Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 11730 IN FOCUS October 29, 2020 Support 11633 Stock in Focus Aarti Industries MARKET LENS 11537 Intraday Pic MARICO Resistance 11878 Intraday Pick SIEMENS 12026 Intraday Pick UPL EQUITY INDICES Indices Absolute Change Percentage Change Domestic Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD BSE Sensex 39,922 (600) (1.5%) 4.9% (3.2%) CNX Nifty 11,730 (160) (1.3%) 4.3% (3.6%) S&P CNX 500 9,632 (116) (1.2%) 3.1% (2.4%) SENSEX 50 12,285 (174) (1.4%) 3.9% (3.6%) International Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD DJIA 26,520 (943) (3.4%) (4.5%) (7.1%) NASDAQ 11,005 (426) (3.7%) (1.5%) 22.7% NIKKEI 23,242 (177) (0.8%) 0.2% (1.8%) HANGSENG 24,354 (355) (1.4%) 3.9% (13.6%)) ADRs / GDRs Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Dr. Reddy’s Lab (ADR) 64.9 (3.1) (4.6%) (6.7%) 59.9% Tata Motors (ADR) 8.9 (0.6) (6.7%) (2.6%) (31.6%) STOCK IN FOCUS Infosys (ADR) 14.4 (0.5) (3.2%) 4.1% 39.3% f Aarti Industries’ revenue is likely to increase by ~8% YoY due to ICICI Bank (ADR) 10.6 (0.6) (5.4%) 7.4% (30.0%) demand revival and higher capacity utilization in Q2FY21. Its operating HDFC Bank (ADR) 58.6 (1.3) (2.2%) 17.2% (7.6%) capacity is expected to be >80%. Within the specialty chemicals Axis Bank (GDR) 33.2 (1.4) (3.9%) 12.9% (37.5%) segment, higher demand from the automobile sector is expected to Reliance Ind (GDR) 54.4 (0.8) (1.5%) (10.5%) 27.9% boost its volume. Further, its pharma business is expected to continue COMMODITY MARKET its growth trajectory by aiming for an annual growth rate of ~12-18%. Key Commodities Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD PAT is expected to grow by ~4% YoY on the back of the higher volume Brent Crude ($/bl) 40.0 0.4 0.9% (2.4%) (39.5%) in 2QFY21. Silver ($/Oz) 23.4 0.1 0.3% (0.2%) 29.6% Gold ($/Oz) 1,878.8 (0.5) (0.0%) (0.9%) 21.2% f Key long term triggers continue to be in pharma segment, where Copper LME ($/MT) 3.1 0.0 0.3% 1.4% 9.3% significant growth with diversification is seen across products/ Aluminium LME ($/MT) 1,810.0 (0.5) (0.1%) 3.9% 1.1% geographies and the geographic advantage its plants (13 for specialty chemicals and 4 for pharma) located in western India has by having CURRENCY RATES proximity to ports. Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD f We expect ARTO’s revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to witness 13%, 17%, and USD/INR 74.1 0.20 0.3% 0.2% 3.5% 20% CAGR, respectively over FY20-FY23E. Accordingly, we expect its EUR/INR 87.0 (0.27) (0.3%) 0.5% 8.3% RoCE/ROE to improve by 474bps/316bps during the same period. We RATES have BUY rating on ARTO with a 2-year Target Price of Rs1,209 Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD (23x of FY23E EPS). T-Bill - 91 D 3.2 0.02 0.00 (0.03) (0.36) 10 Year G-sec Yield 5.9 0.01 0.00 (0.03) 0.00 Intraday Picks INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (RS. CR) MARICO (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 363) BUY Category BUY SELL NET Prev For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs354- FII 7,833.4 8,964.4 (1,131.0) 3,514.9 350 for the target of Rs369 with a strict stop loss of Rs342. DII 3,843.2 3,841.8 1.5 (1,570.8) SIEMENS (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 1286) BUY EXCHANGE TURNOVER For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs1255- Exchange Rs Crore 1245 for the target of Rs1305 with a strict stop loss of Rs1224. BSE Equity 4,012.0 UPL (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 451) BUY BSE Derivatives 1,88,847.4 For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs439-435 NSE Equity 55,981.6 for the target of Rs459 with a strict stop loss of Rs424. NSE Derivatives 29,01,390.2 1 Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 11730 IN FOCUS October 29, 2020 Support 11633 Stock in Focus Aarti Industries MARKET LENS 11537 Intraday Pic MARICO Resistance 11878 Intraday Pick SIEMENS 12026 Intraday Pick UPL Technical Research MARKET SYNOPSIS f On Wednesday, NSE-NIFTY begun the session on a stable note and later resumed its southward journey. On the lower side, the index took support at 11,685 level and remained sideways. Finally, the index closed the day with the loss of 160 points at 11,730 mark. f NSE Cash segment reported turnover of Rs 55,982 crore as compared to Rs 59,789 crore reported earlier. f Overall market breadth turned from positive to negative, where 602 stocks advanced against 1251 declined stocks. f Negative trend was observed across sectoral indices during the day, where rate sensitive sectors emerged as top losers and they have reported loss between 2% and 2.3%. NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK f NSE-NIFTY resumed its southward journey post a rebound and closed below its short-term moving average 20-day EMA for the first time in this month. Weakness across the board dragged the index down. Even overall market breadth remained negative. As mentioned earlier, our near-term bearish stance will remain intact as its key technical indicators are negatively poised. A sustainable move below 11,661 mark will confirm short-term bearish reversal. That could drag the index towards 11,400 and 11,200 levels subsequently. On the higher side, its psychological hurdle point-12,000 level will cap the up-move. f As for the day, support is placed at around 11,633 and then at 11,537 levels, while resistance is observed at 11,878 and then at 12,026 levels. 