Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model September 05, 2018 Marco Bell, Merced Irrigation District Bibek Joshi, Dewberry Objective • Introduce HEC-RTS • Benefits of MIDH2O 2 | | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 MIDH2O Origins • 2015 USBR WaterSMART – Drought Resiliency Project Grant • MIDH2O is the Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations Model • MIDH2O is a tool to assist MID in the management of the Merced River flows, operation of New Exchequer Dam and regulate MID irrigation diversions. • MIDH2O can serve as a decision support tool for power generation and help link water and power operations to the hydro power market. • Based on HEC-RTS 3 | | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Merced Irrigation District • Established in 1919 * • Store and distribute water for irrigation • Total irrigable lands in MID: 138,000 acres • 825 miles of water distribution facilities (earth lined, concrete lined channels and pipes) • Also provides water for domestic uses, provide flood control, hydroelectric power generation, and recreation • Provides water to approximately 2,200 farmers in Merced County and affordable electricity to 7,500 residences and business • Owns and operates New Exchequer and McSwain Dams, reservoirs and hydroelectric facilities * http://www.mercedid.com/index.cfm/about/history‐of‐the‐district/ 4 | | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Merced Irrigation District 5 | | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Merced River Watershed • Tributary of San Joaquin River • Drainage Area: 1,267 square miles (1,037 square miles at New Exchequer Dam) • Elevation Range: 52 – 13,090 ft (535 square miles above 5,000 feet) • Upper watershed in Yosemite National Park 6 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-RTS • Publicly available software from HEC • Software system supporting data acquisition, visualization, and short- term forecast modeling • Interface to receive and process real- time and forecast meteorological data • Link multiple models in a sequence for real-time simulation of hydrology, reservoir operation, river hydraulics, and flood impact analysis 7 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-RTS Meteorological Data • Supports standard HEC models and can be extended to support other models and data processing tasks MFP Supplemental Program • Provides access to native model interfaces for data editing and display HMS • Deployed to over 35 USACE district and division offices * Flow • UASCE version: Corps Water Management ResSim System (CWMS) Flow • CWMS is server based and uses Oracle Database. HEC-RTS is PC based and uses RAS HEC-DSS. Custom Report Generator * http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/cwms/cwms.aspx 8 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Why HEC-RTS? • Familiarity with HEC models • Has an interface to receive and process real-time and forecast meteorological data • Discrete models developed outside and then linked together in RTS • Provides a platform to integrate different models • Rainfall-runoff model to predict peak discharge (HEC- HMS) • Reservoir operation model to evaluate reservoir releases (HEC-ResSim) • Riverine hydraulics model to predict river stages (HEC- RAS) 9 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-RTS GUI 10 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Data Acquisition and Data Visualization Modules Source: Chan Modini, USACE‐HEC, Real‐Time Flow/Stage Forecasting, Inundation Mapping and Decision Support For the Russian River Basin with CWMS 3.0 / HEC‐RTS 3.0, MIDH2O Symposium, September 2017 11 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Data Acquisition and Data Visualization Modules Source: Chan Modini, USACE‐HEC, Real‐Time Flow/Stage Forecasting, Inundation Mapping and Decision Support For the Russian River Basin with CWMS 3.0 / HEC‐RTS 3.0, MIDH2O Symposium, September 2017 12 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-RTS GUI 13 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 14 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Project Overview • To provide a Real Time Decision Support System for the Merced Irrigation District • Water budget – Snow Accumulation, Snow Melt, Rainfall Runoff into Lake McClure • Irrigation Deliveries to the Turnouts • Flood Forecasting for the Merced Streams Group • Power Generation Scheduling 15 | | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 MIDH2O Features • Fully automated MIDH2O system • Data retrieval and QAQC • Generate Forecast • Post Results • Generate custom report • Each forecast run has a three week simulation period – two weeks of lookback and 1 week of forecast • Forecast simulation run at 6 o’clock and 12 o’clock PST • HEC-HMS includes snowmelt modeling • Integrated with MID’s WISKI database • Scripts written to update initial soil moisture deficit values and transfer initial snowmelt grids 16 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Meteorological Model Uncoupled Surface Layer (USL) model runs a NWP model that GFS Downscaling & NAM focuses entirely on near surface Bias Correction Hi-res HRRR Terrain data conditions NDFD Pre-processor SREF Terrain elevation ranges from 52 Gridded to 13,090 ft MOS GDPS Clouds Weighted HIRESW Precipitation Orographic effect, mountain Ensemble etc. shadow, temperature in north vs (WRF) south facing slopes Observations Temperature High resolution (500 meter) USL Land surface Humidity hourly gridded precipitation and data Wind temperature grids “Tuning” (0-100m AGL) params Accurate land surface properties and realistic near‐surface physics Source: CustomWeather Forecasting Merced Irrigation District: The High Resolution Uncoupled Surface Layer (USL) Model, MIDH2O Symposium, September 2017 17 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Precipitation Runoff Model • Computes streamflow throughout the Merced River watershed based on observed and forecast precipitation and temperature and watershed runoff characteristics • Includes snowmelt computations • Event-oriented model run continuously 18 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-HMS Components • Loss -> Deficit and Constant • Canopy -> Simple Canopy • Evapotranspiration -> Monthly Average • Moisture deficit can recover • Transform -> ModClark • Routing -> Modified Puls and Muskingum-Cunge • Baseflow -> Recession 19 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Uncertainty in Real-Time Forecasting • Inaccuracy in forecast precipitation and temperature • Is precipitation falling as rain or snow? • HEC-HMS uses one PX Temperature • Initial conditions • Soil moisture •SWE • Need professional judgment 20 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 MIDH2O January 9, 2017 Event Forecast MIDH2O Forecast: Merced River at Pohono Bridge January 9, 2017 Storm 2017.01.04‐0400 2017.01.04‐1000 2017.01.05‐0400 2017.01.05‐1000 2017.01.06‐1000 2017.01.07‐1000 2017.01.08‐1000 2017.01.09‐1000 OBSERVED 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Flow (cfs) 10,000 5,000 0 03 Jan 17, 10:00 04 Jan 17, 10:00 05 Jan 17, 10:00 06 Jan 17, 10:00 07 Jan 17, 10:00 08 Jan 17, 10:00 09 Jan 17, 10:00 10 Jan 17, 10:00 21 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 22 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-ResSim Overview To model operations at reservoirs using different set of operational rules and constraints Uses reservoir inflow and downstream local flows computed by HEC-HMS Reservoir operation for Lake McClure, Lake McSwain, and Merced Falls Forebay to water delivery and power generation Determine releases using operation sets and prescribed release schedules Use mass-balance to determine pool elevation and storage for reservoirs 23 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 HEC-RAS for MID Unsteady-state hydraulic model of Merced River from the Exchequer Dam to San Joaquin River New model development between Exchequer Dam and Cressey Existing DWR’s model of Merced River between Cressey and San Joaquin River Uses reservoir releases from HEC-ResSim and local inflows from HEC-HMS Calibrate to available high water marks and gage record Water quality modeling Sediment transport modeling 24 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Custom Report • 29 page report • Past, current, and estimated future conditions • Precipitation and snowpack • Reservoir status • Diversion demand • Forecasted flow at key downstream locations • Appendix includes: • Current NWS San Joaquin Valley Report • 5-station precipitation index, California snow water content (from CA DWR) • Merced Watershed Report • Historical SWE time series for Ostrander and Tenaya Lakes • Lake McClure current conditions and precipitation 25 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 26 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Real-time and Planning Models • Real-time • Flood and Conditional Space Operations • Downstream Flow Requirements • Demand and Power Management • Hourly Time Forecast for One Week • Planning • Snow Water Equivalent Analyses • April to July Snowmelt Flow Volume Forecast • Habitat Restoration • Fish Pulse Flows 27 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 28 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Additional MIDH2O Benefits • Climate Change Impact HEC‐HMS Analysis • Surface water – Ground water coupled model • Power Generation and HEC‐ResSim Scheduling • October Pulse Flows HEC‐RAS • Update gage rating table • Merced River Water quality and temperature modeling 29 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Conclusion • Phase 1 went live on October 2016 • From day 1, significant benefits realized over legacy forecast methods • Improved lead time and flexibility in forecasts and operational alternatives • Residual benefits to other district operations through optimization, increased efficiency and increased collaboration 30 | MIDH2O September 05, 2018 Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model Marco Bell Ted Cassidy Bibek Joshi Merced Irrigation District Dewberry Dewberry [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 209‐354‐2857 916‐380‐3774 916‐380‐3772.