CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN The Third Report on Proposals and Policies 2018-2032 February 2018 In 2009, the Scottish Parliament passed unanimously the most ambitious climate change legislation anywhere in the world. Eight years on, we are now publishing our Third Report on Proposals and Policies, the Climate Change Plan (CCP), which will take us to 2032. Laid before the Scottish Parliament by the Scottish Ministers under section 35 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, February 2018 Printed on 100% recycled paper SG/2018/18 Climate Change Plan Contents 01 CONTENTS Ministerial Foreword 04 PART ONE: Scotland’s path to a sustainable, inclusive low carbon society 21 Executive Summary 09 Introduction 09 Context 22 Statutory duty 09 Our vision 22 Scotland’s progress to date 10 Our decarbonisation pathway to 2032 24 Our collaborative approach 11 Scotland’s achievements 25 The Scottish economy 12 Scotland’s world leading climate change legislation 26 International 13 Global costs 27 Vision by sector 15 Wider impacts in Scotland of the Conclusion 19 Climate Change Plan 27 Introduction 20 Adapting to Scotland’s changing Finalising the Climate Change Plan 20 climate 28 Natural Capital 29 Our approach 32 The public sector 32 The planning system 33 The role of communities 36 Behaviour change and public engagement 37 The transition to a low carbon economy 42 The role of enterprise agencies 44 Challenges and opportunities 44 Working with and support for businesses 46 Scotland’s role as a global citizen 47 Global climate justice 48 Scotland and the European Union 49 Continued Scottish participation in the EU ETS 50 02 Climate Change Plan Contents PART TWO: Statutory duties, methodologies and monitoring 51 PART THREE: Sector Pathways 63 Statutory duties and methodologies 52 Chapter One: Electricity 64 Setting the targets 52 Where we are now 65 Compensating for excess emissions 54 Progress since RPP2 66 Accounting for emissions 54 Our ambition 67 How we account for the traded Policy outcomes, policies, development sector (the EU ETS) 54 milestones and proposals 69 The domestic effort target 56 Enabling factors and wider impacts 78 Revisions to the baseline 56 Consumption emissions 56 Chapter Two: Buildings 80 The wider public sector – Where we are now 81 mandatory reporting 57 Progress since RPP2 83 The TIMES Whole System Energy Model 57 Our ambition 87 Policy outcomes, policies, development Monitoring implementation of the milestones and proposals 91 Climate Change Plan 59 Enabling factors and wider impacts 97 Developing the Monitoring Framework 60 Indicators 60 Chapter Three: Transport 102 Governance of the Monitoring Where we are now 103 Framework 62 Progress since RPP2 108 Our ambition 111 Policy outcomes, policies, development milestones and proposals 115 Enabling factors and wider impacts 135 Climate Change Plan Contents 03 Chapter Four: Industry 138 Chapter Seven: Agriculture 189 Where we are now 139 Where we are now 190 Progress since RPP2 140 Progress since RPP2 191 Our ambition 141 Our ambition 192 Policy outcomes, policies, development Policy outcomes, policies, development milestones and proposals 146 milestones and proposals 196 Enabling factors and wider impacts 151 Enabling factors and wider impacts 205 ANNEX 209 Chapter Five: Waste 153 Where we are now 154 How we got here 210 Progress since RPP2 155 Committee on Climate Change – Reducing emissions in Scotland – Our ambition 156 2017 progress report 212 Policy outcomes, policies, development The Climate Change Plan and milestones and proposals 157 the energy strategy 212 Enabling factors and wider impacts 163 Stakeholder engagement 213 Chapter Six: Land Use, Land Use Strategic Environmental Assessment 213 Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) 165 Definitions: policy outcomes, policies, development milestones and Where we are now 166 proposals 214 Progress since RPP2 166 Glossary 214 Our ambition 167 List of Acronyms 217 Forestry 169 Where we are now 169 Our ambition 171 Forestry policy outcomes, policies, development milestones and proposals 174 Enabling factors and wider impacts 178 Peat 182 Where we are now 182 Our ambition 182 Peat policy outcome, policies and development milestones 184 Enabling factors and wider impacts 186 04 Climate Change Plan Ministerial Foreword MINISTERIAL FOREWORD In 2009, the Scottish Parliament passed the most ambitious climate change legislation anywhere in the world. That Act set the target of a 42% reduction in emissions by 2020 and an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050. We are now well on track to meet that 2020 target, and, eight years on from the Act receiving royal assent, I am proud to be publishing our Third Report on Proposals and Policies – this Climate Change Plan – which sets out our ambitious decarbonisation plans “There are different emissions to 2032. reduction pathways that could be followed, but my Cabinet 2018 is Scotland’s Year of Young People. It is fitting that we are setting out our plans colleagues and I have selected now. Many of Scotland’s young people the path that we believe is the are leaders in