2 ` Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 11730 IN FOCUS October 29, 2020 Support 11633 Stock in Focus Aarti Industries MARKET LENS 11537 Intraday Pic MARICO Resistance 11878 Intraday Pick SIEMENS 12026 Intraday Pick UPL Derivatives Snapshot f NIFTY50 reversed its previous day gains with sharp profit booking across sectors and stocks to close near the low point of the day. Nifty closed down by 160 points at 11,729 levels. Among the nifty stocks 9 advanced and 41 declined during the day. f Among sectors negative momentum was in Banks, Pharma and Realty sectors to decline by 2% average for the day while other sectors declined by 1% average for the day f Broader market indices remained negative with NIFTY 100,200 and 500 to close down by 1.2% average while midcap indices and small cap indices declined by 1% for the day. f Nifty Oct futures end with 8 points discount at 11,721 mark while on other hand, Bank Nifty Oct futures ended with the discount of 18 points at 24,214 mark. f Nifty has closed near the average and we believe there could be more weakness in high beta sectors and stocks. On the higher side 11,900 will act as strong resistance from current levels. Sectoral Activity: Amongst sectoral index, Banks and Realty remained in focus with negative momentum. Stock Activity: ICICI Bank and DLF have witnessed short build up in today’s trade. TOP 5 PRICE GAINERS Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED 451.85 4.27% 866.92% -2.49% 433 461 479 UPL LIMITED 450.75 2.78% 48.21% -5.67% 441 448 458 MARICO LIMITED 363.00 1.82% 157.92% -3.34% 354 359 369 ADANI ENTERPRISES LIMITED 318.85 1.53% -12.73% -4.33% 312 317 323 SIEMENS LTD 1285.85 1.52% 46.34% -6.23% 1259 1276 1304 TOP 5 PRICE LOSERS Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance VEDANTA LIMITED 95.40 -6.93% 50.17% 4.31% 93 96 98 DLF LIMITED 156.00 -5.51% 78.28% 2.19% 152 159 163 AMARA RAJA BATTERIES LTD. 745.80 -5.20% 56.84% -24.29% 727 759 777 APOLLO TYRES LTD 143.20 -4.28% -31.87% -7.97% 140 145 148 MUTHOOT FINANCE LIMITED 1200.80 -3.94% -43.13% -11.29% 1178 1216 1239 TOP 5 OI GAINERS Stock NameLTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance AXIS BANK LIMITED 504.70 -0.67% 25.18% 12.75% 493 505 517 VEDANTA LIMITED 95.40 -6.93% 50.17% 4.31% 93 96 98 TITAN COMPANY LIMITED 1217.00 -1.20% 170.49% 4.29% 1188 1214 1244 CUMMINS INDIA LTD 443.25 -3.14% 1.83% 3.53% 435 449 457 UNITED BREWERIES LTD 907.40 -1.25% -32.73% 2.73% 898 911 921 TOP 5 OI LOSERS Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance AMARA RAJA BATTERIES LTD. 745.80 -5.20% 56.84% -24.29% 727 759 777 COFORGE LIMITED 2242.30 0.61% -44.80% -18.89% 2215 2247 2275 KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD 1551.35 -2.29% -78.16% -16.30% 1537 1556 1571 VOLTAS LTD 703.00 0.21% 41.90% -16.01% 696 707 714 ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED 2159.55 -1.74% -36.23% -15.77% 2134 2176 2202 3 ` Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 11730 IN FOCUS October 29, 2020 Support 11633 Stock in Focus Aarti Industries MARKET LENS 11537 Intraday Pic MARICO Resistance 11878 Intraday Pick SIEMENS 12026 Intraday Pick UPL Derivatives Snapshot TOP 5 “RISE IN % DEL CHG” Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %Del Chg Support Pivot Resistance BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED 451.85 4.27% 866.92% 596.09% 433 461 479 BHARAT FORGE LTD 460.05 -1.81% 100.80% 315.53% 450 467 477 DLF LIMITED 156.00 -5.51% 78.28% 303.73% 152 159 163 UNITED SPIRITS LIMITED 512.45 -1.15% 69.89% 296.02% 508 515 520 TATA MOTORS LIMITED 134.80 -0.63% 167.95% 193.05% 131 137 141 TOP 5 “DECLINE IN % DEL CHG” Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %Del Chg Support Pivot Resistance ITC LTD 165.50 -1.02% -63.34% -81.98% 164 166 168 ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENT LTD 181.40 -3.33% -47.97% -80.10% 179 183 185 MRF LTD 66844.55 -1.99% -47.21% -79.31% 65402 66802 68245 SHREE CEMENT LIMITED 21361.20 -1.72% -66.29% -79.28% 21132 21460 21689 KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD 1551.35 -2.29% -78.16% -79.25% 1537 1556 1571 SECTORAL ACTIVITY Value Average of OI Average of Price Total Average of Total OI Change % Change % Volume Volume Change % AUTO 382998300 -7.64% -1.27% 257502065 31.63% BANKS 1171617575 -3.20% -1.90% 277738213 -10.09% CAPGOODS 189468903 -4.19% -1.39% 35183269 -6.39% CEMENT 50047550 -8.35% -1.50% 9165436 -41.32% FINANCE 355370948 -6.20% -1.85% 81828818 -12.57% FMCG 365086980 -4.95% -0.51% 47708661 -10.99% IT 89959875 -8.94% -1.43% 16621117 -20.99% METALS 485226100 -3.14% -1.11% 94290935 2.26% OIL-GAS