LLEP Skills Advisory Panel Skills Evidence Base Summary January 2020 1 Introduction Skills Advisory Panels (SAPs) aim to bring together local employers and skills providers to pool knowledge on skills and labour market needs, and to work together to understand and address key local challenges. This includes both immediate needs and challenges and looking at what is required to help local areas adapt to future labour market changes and to grasp future opportunities. This will help colleges, universities and other providers deliver the skills required by employers, now and in the future.1 To support the work of the SAPs, each Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) is expected to produce an evidence base to understand the local skills and labour market. This will allow SAPs to: • understand local skills and labour markets to understand the local position • discuss and agree local skills needs priorities in the short-term and more longer-term • consider how these will be met through local provision over time The following report contains a wide range of information and data including but not restricted to: published government data from the Department for Education and Office for National Statistics (e.g. Education outcomes and participation; Business Register and Employment Survey); third party analysis (e.g. work by consultants to apply statistical modelling to published data); Local Authority datasets (e.g. detailed apprenticeship and Further Education data); literature review of current and future trends; local knowledge of stakeholders. The report had been structured according to the guidance provided to include: • Local Landscape • Skills Demand • Skills Supply • Analysis of Supply and Demand 1 Department for Education Skills Advisory Panel guidance 2 Local Landscape Population Exceeds national averages for: • Working age population2 63.6% (compared to 62.8% nationally) • Rate of growth 1.2% (compared to 0.3% nationally) • Population not born in the UK (migrants) 23.1% which is 3.2% above the national average. 2 All population data sourced from ONS 3 The LLEP Area 4 Employment rates Employment sectors The largest employment sector is Manufacturing employing 59,000. This 3 0.2% JSA claimant rate across LLEP area is a higher proportion than nationally (12.4% LLEP, 9.8% England).7 Half national rate of 0.4% Other large employment sectors include: (both City and County are individually below national rate) • Health (53,000, 11.2%); • Education (47,000, 9.9%); Economic Inactivity • Business Admin and Support (41,000, 8.6%) • Retail (40,000, 8.4%) 21% - same as both England and East Midlands (Further detail is available in the Demand chapter) Average Earnings of LLEP residents: Occupations Professional occupations account for 18% (241,000) of jobs in the LLEP £28,702 - below national levels but slightly higher than the East area, the highest proportion. 4 Midlands average Associate Professional and Technical occupations are next at 14% But big difference between City and County (184,000) Job growth Wages in the city have risen in 2019 after several years of being Managerial and Professional jobs have seen the largest growth between static and are around £1,500 p.a. higher than in 2014, whilst wages 2014-2019, a 13% rise from 240,000 to 280,000 jobs in England have increased by around £3k and wages in Leicestershire by almost £4k during the same 5 year period. Operative and Elementary; and Administration and Skilled Trades have shown very little growth in LLEP workplaces – between 1%-7% although all are still significant sectors for employment, employing a combined total of 269,000 people. 3 Unemployment data - JSA claimant data ONS 4 Average Annual Earnings by area ONS 7 All occupational data - Business Register and Employment survey 2018 ONS 5 Business Growth Productivity There are 42,000 Businesses in the LLEP area5 Lower than England average Nominal Gross Value Added by sector8: New business growth is higher than the national rate, the East Midlands and Midlands Engine area. £30.91 per hour in Leicestershire compared to £33.99 nationally 0.4% are Large businesses (250+ Of the businesses employees) in the LLEP area: 1.7% are Medium (50 to 249) 9% are Small (10 to 49) 89% are Micro Businesses (0-9) Enterprise Zones Midlands Engine An Enterprise Zone is an area where policies are in place to encourage The Leicester and Leicestershire Economic Partnership is one of 9 LEP economic growth and development. The LLEP area has 2 EZs: partners in the Midlands Engine, alongside 20 Universities, all top tier Local Authorities in the region, and 1000s of businesses. Loughborough and Leicester Science and Innovation Enterprise Zone: The Midlands Engine has five main themes: • Charnwood Campus offers world-class laboratories and