2018 Mid-Year | Retail Research & Forecast Report EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY DELAWARE MARKET INDICATORS PA/NJ/DE PA/NJ/DE Relative to prior period Q4 2017 Q4 2018* Regional Retail Market VACANCY Key Trends CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATES > The regional vacancy rate increased during the first two quarters of 2018 from 7.6 to 8.4%. *Projected Arrows compare current period to the previous period and forecast the next period. > Developers continue to renovate existing centers to improve access, increase the number of restaurant and entertainment options, and to add a residential component. ASKING RENTAL RATES BY CENTER TYPE > Asking rents and concessions have remained static. AVERAGE ASKING RENTS Asking rents for > Investment sales volume continued on a two-year decline. Community, Neighborhood Multiple store closings by Sears, Kmart, Bon-Ton and Toys ‘r Us, added COMMUNITY $14.00-$35.00 and Lifestyle Centers are 2.6 million square feet to the regional shopping center vacancy to for the typical quoted rent NEIGHBORHOOD $12.00-$35.00 per-square-foot, triple net; date in 2018. Bon-Ton’s demise, combined with the anchor vacancies and for in-line spaces. For left by previous rounds of Macy’s, Sears and JCPenney “right-sizing” Power Centers, asking POWER $13.00-$22.00 have had the greatest impact on regional malls. Mall vacancy jumped rents are for anchor or junior anchor positions, from 6.8 to 10.1%. $28.00-$60.00 LIFESTYLE 10,000 SF to 40,000 SF. The disposition of the corporate-owned locations and store leases will provide opportunities for other retailers to acquire these locations, and for landlords and developers to gain control of stores. Steady RETAIL VACANCY BY CENTER TYPE back-filling of existing anchor vacancies helped to offset some of the additional space put back on the market by the shrinking retailers. 15%15% 2Q 17 Most landlords have accepted the necessity of changing the tenant 4Q 17 mix in centers to include more “experiential” entertainment and 2Q 18 dining options. 10%10% Vacancy is anticipated to continue to rise as the evolving retail environment impacts stores in all size ranges. Additional department stores are destined for the chopping block over the next year as Macy’s, 5%5% Sears-Kmart and Lord & Taylor continue to close under-performing locations. New large-format and smaller boutique fitness concepts will push out older operators. Coworking studios for hairdressers 0% and other personal services may begin to pull professionals and 0% their customers from existing salons. The proliferation of off-price Power Malls retailers will potentially result in increased competition for the same Lifestyle popular brands that drive sales. Community Neighborhood Regional Overview (continued) Despite a changing landscape with more online grocery delivery Regionally, both the number of sale transactions and the average price and “click and collect” options, supermarket chains opened in per square foot have decreased as quality assets are not being exposed new construction or moved to existing stores in more desirable to the market. Owners are preferring to refinance rather than sell quality trade areas. Discount retailers, fitness operators, health systems, centers. This market trait has created the appearance of rising Cap entertainment companies and even office users continued to lease Rates, but really reflects the lack of high-quality property sales. larger vacancies. Recent Transactions in Q1 and Q2 2018 LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION TENANT SIZE SF Willow Grove Park Mall Montgomery County Studio Movie Grill 115,000 Lehigh Shopping Center Lehigh County Aetna Call Center 84,607 Brookwood Shopping Center Bucks County ShopRite 75,000 Feasterville Square Bucks County Giant 65,000 Devon Square Chester County Target 57,640 Walnutport Shopping Center Northampton County Giant 55,557 West Manchester Town Center York County Hobby Lobby 52,533 Doylestown Pointe Plaza Bucks County Giant 50,000 Limerick Square Montgomery County Urban Air Indoor Trampoline Park 39,746 Rockland Plaza Berks County Berks Community Health Center 37,500 Hamden Commons Cumberland County Ollie's Bargain Outlet 39,089 York Galleria York County Gold's Gym 30,664 Ralph's Corner Montgomery County Aldi 29,427 Montgomery Square Montgomery County Gabe's 28,892 Warrington Crossing Warrington Aldi 26,350 Lansdale Pavilion Montgomery County Crux Fitness 25,000 Moorestown Mall Burlington County HomeSense 25,000 GIANT Feasterville Square Bucks County Michael's 24,571 Pottstown Center Montgomery County Aldi 22,703 25th Street Shopping Center Northampton County Grocery Outlet 21,146 York Galleria York County Marshalls 21,026 Moorestown Mall Burlington County Sierra Trading Post 18,000 Parktown West Philadelphia County ChenMed 15,080 Westmont Plaza Camden County A.C. Moore 14,800 Hope Plaza Philadelphia County ChenMed 13,035 Silver Spring Square Cumberland County Old Navy 12,295 Plymouth Meeting Mall Montgomery