their own right in tackling most beneficial to the people climate change. The 2050 Climate Group, of Scotland.” for example, aims to equip Scotland’s young people with climate change knowledge and leadership skills, so that they can lead the way to a sustainable, low carbon society by 2050. The Group inspires people to act both in Scotland and abroad, and I hope that our young people will continue to be leading, passionate and innovative partners as we implement this Plan. In Scotland we are already starting to feel the impacts of a changing climate, and more serious impacts are being felt across the world, particularly by communities that are already vulnerable. No-one should be in any doubt about the determination of Scotland to discharge our moral responsibility to deal with climate change. Climate Change Plan Ministerial Foreword 05 In November last year, the international We have abundant renewable energy community met in Bonn for the annual resources that – with our careful stewardship United Nations climate change conference. – give us huge natural advantages. We The First Minister and I attended and were have a strong track record in engineering heartened to be part of the growing global and technological innovation that we are commitment to tackle climate change. already building on. The low carbon and We took the opportunity to highlight renewable energy sectors now support Scotland’s leadership to an international and 49,000 jobs in Scotland. Today, workers influential audience at the highest level. This in Scottish yards are manufacturing the leadership, of course, has to be translated components that will power the future. Our into delivery. As the First Minister said when world class universities are thriving and our pledging to work with nations, regions, supply chains are growing. cities and businesses to create a coalition for action, “our ambitions must live up to My Cabinet colleagues and I are the scale of the challenge, and our actions determined to draw on all of these assets must live up to our ambitions.” This Climate to set Scotland on a decarbonisation Change Plan sets out our domestic plans path that protects and grows the Scottish to ensure we continue to be leaders and economy, while ensuring that opportunities collaborators in this coalition. and challenges are spread evenly across all parts of society. Through this Plan, and other companion documents such as our Energy “Our ambitions must live up to Strategy, we are creating the best possible the scale of the challenge, and business environment in Scotland, sending a our actions must live up to our clear signal that Scotland is the place to be ambitions.” for investment in low carbon and associated technologies. Of course, tackling climate change is not A healthy economy is of course dependent just about our moral responsibility. Scotland on a healthy natural environment. Our must provide certainty to businesses and precious wildlife and ecosystems are investors in order to seize the economic already being affected by the changing opportunities offered by the transition to low climate. However, the conservation and carbon technologies, products and services. restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems, Recent analysis by the International Finance such as peatlands and woodlands, can help Corporation indicates that the 2015 UN Paris regulate the climate by sequestering carbon. Agreement will help open up $23 trillion worth Healthy ecosystems also have the potential of opportunities between now and 2030. to mitigate some of the vulnerabilities caused by a changing climate, for example as part of flood management practices. With my responsibilities for Environment, Climate 06 Climate Change Plan Ministerial Foreword Change and Land Reform, I will continue to for heat and transport. System quality and ensure that our policies in these areas are resilience will be ensured through diverse intimately linked to the benefit of all. generation technologies, including gas generation, increased storage, smart grid In finalising this Climate Change Plan, my technologies and improved interconnection. Cabinet colleagues and I have selected the Emissions from electricity generation are path that we believe is the most beneficial expected to fall by 28% over the lifetime to the people of Scotland, maximising of the Plan. The Scottish Government is opportunities and minimising disruption continuing to support the development for households, communities, business of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as and industry. There are of course different a vital technology to meet our long-term emissions reduction pathways that could be emissions reductions targets. followed. To help us decide on the optimal pathway for Scotland and deliver the best Recognising the importance of energy use value for money we used the Scottish TIMES in buildings in achieving climate change model. TIMES models are accepted by the and fuel poverty objectives, in 2015 we international community as an international designated energy efficiency as a National standard for modelling greenhouse gas Infrastructure Priority.