VU Research Portal Modernize or Die? drs. Schumacher, G. 2012 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) drs. Schumacher, G. (2012). Modernize or Die? Social Democrats, Welfare State Retrenchment and the Choice between Office and Policy. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. E-mail address: [email protected] Download date: 25. Sep. 2021 “Modernize or Die”? Social Democrats, Welfare State Retrenchment and the Choice between Office and Policy Reading Committee Dr. B. Burgoon Prof. dr. C. Green‐Pedersen Prof. dr. L. Hooghe Prof. dr. H. Keman Prof. dr. W.C. Müller @ Gijs Schumacher, 2011 ISBN 978‐90‐5335‐495‐7 All rights reserved. Save exceptions by law, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written permission of the proprietor. Cover design by Hannah Kay Piché and Guusje Smit. Titel quote by Tony Blair in Malmö, June 7 1997. Printed by Ridderprint, Ridderkerk. VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT “Modernize or Die”? Social Democrats, Welfare State Retrenchment and the Choice between Office and Policy ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad Doctor aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, op gezag van de rector magnificus prof.dr. L.M. Bouter, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van de promotiecommissie van de faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen op dinsdag 10 januari 2012 om 15.45 uur in de aula van de universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105 door Gijs Schumacher geboren te Harderwijk promotor: prof.dr. C.J. van Kersbergen copromotor: dr. B. Vis Table of contents List of figures ............................................................................................................ iv List of tables ............................................................................................................... v List of abbreviations ................................................................................................. vii Acknowlegdments ..................................................................................................... ix 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Why the welfare state, why social democrats? ............................................................... 4 1.2 Social democrats and welfare state retrenchment .......................................................... 6 1.3 Intra‐Party Balance of Power and Party Goals ................................................................. 9 1.4 A model of why social democrats retrench ................................................................... 12 1.5 Outline and contribution to theory ................................................................................ 14 2 Political Parties’ Welfare Image, Electoral Punishment and Welfare State Retrenchment ........................................................................................ 18 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Voters’ conflicting preferences ...................................................................................... 21 2.3 Do parties matter? ......................................................................................................... 24 2.4 Parties’ welfare image and the degree of electoral punishment .................................. 25 2.5 Data ................................................................................................................................ 28 2.6 Method ........................................................................................................................... 31 2.7 Findings........................................................................................................................... 32 2.8 To which party do disappointed voters turn? ................................................................ 35 2.9 Concluding remarks ........................................................................................................ 36 Appendix 2.1. Voter preferences for welfare policies .............................................................. 38 Appendix 2.2. Alternative regression models ........................................................................... 41 3 Why Political Parties Change Their Positions: Environmental Incentives & Party Organization ....................................................................................... 42 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 43 3.2 Theory and hypotheses .................................................................................................. 45 3.3 Data and measurement .................................................................................................. 52 3.4 Estimation technique ..................................................................................................... 56 i 3.5 Empirical results ............................................................................................................. 58 3.6 Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 63 Appendix 3.1. Party organization values per party ................................................................... 66 4 When does the Left do the Right thing? A study of party position change on welfare policies .............................................................................. 68 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 69 4.2 Party Position Shifts ....................................................................................................... 71 4.3 Data and Measurement ................................................................................................. 74 4.4 Estimation technique ..................................................................................................... 79 4.5 Results ............................................................................................................................ 79 4.6 Case illustrations ............................................................................................................ 82 4.7 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 86 Appendix 4.1. Descriptive statistics .......................................................................................... 89 Appendix 4.2. Coding of PvdA and CDA election manifestos ................................................... 91 5 Signaling a Change of Heart? How Parties’ Short‐Term Ideological Shifts Explain Welfare State Reform .......................................................................... 93 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 94 5.2 Situating the Problem ..................................................................................................... 95 5.3 Policy‐seeking and office‐seeking in the context of the welfare state .......................... 97 5.4 Party Signaling ................................................................................................................ 98 5.5 Estimating Party Signals ............................................................................................... 100 5.6 Method and Approach ................................................................................................. 102 5.7 Results .......................................................................................................................... 106 5.8 Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 113 6 When do Social Democrats Retrench the Welfare State? ......................... 115 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 116 6.2 Assumptions of Party Behavior in the Welfare State Literature .................................. 118 6.3 The Utility of Welfare State Retrenchment ................................................................. 120 6.4 Simulation of Retrenchment ........................................................................................ 121 6.5 Results