CHINA OUTLOOK 2018 A new era, a new paradigm of globalisation 2018 kpmg.com/globalchina Contents Foreword 4 1. Business environment: China’s ‘new economic cycle’ and the ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ 1 China’s economy enters the second half of an L-shaped recovery 6 1.1 After the global financial crisis, China went through six years of declining growth 1.2 Early signs of China’s economic recovery began to emerge in the second half of 2016 1.3 2018: Consolidating the foundations of China’s economic recovery 1.4 Twists and turns in China’s L-shaped recovery 2 China on the verge of a ‘new economic cycle’ 15 2.1 The emergence of the seventh economic cycle since the ‘reform and opening up’ era began 2.2 Supply-side structural reforms provide a strong foundation for the ‘new economic cycle’ 2.3 The 19th CPC National Congress – a political starting point for the ‘new economic cycle’ 2.4 The ‘new economic cycle’ signals China’s third 30-year period of economic transformation 2.5 The engines of the ‘new economic cycle’ are evolving relative to those of the ‘old economic cycle’ 3 China’s ‘new economic cycle’ will boost the resilience of 28 global growth 3.1 China’s importance in the global economy has increased markedly 3.2 China’s shift from a ‘receiver’ of global economic cycles to an ‘initiator’ 3.3 China’s ‘new economic cycle’ is set to drive the recovery of the global economy 4 Implementation of the ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative advances the 30 ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ 4.1 Globalisation drove half a century of cross-border trade and investment prosperity 4.2 Recent years saw slowdowns in cross-border investment 4.3 It will be difficult for the traditional model of globalisation to lead the world out of the post-crisis era 4.4 Implementation of the ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative will drive the emergence of a `new paradigm of globalisation’ 5 New investment opportunities come with risks 35 5.1 The initial phase of a ‘new economic cycle’ is often the best time to test new investment approaches 5.2 The initial phase of a ‘new economic cycle’ is also often the most risky time for investment 5.3 Prudent planning of new investments around the world in the context of China’s ‘new economic cycle’ and the ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ © 2018 KPMG Huazhen LLP — a People’s Republic of China partnership, KPMG Advisory (China) Limited — a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China, and KPMG — a Hong Kong partnership, are member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. China Outlook 2018 1 2. Readjusting FDI: From seeking resource cost efficiency to a strategic market approach 1 Key reasons underlining the positive prospects for China’s 38 inward foreign direct investment 1.1 A medium-high growth rate in an economy the size of China’s ‘underwrites’ demand for investment 1.2 More FDI is needed to support China’s economic transformation under the ‘new normal’ 1.3 The Chinese Government understands and supports the key role that FDI can play in enabling China’s economic transformation 1.4 Macroeconomic risks notwithstanding, China remains one of the world’s most attractive investment destinations 2 China’s evolving advantages in attracting investment 50 2.1 From ‘cheap labour’ to ‘value-for-money’, high-quality human capital 2.2 From soft environmental regulations to a comprehensive industrial ecosystem 2.3 From a large low-end market to a large potential market for mid-range to high-end products 2.4 From generous policy incentives to an orderly business environment 3 A structural evolution in China’s FDI 58 3.1 From being driven by developed markets to being buoyed by emerging markets 3.2 From greenfield investment to cross-border M&A 3.3 From regional imbalance to regional balance 3.4 From traditional manufacturing to services and high-end manufacturing 4 New mindsets needed for investing in a ‘new economic cycle’ 62 4.1 A mindset of careful planning and disciplined execution: Investing in China under the ‘new normal’ 4.2 A mindset of risk management and control: Investing in China given new macroeconomic risks 4.3 A deeply strategic mindset: investing in the context of China’s new advantages 4.4 A mindset of proactive compliance: investing in China in the new business environment © 2018 KPMG Huazhen LLP — a People’s Republic of China partnership, KPMG Advisory (China) Limited — a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China, and KPMG — a Hong Kong partnership, are member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 22 China Outlook 2018 3. A new phase for ODI: From quantitative growth to quality-oriented development 1 China has become a major provider of global investment 66 1.1 China is one of the world’s largest outbound investors 1.2 China has the world’s sixth largest stock of foreign investment 1.3 China will become the main engine of global cross-border investment in the future 2 Chinese companies are beginning to reassess their outbound 68 investments 2.1 A shift from the acquisition of energy and natural resources to key inputs needed for business operations 2.2 A shift from asset allocation and value preservation to strategic deployment and operations 2.3 A shift from traditional partners to nations along the ‘Belt and Road’ 3 China’s model of outbound investment is being continually 72 improved and refined 3.1 Cross-border M&A is emerging as the primary form of investment 3.2 Equity investment is becoming an important tool for making overseas investments 3.3 Private and state-owned companies join forces to ‘go out’ 3.4 Cooperation between China’s state capital and sovereign funds, and private capital from China and abroad 4 Chinese outbound investment has a new role to play in the 75 ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ 4.1 The ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ will revitalise global cross-border investment 4.2 At the core of the ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ lies a realignment of the global industrial value chain and a readjustment of global trade and investment 4.3 China’s transformation and outbound investment will drive a new boom in global investment 5 Chinese and foreign companies are strengthening collaboration 78 in third-country markets 5.1 The development of the ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative opens up the potential for collaboration in third-country markets 5.2 Cooperation in third-country markets will cover multiple sectors 5.3 Managing investment and operating risks in third-country markets © 2018 KPMG Huazhen LLP — a People’s Republic of China partnership, KPMG Advisory (China) Limited — a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China, and KPMG — a Hong Kong partnership, are member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. China Outlook 2018 3 4. Coordinated development of FDI and ODI: China’s inbound and outbound investment in the ‘new economic cycle’ and the ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ 1 A new phase in China: Seeking higher quality FDI, and ‘going 84 out’ with a clearer purpose 1.1 The ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ and the ‘new economic cycle’ will profoundly reshape China’s inbound and outbound investment 1.2 The new normal and the new cycle call for higher-quality FDI 1.3 The ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ calls for more rational outbound investment by Chinese companies 2 The ‘new paradigm of globalisation’: China eyes cooperation 87 with the world, and the world eyes Chinese investment 2.1 Chinese companies look forward to win-win cooperation with foreign partners on the global stage 2.2 Global economic recovery and the emergence of the ‘new paradigm of globalisation’ urgently require China’s participation 3 Chinese-style transformation: encouraging two-way capital 88 flows with improved support and conditions for inbound and outbound investment 3.1 Easing market access restrictions will be conducive to reaching agreement on how to achieve ‘investment reciprocity’ 3.2 Strengthening supervision and regulation of market conduct will help ensure fair competition between state-owned and non-state-owned, and between Chinese and foreign-owned enterprises 3.3 Regulating two-way investment flows will help maintain market order for FDI and ODI 3.4 Deepening financial system reform will improve the support and conditions for FDI and ODI Conclusion 90 Acknowledgements 91 © 2018 KPMG Huazhen LLP — a People’s Republic of China partnership, KPMG Advisory (China) Limited — a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China, and KPMG — a Hong Kong partnership, are member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 44 China Outlook 2018 Foreword 2017 was a momentous year as China – the world’s second-largest economy and largest developing economyi – signalled its intention to assume a global leadership role commensurate with its size and importance to global economic growth and prosperity. First, amid a rising tide of protectionism, anti-globalisation sentiment and other economic and political issues, President Xi Jinping’s keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos delivered a memorable defence of “economic globalisation” that resonated with business and political leaders at the annual gathering.ii Honson To Later in the year, China hosted the inaugural Belt and Road Forum for Chairman International Cooperation in Beijing.