County Forever 21 11,000 CooperTowne Center Camden County Dollar Tree 10,532 SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION BUYER SIZE SF PRICE / SF TYPE Macarthur Shopping Center Lehigh County Abrams Realty & Development, LLC 371,993 $148.66 Community Center Silver Spring Square (portion) Cumberland County The Wilder Companies 349,350 $231.32 Community Center One and Two Greenville Crossing New Castle County Greenville Crossing Partners 161,389 $408.95 Community Center Lansdale Pavilion Montgomery County Triple Crown Corporation 139,263 $73.17 Community Center Martin's Plaza Glouceser County BKK Real Estate Holding Llc 74,000 $78.38 Neighborhood Center Colonial Square York County York College 26,977 $191.83 Strip Center 2 Research & Forecast Report | 2018 Mid-Year | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International Market Comparison Update RETAIL MARKET SUBMARKET INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT SUBLET VACANT TOTAL VACANT VACANCY RATE Philadelphia County 17,245,992 1,453,222 0 1,453,222 8.4% Suburban PA Counties 75,113,017 5,402,610 39,383 5,441,993 7.2% Southern New Jersey 32,576,306 3,604,672 32,449 3,637,121 11.2% Lehigh Valley, PA 15,590,684 1,430,242 5,960 1,436,202 9.2% New Castle County, DE 17,831,211 1,109,713 1,480 1,111,193 6.2% Central Pennsylvania 46,407,269 4,003,768 28,004 4,031,772 8.7% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 204,764,479 17,004,227 107,276 17,111,503 8.4% Toys 'r Us Impact on Vacancy: 2.63 MSF 2018 Store Closings Vacancy Sears/Kmart Bon-Ton METHODOLOGY: The Colliers International PA, Southern NJ, and DE survey includes strip retail, neighborhood, community, power, lifestyle and malls over 25,000 square feet. The overall vacancy rates include strip retail centers and malls, but these are not broken out in the center vacancy comparisons. Research & Forecast Report | 2018 Mid-Year | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International 3 Submarket Reviews Colliers Global Stats Philadelphia County New Castle County, DE Philadelphia County’s shopping center vacancy jumped The vacancy rate in New Castle County by more than a percentage point to 8.4% mainly due to ticked up from 6.0 at the end of 2017 to Revenue: $2.7 billion US* the closure of a Kmart store on Aramingo Avenue and 6.2% due to the Sears store closing at Countries: 69 the Sears at Great Northeast Plaza. Prices Corner Shopping Center. Professionals: 15,400 ChenMed, an operator of health centers for seniors, is Mixed-use developments are gaining Square feet managed: 2 billion opening four locations in Philadelphia shopping centers, momentum. The Concord Plaza and Lease and sale transactions: 68,000 totaling 46,441 square feet. Linden Hill Station developments will have Total transaction value: >$116 billion* The two-story retail portion of the Lincoln Square a retail component. Other redevelopments development is underway and substantially pre-leased. of existing shopping centers like College *All statistics are for 2017, are in U.S. dollars and include affiliates. As the sale of the parking lot 8th and Market Street Square in Newark have proposed appears to be moving forward, this site may finally be apartments. developed. Lehigh Valley, PA Suburban Pennsylvania The Lehigh Valley had a sharp vacancy The overall vacancy rate in the four suburban counties increase from 7.0 to 9.2%, mainly due to the increased from 6.9 to 7.2% during the first two quarters. closing of Bon-Ton stores in Allentown, FOUNDING GLOBAL PARTNER Only Delaware County had a decrease in vacancy. Whole Bethlehem, Easton and Trexlertown. Foods opened multiple new stores, and Aldi has been actively backfilling locations left by other retailers. Outparcel development at existing centers has Multiple shopping centers are adopting the town center increased, as well as pad site development at WORLD GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL concept. Residential units are planned for Main Street at infill locations along the busier commercial Exton, Exton Square Mall and Drexeline Shopping Center. corridors. However, community groups are raising objections to the size of the proposed mixed-use Town Center at Marple Central Pennsylvania UNITED STATES: The Central Pennsylvania counties also had a Preserve in Delaware County. Colliers International | Philadelphia significant impact from Sears-Kmart and Southern New Jersey Bon-Ton shutdowns. Cumberland and York Philadelphia, PA (headquarters) Southern New Jersey was the only market area that had counties were hit particularly hard. TEL +1 215 925 4600 a vacancy decrease in 2018, but the vacancy rate for the The overall vacancy rate increased from 7.0 to Allentown, PA three counties remained above the regional average at 8.7% during the first and second quarters despite TEL +1 610 770 3600 11.2%. While towns like Cherry Hill are thriving and the delivery of substantially preleased new adding new retail development, other towns have centers Conshohocken, PA construction.