Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima & Methow River Basins Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic analyses Alec Maule – Project Manager Mark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical models Chris Lynch, (Reclamation) – River regulation model Jim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSS Matt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – Bioenergetics Pat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survival Jessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — Sociologist Lynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – Economist David Graves, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Yakima River 100 in / yr Eastern Washington State 6200 mi² 6 in / yr Climate Change in the Yakima Change Scenarios Base Early Mid 1981 - 2020- 2040 Mastin, 2008 2005 2030 2050 Watershed Model RiverWare Temperature Hydrodynamic Model Model GIS Bovee et al. 2008 Modeling Habitat maps Habitat Species- & life-stage-specific DSS Decision Support System Global Climate Change Decision Support System Change Scenarios Bioenergetics Model Base Early Mid 1988 - 2020- 2040 Growth, 2006 2030 2050 Development Migration, Reproduction Watershed Model Cohort Survival Model (Population) RiverWare Interactions (Community) Temperature Hydrodynamic Model Model GIS Social & Modeling Habitat maps Economic Habitat Analyses DSS Yakima Decision Analysis Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants Irrigation Districts Local elected officials Fed, State & Tribal F &W Fed & State Water Managers Yakima Decision Analysis Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants Results: • Shifted species of concern -- steelhead • Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river • Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission • Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin Changes in Habitat Area by Reach Sunnyside Diversion Dam Gap Wapato Three simulatedBaseline hydrographs and in the GapFuture and Wapato Hydrographs reaches. NA is the 8000 no action (baseline) hydrograph, P1 is the 1-degree temperature 7000 6000 increase, and P2 is the 2-degree temperature increase. 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Gap 0 ‐Jan 1 NA ‐Feb 1 P1 ‐Mar 1 P2 ‐Apr 1 8000 ‐May 1 7000 ‐Jun 1 ‐Jul 6000 1 5000 ‐Aug 1 4000 ‐Sep 1 ‐Oct 3000 1 2000 ‐Nov Wapato 1 ‐Dec 1000 1 0 Baseflow 1-Jan 1-Feb NA 1-Mar P1 1-Apr P2 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates Coho Fry Habitat (hectares) Gap Wapato Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008) Sensitivity Analysis Coho Fry Habitat (hectares) Gap Wapato Current “Flip-Flop” Current “Flip-Flop” Regulation Water Flows Regulation Water Flows Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin Impact of Fish Population on Tribe Sales price of Marketing fish Tribal profits from fish Fishing success Tribal commercial fishing Tribal share Tribal total of fish fishing Tribal Socio-econo subsistence mic benefits fishing of tribal culture Non-mkt value of subsistence fishing Ceremonial value Hypothetical data Ceremonial & Subsistence needs: 40,000 fish Excess = Commercial Social and Economic Components Jessica Montag & Lynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) Salmon - critical to Tribal cultural, spiritual and economical livelihoods. Management decisions often neglect important cultural aspects Goal: Provide understanding of Tribal cultural component of salmon fisheries. Yakima Project Completion Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses Chapters (in preparation) 1. Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model 2. Mainstem temperature modeling 3. Tributary temperatiure modeling 4. Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon 5. Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific habitat 6. Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of the Yakama Tribe Columbia Basin CC Trans-boundary Workgroup [Research-to-Operations (R20); 20+ Fed (US & Canada), State, Tribal & NGOs] Steve Waste, R2O Leader Pilot project: Methow River Basin • Oct. 2009 First R2O meeting • Jan. 2010 Methow CC Team ~20 researchers/managers • March 2010 - DA Stakeholders Workshop • Feb. 9 – 10, 2011 – check in with R2O • March 1, 2011- check in w/ Methow Community • FY2011 and beyond? Preliminary conceptual model: Connecting decisions to outcomes Rectangles = decisions Hexagons = objectives or value measures Bold rounded rectangles = submodels GNLCC Habitat Connectivity Project Rectangles = decisions Hexagons = objectives or value measures Bold rounded rectangles = submodels Collaborators in Methow River Basin (~$2.2 million) USGS – GC Sci. Apps., NW Area Office & 4 Science Centers Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Bureau of Reclamation (local & national research team) Colden Baxter, Idaho State University USGS-USFS Collaboration Consultants (R2O): Karen Jenni, Insight Decisions Timothy Neiman, Decision Applications Climate Change Threats to Fish Habitat Connectivity: Growth & Predation (GNLCC-funded, FY10-FY12) Pat Connolly, Jim Hatten Matt Mesa & Alec Maule Objective: Develop spatially-explicit bioenergetics models to predict CC effects Large-bodied bull trout, westslope cutthroat trout & mountain whitefish move between Methow & Columbia (extant PIT-tag & radio-tag data). 1. Task: Determine if increased feeding opportunities = increased growth. Issue: Increased predation on smaller juvenile salmonids (especially ESA- listed summer steelhead and spring Chinook) Method: (1) Determine growth attributable to Methow vs Columbia—examine otoliths for chemical constituents (e.g., Sr/Ca ratios). (2) Read growth rings on otoliths & (3) Determine diets. Status: Otoliths collected, assayed Summer 2011. Some diet data from other studies (Idaho State University). Data collection complete - Fall 2011 Climate Change Threats to Fish Habitat Connectivity: Growth & Predation 2. Task: Develop parameters for bioenergetics (BioE) models (bull trout & Mt whitefish) & predict Growth Issue: Growth depends on diet, temperature & activity, all will be altered under CC. Methods: Determine foodwebs & diets (Idaho State University) & predict changes in food availability. Controlled BioE experiments. Status: Bull trout BioE model parameters (USFWS) validated. Mt. Wtfish FY11-12. Bioenergetics models Balanced equation: • Growth = Consumption – Respiration – Egestion – Excretion • G = C –R –Eg –Ex • Temp, activity, diet & fish size (life stage) dependent • Model parameters developed for 40+ species Oxygen consumption w/ swim speed & temp G = C – R – Ex – Eg 20-29 cm 0.012 18° C 0.010 0.008 13° C 0.006 0.004 8° C Average MO2 (gO2g^-1d^-1) MO2 Average Oxygen consumption 0.002 0.000 1/4 Ucrit 1/2 Ucrit 3/4 Ucrit Ucrit = Critical swim speedSpeed = max sustainable Less energy available for Growth Fish Growth—a Measure of Fish Health 12 Yakima River Age-0 Fall Chinook salmon 10 8 6 Base Weight (g) Weight Constant diet T+1 4 & T+2 Constant activity 2 0 15-Apr 30-Apr 15-May 30-May 14-Jun 29-Jun 14-Jul Date Bioenergetics Modeling Climate Change Threats to Fish Habitat Connectivity: Growth & Predation 3. Task: Determine mainstem Methow side-channel connectivity. Issue: Refugia for Juv salmon growth & predator avoidance Methods: BOR - 2-D hydro model. Winthrop to Twisp, 1 - 10-m resolution. Flood plain bathymetry & fine-scale (1-3 m) 2-D hydrodynamic models. Status: Bathymetry data collection started; complete this summer/fall. Model – early to mid FY12 Climate Change Threats to Fish Habitat Connectivity: Growth & Predation Task 4 (Goal): Predict effects of CC on fish population viability Issue: CC will alter habitat connectivity and reduce population viability via increase predation and decreased scope for growth of juveniles Methods: Create linkages between models (Tasks 1 – 3) & CC scenarios Status: CC scenarios (Mark Mastin, Wa WSC). Population viability models in progress (CRRL Modeling Group) Okanagon River Methow River R2O Goal Wenatchee River Yakima River Umatilla River Questions?.