office • Midlands Connect – long term transport strategy for the region space for the bio-medical and pharmaceutical sectors. The site is • Innovation and Enterprise – to drive business innovation and also the first UK Life Science Opportunity Zone. improve productivity and competitiveness • Skills – to provide skills training tailored to employer demand • Leicester Waterside is a central city location • International Trade and Investment – increase employment, • Loughborough University Science and Enterprise Park is one of diversify the business base, develop local supply chains that the UK’s largest science parks support global brands • Shape Great Places – develop regional branding and strengthen MIRA Technology Park: is a world leading automotive research the area’s reputation across global markets and development park. 5 Number of businesses and type - UK Business Counts, ONS 2010-19 8 Subregional Productivity, ONS, 2017, Nominal Gross Value Added, ONS 2016, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings ONS 2013-18 6 Growth in Business Sectors 2013 – 2018 The Financial and Professional sector is the largest sector in the LLEP by number of businesses, twice as high as any other sector6. However, this could include many micro businesses e.g. Number of businesses Independent Financial advisors. It is important to note that 9 out of 10 businesses in the LLEP area are micro businesses, employing less than 10 people, therefore a high number Business Support services and Transport are the sectors with the of businesses and high growth does not necessarily equate to high largest growth, both showing sector growth of 68%. employment demand. For example, using two sectors from the top and bottom of the list, a new Warehouse (one business) could comfortably employ more people than several independent financial advisors (i.e. the Financial and Professional sector). 6 UK Business Counts, ONS 2010-18 7 Education landscape 67 State funded Secondary schools 3 Universities 77.3% were rated as Good or Outstanding with the following split9… • University of Leicester • De Montfort University • Loughborough University 9 Colleges 2019 GCSE attainment varied across the region with both areas below national • Stephenson College • Leicester College levels10 (Average Attainment 8 score – new DfE GCSE benchmark): • Loughborough College • North Warwickshire • Brooksby Melton College and South • Gateway Sixth Form Leicestershire college College • Homefield College • WQE and Regent College (special college) Group • RNIB College Loughborough (special 22 Independent schools which vary in size from 100 to 1000+ pupils. These Plus 19 school sixth forms college) schools include traditional Grammar and High schools as well as several faith based schools. Qualifications Post 16 33% of residents in the LLEP Area are qualified to Degree level The same as the East Midlands and Midlands Engine area but lower than the England level of 39%.11 12% of residents in the LLEP Area have No Qualifications This is higher than East Midlands and Midlands Engine area and 4% higher than the England average. 9 Ofsted Management information – state funded school inspections September 2019 10 Attainment data – Local Authority Interactive Tool from Department for Education 11 Qualifications information from Annual Population Survey, ONS, 2018 8 Deprivation The LLEP ranks 23 out of 38 LEPs for deprivation (38 being the least deprived). However, there is a stark contrast between city and county with 20.3% of city neighbourhoods in the most deprived 10% nationally. In contrast, the 7 Leicestershire Districts rank between 216 and 308 (out of 317 Districts where high is least deprived), although pockets of deprivation do exist in North West Leicestershire and Charnwood12. NEET (16-17 year olds) NEET over the past 2 years has been around13: High deprivation Low deprivation The chart below shows the proportion of neighbourhoods in the most Although Leicester City NEET is generally lower than Derby or deprived 10% in the country and demonstrates the contrast between Nottingham. The table below shows how NEET differs between cities city and county and counties in the East Midlands: 12 Deprivation data from Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, 2019 13 NCCIS data released to Local Authorities August 2019 9 Skills Demand LLEP Area Job Replacement and Expansion Demand 2017-2023 499,200 estimated jobs in the LLEP area. There will also be a requirement in all sectors to fill vacancies arising through ‘replacement demand’, i.e. people leaving the workforce due to retirement or mortality. It is estimated that Forecast to rise to 518,670 by 2023 replacement demand will equate to 146,150 vacancies in the LLEP area between 2017 and 2023.16 This includes an ‘expansion demand’* of