athways to Reengagement: Bringing At-Risk, Out-of-School Youth Back Pinto Education focuses on a social and global problem – 200 million adolescents and youth are out of school, live in adverse life circumstances, and face multiple disadvantages. It analyzes the available evidence for what works, how, and why for reengaging and retaining these young people in education. The study further explores for whom and in what contexts the identified interventions can be effective, considering variations in both individual and contextual characteristics of the targeted youth. This literature review and synthesized findings can be useful to build a broad theory of change with the aim of guiding local policy and programming for designing contextualized interventions for education reengagement. Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa Prospects and Challenges Martin Humphreys, Aiga Stokenberga, Matias Herrera Dappe, Atsushi Iimi, and Olivier Hartmann INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa Prospects and Challenges Martin Humphreys, Aiga Stokenberga, Matias Herrera Dappe, Atsushi Iimi, and Olivier Hartmann © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 Books in this series are published to communicate the results of Bank research, analysis, and operational experience with the least possible delay. The extent of language editing varies from book to book. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-1-4648-1410-5 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1410-5 Cover photo: © mtcurado/istockphoto.com. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Debra Naylor/Naylor Design Inc. Contents Foreword by Guangzhe Chen vii Foreword by Deborah L. Wetzel ix Acknowledgments xi About the Authors xiii Abbreviations xv Overview 1 The main findings 2 Notes 5 References 6 CHAPTER 1: Introduction 7 Why was this study undertaken? 7 An outline of the report 8 Note 10 Reference 10 CHAPTER 2: The Role of the Port in International Trade 11 African economic growth 11 The growth and geography of African trade 12 The cost of trade 13 The role of the maritime port 14 Note 15 References 15 CHAPTER 3: The Port Sector in East and Southern Africa 17 A regional perspective 17 Overview of the main ports 18 Regional trends in traffic 39 Ongoing and planned development 41 Conclusions 48 Notes 48 References 49 CHAPTER 4: The Performance of the Individual Ports 51 Spatial and operational efficiency 51 Maritime access and connectivity 54 Technical efficiency 62 Notes 65 References 65 iii iv | Port DEVELOPMENT AND COMPETITION IN EAST AND SOUTHERN AFRICA CHAPTER 5: The Challenges Facing the Ports in ESA 67 Trends in the shipping industry 67 Limited vertical or horizontal integration 80 The problem of landside access 82 Weaknesses in the institutional framework 91 Insufficient use of modern IT systems 103 Inadequate stakeholder engagement 106 Conclusions 107 Notes 107 References 108 CHAPTER 6: The Prospects for the ESA Ports 111 Introduction 111 Predicted demand growth 111 Competitive position of the ports 113 Determinants of port choice 117 Forecast demand for the individual ports 121 Implications for the individual ports 129 Conclusions 130 Note 130 References 131 CHAPTER 7: Conclusions and Recommendations 133 The main findings 133 The specific recommendations for each port 139 References 153 APPENDIX A: The Review of the Institutional Framework 155 Boxes 5.1 Facilitating modal switching in the port of Rotterdam 83 5.2 Port–city interface: Road congestion reduction policies 90 5.3 Addressing the port–city interface: The case of Durban and East London 91 5.4 National policy statement for ports (United Kingdom) 93 5.5 The port community system (PCS) in the Netherlands—Portbase 105 Figures 4.1 Average vessel turnaround time in days, 2016 52 4.2 Average quay productivity, 2016 53 4.3 Average quay productivity, 2016 53 4.4 Dwell time and truck turnaround time for containers, 2016 54 4.5 LSBCI by country (exports and imports, weighted by value) 57 4.6 Average LSBCI by port ordered by incoming routes for direct routes, 2015 58 4.7 Average LSBCI by port ordered by incoming services for indirect routes, 2015 59 4.8 Average waiting time, 2015 60 4.9 Effective average waiting time, 2015 60 4.10 Ratio of container berth capacity usage, 2014 62 4.11 Ratio of depth capacity usage, 2014 62 4.12 Average technical efficiency, by port, among ESA ports, 2008–17 65 5.1 Far East–Europe capacity share by alliance 69 5.2 Shipping call pattern (containers), 2013–16, group 1 72 5.3 Shipping call pattern (containers), 2013–16, group 2 73 5.4 Shipping call pattern (general cargo) 74 5.5 Shipping call pattern (liquid bulk), group 2 75 5.6 Shipping call pattern (liquid bulk), group 3 76 Contents | v 5.7 Shipping call pattern (Ro-Ro), group 1 77 5.8 Shipping call pattern (Ro-Ro), group 2 77 5.9 Relationship between port charges and locations where they are incurred 100 6.1 East and Southern African ports demand forecast up to 2050 112 6.2 Expected regional growth in general cargo, liquid bulk, dry bulk, and vehicle demand, compared to total regional capacity 113 6.3 East and Southern African ports market share, 2050 128 Maps 1.1 Ports included in the study 9 3.1 Location of Djibouti port 18 3.2 Location of Berbera port 20 3.3 Location of Mombasa port 21 3.4 Location of Lamu port 23 3.5 Location of Dar es Salaam port 24 3.6 Location of Zanzibar port 25 3.7 Location of Moroni port 27 3.8 Location of Toamasina port 28 3.9 Location of Mahajanga port 29 3.10 Location of Port Louis port 31 3.11 Location of Nacala port 33 3.12 Location of Beira port 34 3.13 Location of Maputo port 36 3.14 Location of Durban port 37 3.15 Location of East London port 38 4.1 The LSBCI for the ESA countries, 2016 56 5.1 Median border wait times in early 2018 88 5.2 Drive time isochrones to African ports 89 6.1 Gateway ports in the southern cone 119 6.2 Geographic distribution of shipment origins according to shipment weight 120 Photo 3.1 Port of East London car terminal 47 Tables 3.1 Traffic composition and volume, Djibouti, 2012–16 19 3.2 Traffic composition and olume,v Berbera, 2012–16 20 3.3 Traffic composition and olume,v Mombasa, 2012–16 22 3.4 Traffic composition and olume,v Dar es Salaam, 2012–16 24 3.5 Traffic composition and olume,v Zanzibar, 2012–16 26 3.6 Traffic composition and olume,v Moroni, 2012–16 27 3.7 Traffic