Kilmore supermarket development Economic Impact Assessment August 2018 Tony Dimasi [email protected] Prepared for Lascorp Development Group (Aust) Pty Ltd Table of contents Executive summary 1 Introduction 4 Section 1: Site context and planning framework 5 1.1 Regional context and site location 5 1.2 Planning framework 8 1.3 Peri-urban towns of Melbourne 12 1.4 Proposed development 13 Section 2: Trade area analysis 15 2.1 Trade area definition 15 2.2 Trade area population 18 2.3 Socio-demographic profile 21 2.4 Trade area retail spending 23 Section 3: Competition 27 3.1 Competitive context 27 3.2 Other vacant sites within the Kilmore Town Centre 29 3.3 Supermarket floorspace provision 31 Section 4: Centre retail sales potential 33 Section 5: Economic impact findings 38 5.1 Economic and social benefits 38 5.2 Employment stimulus 40 5.3 Consideration of trading impacts 41 5.4 Summary and net community benefit 44 Executive summary • Kilmore is situated some 75 km north of Melbourne on the Northern Highway, the main north-south carriageway through this region of Victoria. The subject site, which is proposed to accommodate a supermarket-based development, is located on the north-western corner of Sydney Street (Northern Highway) and Clarke Street. • The Kilmore Structure Plan 2016 was adopted by Council on 15 August 2016 and was placed on formal public exhibition as part of Planning Scheme Amendment C123 in October/November 2017. Amendment C123 and the Kilmore Structure Plan were subsequently considered by a Planning Panel in May 2018 and the Panel report was issued in June 2018. Among the Panel findings and recommendations is the designation of the subject site as sitting within the Sydney Street Town Centre boundary and being a “potential supermarket and associated specialty retail site”. • The extent of the trade area expected to be served by the proposed supermarket development reflects the strategic location of the site on the Northern Highway; the surrounding competitive context; and the proposed composition of the project within the context of the broader Kilmore Town Centre, of which it will form part. The trade area for the proposed development is defined to include a primary and three secondary sectors. The main trade area population is estimated at almost 25,000 at 2018, including 15,600 residents within the primary sector. Over the forecast period, the main trade area population is projected to increase by around 440 residents per year, and is estimated to reach 28,346 at mid-2026. • The closest supermarkets and foodstores within the trade area include Coles and Aldi supermarkets as well as a small Friendly Grocer foodstore in the Kilmore Town Centre. IGA supermarkets are located in the surrounding towns of Broadford, Heathcote, Wandong and Lancefield. Beyond the trade area, the most relevant retail facilities are located at Wallan, to the south, and Seymour, to the north. • The proposed supermarket at the subject site would locate almost adjacent to the existing Coles store, forming a natural extension of the town centre. The Sydney Street strip is well established and there are no available sites, other than the subject site, which would be suitable to accommodate the development of a full range supermarket together with supporting specialty stores, as proposed on the subject Kilmore supermarket development 1 Economic Impact Assessment Executive summary site. The desirable site attributes for such development include adequate size for the store and associated carparking; easy accessibility; and strong connections with the existing retail offer. • The total retail sales potential of the proposed development is estimated at $37.4 million at 2020/21, expressed in constant 2016/17 dollars. This estimate of sales potential reflects the location of the site on a major traffic route, the available population within the defined main trade area, and the limited provision of major supermarkets in the surrounding area. • The proposed supermarket development is likely to result in a range of economic impacts, with the key positive benefits including: - addressing an existing shortfall of supermarket floorspace within the trade area; - catering for the projected increase in population within the trade area; - improving shopping choice, convenience and amenity for local residents; - increasing competition; - strengthening the role of Kilmore as a retail centre; - attracting people to live in Kilmore; and - creating additional employment opportunities. • Furthermore, the proposed development would meet a number of the key objectives outlined in the Kilmore Structure Plan, in particular: - providing an additional supermarket within the Kilmore Town Centre; - supporting the establishment of township gateways which mark