NOT FAA POLICY OR GUIDANCE LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT 24 SEPTEMBER 2013 DOT/FAA/AR-xx/xx Obsolescence and Life Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center Cycle Management Aviation Research Division Atlantic City International Airport New Jersey 08405 for Avionics DISCLAIMER This draft document is being made available as a “Limited Release” document by the FAA Software and Digital Systems (SDS) Program and does not constitute FAA policy or guidance. This document is being distributed by permission by the Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR). The research information in this document represents only the viewpoint of its subject matter expert authors. The FAA is concerned that its research is not released to the public before full editorial review is completed. However, a Limited Release distribution does allow exchange of research knowledge in a way that will benefit the parties receiving the documentation and, at the same time, not damage perceptions about the quality of FAA research. NOT FAA POLICY OR GUIDANCE LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT 24 SEPTEMBER 2013 NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturer's names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the objective of this report. This document does not constitute FAA certification policy. Consult your local FAA aircraft certification office as to its use. Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. DOT/FAA/AR-xx/xx 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Obsolescence and Life Cycle Management for Avionics September 2013 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Chris Wilkinson 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Honeywell Aerospace 7000 Columbia Gateway Drive Columbia, MD 21046 11. Contract or Grant No. DTFACT-11-C-00006 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Federal Aviation Authority Final FAA William J Hughes Technical Center August 2011 to November 2013 Atlantic City International Airport, NJ 08405 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes The Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center Aviation Research Division COR was Charles Kilgore. 16. Abstract This research identifies ways to identify and mitigate obsolescence risks in avionics and to provide related aviation safety input to the FAA for the development of regulations, policy, guidance and training. Obsolescence and obsolescence management of avionics products is a technically challenging and costly financial problem with many adverse business impacts for both the avionics suppliers and their customers. Obsolescence is not unique to the aerospace industry but has special problems because of the typically long life cycle of aircraft and a requirement to comply with airworthiness regulations that makes continuous change complex and costly. Obsolescence is the inevitable consequence of the dependence of aerospace on a supply base whose major markets are outside of aerospace and whose technology lifecycles are much shorter than those other markets. Aerospace has a continual demand for technological progress in aircraft system capabilities and safety improvements, but on a much longer timescale than the technology turnover timescale of the supply base. Obsolescence is and always will be an inevitable occurrence and therefore the goal of obsolescence and lifecycle management is to minimize the recurring cost impacts and the disruption of supply to customers whilst maintaining continued airworthiness and regulatory compliance. This report describes the current state of obsolescence management in the aerospace industry, the processes, standards and tools now being used and the underlying causes. The report addresses the identification, mitigation and avoidance of issues related to obsolescence in systems, software, and airborne electronic hardware development, the related design assurance and certification considerations and optimal methods for life cycle maintenance and technical refreshment. The report identifies known and emerging obstacles, problems, issues and gaps in existing standards and guidance, proposes standards and assurance techniques that may minimize the impact of obsolescence, and suggests how manufacturers can pro-actively plan and manage the life cycle of their products. The report describes the extant research on numerical methods for obsolescence risk assessment and related economic modeling and provides recommendations on further public guidance and standards that would assist industry and users in adapting to a dynamic environment. The report suggests some industry and regulatory practices that could promote best practice, reduce costs and inconvenience, and improve the product lifecycle planning process. Finally the report suggests some relevant research topics that are not well addressed presently and should be considered for future work. The report suggests that the obsolescence problem cannot be solved only by engineering methods, but also requires pro-active measures and risk-awareness planning by both customers and suppliers. Obsolescence is complex mix of engineering, economic and business issues with many associated uncertainties. These uncertainties arise from the supply base and customer base, which requires marketing, engineering and economic planning and analysis using numerical risk assessment methods that measure uncertainty. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Airborne electronic hardware, obsolescence, life cycle management, This document is available to the U.S. public through the life cycle plan, avionics sustainment, COTS, intellectual property, National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield, continued airworthiness Virginia 22161. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 206 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author thanks the following individuals for their thoughtful suggestions and comments. Barbara Lingberg (FAA) Chuck Kilgore (FAA) Robin Sova (FAA) Gary Horan (FAA) Bob Manners (Lumark Technologies, Inc., Contractor for the FAA) Bill Haselrick (Honeywell) i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................. I TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ II LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ IV LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................... V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................... VIII 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 1 2. LITERATURE SEARCH ................................................................................................... 3 3. CURRENT INDUSTRY PRACTICE ................................................................................ 4 3.1. Responses to Obsolescence 8 3.2. Obsolescence in the General Aviation Industry 9 3.3. Military Obsolescence 10 3.4. The Causes of Obsolescence 11 3.5. Obsolescence of Systems 12 3.5.1. Legislation Induced Obsolescence 13 3.5.2. Regulation and Mandate Induced Obsolescence 14 3.5.2.1. Avionics 15 3.5.2.2. Engine Equipment 16 3.6. Obsolescence of System Software 16 3.7. Obsolescence of Hardware Components 17 3.8. Obsolescence of Tools and Platforms 18 3.9. Obsolescence of Manufacturing and Repair Facilities 19 3.10. Obsolescence Management Tools and Resources 19 3.10.1. Component Obsolescence Information Services 20 3.10.2. Obsolete Component Sources 22 3.10.3. Standards, Guides and Other Documents 23 4. KNOWN AND EMERGING ISSUES ............................................................................. 24 4.1. Components Obsolescence Forecasting 24 4.1.1. Predictions Uncertainty 24 4.2. Last Time Buy Estimation and Inventory Management 25 4.3. Optimum Resolution Method Selection 26 4.4. Performance Based Logistics Risk Assessment 27 4.5. Design Patterns 27 4.6. Customer Notification Period of System EOL and Continued Support 28 ii 4.7. Maintaining Software and HDL Tools and Platforms 28 4.8. Maintaining Manufacturing and Repair Capability 28 4.9. Compliance Auditing 28 4.10. PCN Processing 29 4.11. Security 29 5. EXISTING R&D ............................................................................................................... 30 5.1. Economic and Life Cycle Modeling 30 5.1.1. Estimating Life Time Buy Quantity 31 5.1.2. Life Cycle Cost Estimation 31 5.1.3. Selection and Timing of Resolution Options 32 5.2. Component Obsolescence Forecasting 33 5.2.1. Demand Side Methods 33 5.2.2. Supply Side Methods 34 5.3. Design Methods for Obsolescence and Mitigation 34 5.3.1. Mitigating Software Obsolescence