Shots fired: Unraveling the 2015 Surrey gang conflict using social network analysis by Surena Bains B.A. (Hons., First Class), Simon Fraser University, 2011 Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in the School of Criminology Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences © Surena Bains 2021 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2021 Copyright in this work rests with the author. Please ensure that any reproduction or re-use is done in accordance with the relevant national copyright legislation. Declaration of Committee Name: Surena Bains Degree: Master of Arts (Criminology) Thesis title: Shots fired: Unraveling the 2015 Surrey gang conflict using social network analysis Committee: Chair: Sheri Fabian University Lecturer, Criminology Martin Bouchard Supervisor Professor, Criminology Zachary Rowan Committee Member Assistant Professor, Criminology Gisela Bichler Examiner Professor, Department of Criminal Justice California State University, San Bernardino ii Ethics Statement iii Abstract The ever-changing gang landscape in British Columbia (BC) has seen periods of escalated retaliatory gang violence, most recently in 2015, in Surrey, BC, Canada. The ‘face’ of the gang problem in Surrey is that of South Asian males in their early twenties. Homicide among this population is an unrecognized public health crisis, as over the last decade, there have been over 150 deaths and counting of South Asian males related to gang violence in the Lower Mainland. A cross-disciplinary tool that police can use to advance their understanding of gangs, conflicts and violent victimization is social network analysis (SNA). The ego-networks of the 23 confirmed gang-related gun homicide or attempted homicide victims in Surrey, in 2015, are constructed using police data from 2011 to 2015. The present study a) assesses the overall structure to understand the Surrey gang conflict, b) conducts centrality analyses to identify those individuals (victims and non-victims) at the highest risk of gunshot victimization and c) explores the potential consequences of being central in the victim network. Results indicate that 299 of the 355 individuals in the overall network are connected to each other, including 18 of the 23 victims, who are more likely to be brokers. A high-risk group is identified, with two or more direct connections to victims that are at the highest risk of victimization. Finally, results show that 2016 and 2017 victims are among the most central in the network. Policy and practical implications are discussed with reference to these findings. Keywords: Social network analysis; Surrey; gangs; violence; conflicts; victims iv Dedication I dedicate this work to the memory of my Nanaji and Papaji (my grandfathers), whose strength, hard work and dedication to family shaped the person I have become. You are both a guiding light in my life, and have inspired me to be courageous, take risks, reach my highest potential and never give up. I hope I have made you proud. I also dedicate this work to the young men and women who have befallen victim to the gang life. It is never too late to turn things around. v Acknowledgements This process was one of the most challenging yet rewarding experiences of my life. My graduate career taught me many lessons – none greater than those in perspective, perseverance, confidence, connection, balance & justice. I appreciate the value of community and awareness SFU has given me. Pursuing higher education forces you to question, reason, challenge, evaluate and push boundaries. It has truly changed my life. I would wholeheartedly like to acknowledge everyone who played a role in this monumental academic accomplishment. To my parents: your belief in me has meant everything. You support me with love, understanding and patience in everything I do. You came to this beautiful country in the 70s and made a life for yourself. The values you have instilled in me – hard, honest work, a good education, respect, compassion and community, ground me and are at the heart of everything I do. I feel like I can do anything in life with you in my corner. To my family and friends: my sincerest thanks to you for your unwavering support. You have encouraged me and stood by my side during this long journey. It was not easy but having you lift me up during stressful times and share my joys during small milestones definitely helped. To my friends, many of whom are on the frontlines working with young people as police officers, educators, substance abuse professionals, researchers - I thank you for serving with heart and duty. To “E” Division RCMP and SFU’s Research Ethics Board: thank you for the permission to conduct this research. To my committee: thank you for helping me see my thesis in a different light, for your introspection and curiosity, the approval of my work and exemplary recognition. To my senior supervisor, Martin: what a ride it has been! My last and biggest thanks is to you. Your passion, drive and commitment to academia are second to none. Thank you for being patient with me, and providing me with advice and guidance throughout the research process. You saw me balance my academic and professional life and always gave me motivation to continue. vi This topic has always been close to my heart. There are two areas of research I have always had a keen interest in, policing and gangs, and this topic gave me a chance to delve deeper into both. I remember being a teenager reading the news about the senseless deaths attributed to gang violence that were occurring in my community. There is a strong need to reshape the conversation on gang violence and who we define as victims. Here is my small contribution. May your choices reflect your hopes, not your fears. – Nelson Mandela vii Table of Contents Declaration of Committee .................................................................................................. ii Ethics Statement ............................................................................................................... iii Abstract ............................................................................................................................. iv Dedication ......................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ viii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... x List of Figures ................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 2. Literature Review ...................................................................................... 7 2.1. Social Network Analysis .......................................................................................... 7 2.2. Gang Victimization .................................................................................................. 8 2.3. Social Contagion ................................................................................................... 10 2.4. What have Police Done with this Information? ...................................................... 14 2.5. Victim/Offender Nexus .......................................................................................... 19 2.6. Factors that Effect Homicide Victimization ............................................................ 22 2.6.1. Gang Membership .................................................................................... 22 2.6.2. Firearm Carrying ...................................................................................... 24 2.7. Co-offending .......................................................................................................... 26 2.8. How Does Murder Happen? .................................................................................. 29 2.9. The Current Study ................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 3. Data & Methods ....................................................................................... 32 3.1. Data Source .......................................................................................................... 33 3.2. Network Extractions: Associates & Ties ................................................................ 34 3.3. Associate Attributes .............................................................................................. 41 3.4. Network Measurements & Individual-Level Measurements .................................. 43 3.4.1. Network Measurements ........................................................................... 43 3.4.2. Individual-Level Measures: Centrality of Actors ....................................... 44 3.5. Co-offending Network ........................................................................................... 47 3.6. Subgroup Analyses ............................................................................................... 48 3.7. Analytic Strategy ................................................................................................... 49 Chapter 4. Results