49513 THE WORLD BANK GROUP WASHINGTON, D.C. TP-24 TRANSPORT PAPERS JUNE 2009 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized PRIVATE PARTICIPATION IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Lessons from Recent Experience in Europe and Central Asia V. Cuttaree, M. Humphreys, S. Muzira, and J-P Strand Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized TRANSPORT SECTOR BOARD PRIVATE PARTICIPATION IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Lessons from Recent Experience in Europe and Central Asia V. Cuttaree, M. Humphreys, S. Muzira, and J-P Strand THE WORLD BANK WASHINGTON, D.C. 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This volume is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. To order additional copies of this publication, please send an e-mail to the Transport Help Desk [email protected] Transport publications are available on-line at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/ CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................. VI ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................... VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... VIII 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ............................................................................. 1 1.1 CONSIDERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS ..................................................................... 1 1.2 CONSTRAINTS ON PUBLIC FINANCE ............................................................................ 2 1.3 RENEWED INTEREST IN PPPS .................................................................................. 2 2. REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON PRIVATE FINANCE .............................................................. 4 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 4 2.2 GLOBAL CONTEXT OF PRIVATE FINANCE ....................................................................... 4 2.3 DEVELOPMENT OF PRIVATE FINANCE IN THE CEE/SEE REGION ........................................... 6 3. REGIONAL EXPERIENCE AT PROJECT LEVEL ................................................................. 12 3.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 12 3.2 RETURNS AND RISKS FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR ........................................................... 14 3.3 VALUE FOR MONEY AS PUBLIC SECTOR PRIORITY .......................................................... 15 3.4 LEGAL, INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY FRAMEWORK ......................................................... 16 3.5 IMPLEMENTATION AND PLANNING ............................................................................ 22 3.6 PROJECT APPRAISAL ........................................................................................... 23 3.7 RISK SHARING ................................................................................................. 27 3.8 TRANSPARENT AND COMPETITIVE PROCUREMENT .......................................................... 29 3.9 PUBLIC SECTOR SUPPORT FOR PPP PROJECTS ............................................................. 32 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................... 33 4.1 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................. 33 4.2 COUNTRIES WITH EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN PPP ........................................................ 33 4.3 COUNTRIES WITH MODERATE EXPERIENCE IN PPP ........................................................ 34 4.4 COUNTRIES WITH LIMITED EXPERIENCE IN PPP ........................................................... 35 4.5 IMPLICATION OF THE CRISIS FOR ECA COUNTRIES ....................................................... 36 ANNEX A: CASE STUDIES ............................................................................................ 37 ANNEX B: IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ................................................................. 79 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 80 FIGURES Figure 2-1 : PPP Investment in All Sectors by Region (1993-2007) ................................................ 5 Figure 2-2 : PPP Investment in Transport by Region (1993-2007) ................................................. 5 Figure 2-3 : PPP Transport Investment in CEE/SEE & Share of ECA (1993-2007) ............................. 6 Figure 2-4 : PPP Investment in Transport in 1994-2000 and 2001-2007 ......................................... 8 Figure 2-5 : Number of Projects Reaching Financial Closure ........................................................10 Figure 2-6 : PPP Investment by Sub-sector in the CEE/SEE Countries (1993-2007) ........................ 11 Figure 3-1: Simplified Structure of Special Purpose Vehicle and Relationship with Lenders, Shareholders and Suppliers .................................................................................................... 14 BOXES Box 3-1: Generic Factors Driving Value for Money .....................................................................15 Box 3-2: Examples of PPP Units in ECA ....................................................................................17 Box 3-3: PPP Framework in the Czech Republic .........................................................................19 Box 3-4: Optimistic Traffic Forecasts and Public Resistance to Set Toll Rates: The Hungary M1/M15 Toll Motorway Project ............................................................................................................ 28 Box 3-5: Lack of Competitive and Transparent Procurement as Cause for Project Failure ................. 30 Box 3-6: Delays in Procurement of PPP Projects in Poland - A1 Toll Motorway Project...................... 31 Box 3-7: International Approaches to Competitive Procurement of Unsolicited Proposals ................. 32 TABLES Table 3-1: Credit Ratings of CEE and SEE Countries (February 2009) ...........................................21 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by Vickram Cuttaree (Infrastructure Economist), Martin Humphreys (Program Team Leader), Stephen Muzira (Transport Specialist), and Jukka-Pekka Strand (Financial Analyst), from the Transport Unit of the Sustainable Development Department (ECSSD) of the Europe and Central Asia Region. The team would also like to acknowledge the report would not have been possible without the contribution of Dr Andras Timar, who undertook much of the fieldwork in the countries of Central and South Eastern Europe. Thanks are also given to Motoo Konishi (Country Director, ECCU3 and former Sector Manager Transport, ECSSD), Henry Kerali (Sector Manager, Transport, ECSSD), Tim Irwin (formerly of the World Bank, now at LECG LLC) and Carolina Monsalve (Transport Economist, ECSSD) together with Peer Reviewers Sri Kumar Tadimalla (Sr. PPP Specialist, SASDT), Baher El-Hifnawi (Sr. Transport Economist, EASTE), Tomas S. Serebrisky (Sr. Infrastructure Economist, LCSTR), and Jeffrey Delmon (Sr. Infrastructure Specialist, FEU) for invaluable contributions in reviewing and helping to improve this report. The team would also like to acknowledge the formal and informal contributions from representatives of the respective Governments and other stakeholders within the ECA region, too numerous to name, who kindly provided their time and assistance during the course of the study. Finally, the report would not have been possible without grant support from the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), a multi-donor technical assistance facility that helps developing countries to improve the quality of their infrastructure through private sector involvement (for more information, see www.ppiaf.org). vi ABBREVIATIONS BOT Build Operate Transfer CEE Central and Eastern Europe DBFO Design Build Finance Operate DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio EAP