the arrival into the Kilmore Town Centre; - promoting high quality built form outcomes along the Northern Highway interface having regard to its role at the northern gateway: - discouraging car parking along the Northern Highway frontage and encouraging access from Clarke Street; and - promoting finer grain built form outcomes fronting the Northern Highway. Kilmore supermarket development 2 Economic Impact Assessment Executive summary • Against these benefits, some impacts are projected on existing retail facilities in the surrounding area, though focussed primarily on the various chain supermarkets. The potential trading impacts arising from the proposed new supermarket would be dispersed across a range of retail centres, and those impacts would not threaten the ongoing viability of any existing retail centre or retail shop. Therefore, it can be concluded that a net community benefit will result from the proposed development, particularly as the development will provide increased shopping choice and convenience for residents while also creating job opportunities for the local community. Kilmore supermarket development 3 Economic Impact Assessment Introduction This report presents an independent assessment of the need and demand for a supermarket-based development proposed by Lascorp Development Group at Kilmore, as well as examining the economic impacts arising from the proposed development. The report is structured as follows: • Section 1 provides an overview of the regional and local context of the site, reviews the proposed development, discusses the relevant planning framework and also Kilmore’s peri-urban status. • Section 2 examines the trade area available to the proposed development, including estimates and projections of population and retail expenditure levels in the trade area, as well as detailing the socio-demographic profile of the trade area population. • Section 3 reviews the competitive environment of the surrounding area, as well as exploring the existing vacant sites within the Kilmore Town Centre. • Section 4 assesses the likely sales potential and market shares of retail expenditure for the proposed supermarket development. • Section 5 outlines the anticipated economic benefits, likely/possible impacts and net community benefit that can be anticipated following the project’s development. Kilmore supermarket development 4 Economic Impact Assessment Section 1: Site context and planning framework 1.1 Regional context and site location Kilmore is a peri-urban town located approximately 75 km north of Melbourne on the Northern Highway, and is situated within Mitchell Shire (refer Map 1.1). Being located within one hour of Melbourne, and offering excellent lifestyle opportunity, amenity and affordability, Kilmore is poised to grow very substantially in the foreseeable future. The subject site is located at the northern edge of the Kilmore Town Centre, at the intersection of Clarke Street and Sydney Street (Northern Highway), the main arterial road in Kilmore (refer Map 1.2). The site enjoys high visibility and easy accessibility. Immediately south of the site is a supermarket based development which contains both Coles and Aldi supermarkets. The Kilmore Town Centre has a linear layout which extends approximately 1 km along Sydney Street from Bourke Street in the south to Clarke Street in the north. Retail stores are dispersed along the strip centre and include a range of food and non-food specialty stores, as well as other commercial facilities. A number of vacancies are also evident throughout the strip. The other main towns within Mitchell Shire are Wallan, Seymour and Broadford, and the Shire will experience very substantial growth in population, with its 2018 population of 44,882 projected to more than double, to 91,830, by 2036. Kilmore supermarket development 5 Economic Impact Assessment Map 1.1: Kilmore Regional context Map 1.2: Kilmore supermarket development Site location Section 1: Site context and planning framework 1.2 Planning framework Plan Melbourne Plan Melbourne 2017, replacing the previous Plan Melbourne 2014 and Plan Melbourne Refresh (2015), presents the overarching strategic planning vision for Melbourne. Victoria’s population is projected to grow by some 3 million over the period to 2041, and Plan Melbourne 2017 emphasises the requirement for growth to be accommodated in regional locations and Melbourne’s peri-urban areas. Peri-urban areas are defined as the land immediately bordering an urban area, or in the case of Melbourne, the hinterland beyond the Melbourne metropolitan boundary. These areas will form an important part of Melbourne’s development into the future. With a stated intent to enforce the Urban Growth Boundary, the State Government intends to accommodate a