for the UN were at the top of his list of things to do during his first General Assembly. The Trump-Abe meeting was 100 days in office. By year’s end, as Trump nominated characterized as a personal meeting, and no people for critical trade policy positions, it was clear government officials participated. After the meeting, that the incoming US administration would be taking a Abe told the awaiting press that he was confident he could “build a relationship of trust” with the president- 10 JANUARY 20 17 | US-JAPAN RELATIONS elect. Although the content of their conversation consideration of TPP before Trump takes office. The remained private, most believe that Abe sought to begin next day, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D- a conversation on the alliance and on the geopolitics of NY) told labor leaders at a meeting that the trade deal Asia. would not be ratified. By the end of the week, several Obama administration officials had said that they had Despite the personal overture by Abe, Tokyo has much given up trying to win congressional support for TPP in at stake as the Trump administration seeks to the lame-duck session, and that the future of the trade recalibrate US relations with China. The Abe Cabinet has deal would be up to Trump and Republican lawmakers. sought closer relations with Taiwan, and would have On Nov. 21, Trump released a video saying that he little problem with a Washington that seeks to would withdraw the US from TPP on Jan. 20, his first strengthen its support for Taipei. However, upending day in office. the one China policy could lead to significant deterioration in US-China relations, and to increased TPP’s future thus looks dire, yet some still hold out hope military tensions in and around Japan. Furthermore, for movement on trade under Trump, even if it takes a Abe has been a strong advocate of the TPP, and different form than TPP, given that there was general continues to advocate for US participation. The future support for free trade – at least prior to the election – economic foundations of the US-Japan relationship among the public, Republicans, and several of Trump’s could be shaken should the US pursue a more proposed Cabinet members. Vice President-elect Mike protectionist trade agenda. Pence was an avid proponent of TPP, but switched to opposing the deal in July when he joined the Republican The End of TPP? ticket. Rex Tillerson, Trump’s proposed secretary of State, previously heaped praise on TPP as CEO of Despite efforts made in both countries, progress on ExxonMobil. More recently, Trump’s picks to lead the ratifying the TPP trade agreement proved uneven Treasury (Steve Mnuchin) and Commerce (Wilbur throughout the fall in Japan and the US. Prime Minister Ross) departments have said that the Trump Abe took the lead in pushing the TPP agreement administration will certainly promote trade pacts, but forward in Japan, and managed to secure final that it will re-focus US negotiations toward completing ratification from the Diet on Dec. 9, despite some bilateral agreements, which could include Japan. Ross in resistance from opposition parties. President Obama, on particular has deep ties to Japan – he is chairman of the the other hand, originally hoped to ratify TPP in the Japan Society in New York and received the Order of the lame-duck session of Congress following the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star from the Japanese presidential election, but the victory by Trump, a government in 2014. On Dec. 1, Ross sent a delegation staunch opponent of the trade deal, put an end to any to meet Finance Minister Aso Taro in Tokyo to stress hopes for ratification by the US Congress.