BC Politics in the time of COVID-19: Public Opinion Research Release Date: July 29, 2020 July 2020 Update Field Dates: July 14, 2020 to July 20, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 BC Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In BC, Horgan is seeing very high approval on his handling of the outbreak, which we can also see impacting more general measures of overall government approval. He has also seen significant gains in his personal reputation, helping the BC NDP stay competitive despite having a weaker partisan base than the BC Liberals. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our July 2020 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from July 14th to July 20th with a weighted sample size of 300 BC residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from BC are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak and the impacts that is having on more general government approval and provincial vote choice. Government Approval The BC government continues to receive top marks on their performance generally and their handling of the outbreak more specifically. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL BC Mood: Nearly 3-in-4 (72%) say they are satisfied with the BC gov’t 4 in general while only 23% say they are dissatisfied Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in BC? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Satisfied: 72% 51% Dissatisfied: 23% 21% 16% 6% 6% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't Know Current data: July 2020 Current Current 2020 July data: satisfaction remains high at 72% high at remains satisfaction BC MoodTracking: 6% 40% 28% 26% NDP forms minority government with government minority NDPforms Aug-16 n=300] respondents; all of [asked in government the PROVINCIAL of performance with the you are satisfied speaking, how Generally Sep-16 support from Greens from support Feb-17 2017 Election:May May-17 Aug-17 Very satisfied Very Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 June,gov’t in high levels historically reaching After Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Very dissatisfied Very Apr-19 (2) BC May-19 are...? you say you Would ? Jun-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Don't Know Don't Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 21% 51% 16% 6% 6% 5 COVID-19 Handling: 4-in-5 (78%) say they approve of the BC gov’ts 6 handling of the COVID outbreak while only 8% disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way the BC Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Approve: 78% 46% 32% Disapprove: 8% 12% 6% 3% 1% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Approval of the provincial gov’ts handling 7 of COVID-19 is down 5 points directionally since June but still very high Do you approve or disapprove of the way the BC Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] 1% 5% 3% 8% 6% 12% 13% 11% 32% 38% 46% 24% Jul-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 (2) Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) Apr-20 Mar-20 (2) Mar-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: BC remains ahead of the provincial 8 average by seven points with 78% saying they approve % who approve of government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: BC Vs. Provincial Average [asked of all respondents; n=1500] 83% 78% Provincial Average 77% 76% 69% 70% 69% 71% 63% 71% 69% 70% 67% 66% 66% 68% British 62% 62% Columbia March 16- March 24- March 31- April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 May 29- June 19-23 July 14-20 18 26 April 2 June 1 Current data: July 2020 Read, Seen, Heard Those who report reading, hearing, or seeing something about Horgan in the last few days is steady since June, and continues to elicit mostly positive reactions. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL BC Read, Seen, Heard: 2-in-5 (40%) recall something about Horgan in 10 the last few days and of those who did, most were left more favourable Have you read, seen or heard anything about John Horgan in the last Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, few days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [Asked of those who have RSH; n=300] favourable towards John Horgan, or did it make no difference? [Asked of those who have RSH; n=120] 60% A lot less favourable 3% Less Favourable: 40% 12% Somewhat less favourable 9% Made no difference 45% Somewhat more favourable 23% More Favourable: 43% A lot more favourable 20% No Yes Current data: July 2020 Current Julydata: 2020 Note: hearing, or seeing anything about Horgan is steady sinceJune issteady about hearing,Horgan anything or seeing Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, 46% 54% Don't shown.notknow Aug-16 n=300] respondents; all of [asked about anything heard orseen read, you Have Sep-16 with government minority NDPforms Jan-17 Feb-17 Greens from support May-17 2017: May Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 John Horgan Horgan John May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Those who say they recall reading, reading, recall they Those who say Aug-18 days? few the last in Sep-18 Oct-18 Yes Nov-18 Dec-18 No Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 40% 60% 11 who RSH something in the last few days is also steady sinceJune isalsosteady days few in thelast something who RSH Tracking: Impact Heard, Seen, BC Read, Current Julydata: 2020 Note: 38% 13% 33% 3% 14% Don't shown.notknow Aug-16 [asked of those who have RSH; n=120]RSH; have who those of [asked towards a more lot feeling you leave hear see or read, you what Did Sep-16 with government minority NDPforms Jan-17 A lot more favourable more A lot John Horgan John Feb-17 Greens from support May-17 2017: May Aug-17 Oct-17 nodifference? itmake did or , Dec-17 Jan-18 Somewhat more favourable more Somewhat Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 favourable Sep-18 Made no no difference Made Oct-18 Nov-18 more somewhat , Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 The impact on respondents on respondents The impact Mar-19 favourable Somewhat less favourable Somewhat Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) May-19 less somewhat , Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 favourable A lot less favourable less A lot Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 less lot a or Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 favourable Jun-20 Jul-20 20% 23% 45% 9% 3% 12 13 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote and leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: A majority in BC say the main role of gov’t is to 14 create equal opportunity (58%) rather than redistribute wealth (32%) Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=300] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their To create equal opportunity so that decisions mainly on…? everyone can compete on their own to be 58% [asked of all respondents; n=300] the best they can be Their ability to afford the programs and 30% To redistribute wealth so that the poor services and disadvantaged have more than they 32% The public's need for the programs and would if left on their own 62% services Don't know 9% Don't know 10% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=300] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=300] The profit system brings out the worst in Too often the government listens to 41% 36% human nature. experts instead of common sense. The profit system teaches people the Provincial issues are complicated so 47% value of hard work and success. government should listen to experts when 50% it comes to policy. Don't know 12% Don't Know 15% Current data: July 2020 Value Clusters: Half of BC’ers are either Business Liberals (26%) or 15 Core Left (25%) Value clusters: Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense.