Analyser Greek Equities Company news & views Equity Research April 4, 2013 Companies Mentioned Folli Follie | FY 12 Review Folli Follie FY 12 performance was strong in most non Greek segments and in line with our Folli Follie estimates on group level. Both Jewelry Watches Accessories in Asia and Travel Retail had a Rating: Outperform solid performance with good sales growth. In contrast, department stores and retail Target Price: €16.6 wholesale were negatively affected by the economic conditions in countries of operation. Dufry Deal Update According to the management, it is a matter of 2-3 weeks for the completion of the deal with Dufry. Bureaucratic reasons were blamed for the delay. Apparently, the hold up with Dufry has put back the refinancing process but the CEO was again confident that it will be resolved just a month after the conclusion of the deal. Currently net debt/EBITDA remains unchanged at c.3x thus making the deal with Dufry an important catalyst for reducing debt level. Remain Positive – No Estimate/TP Change We re-iterate our outperform recommendation as we believe the deal with Dufry will allow FF to refinance its debt and increase brand awareness. Additionally, prospects in Asia look Analysts promising as l-f-l could reach 5% y-o-y and the network increases by c. 25 new stores. Please note that during the past month the stock has outperformed the Greek market by 9% Manousos Stathoudakis +30 210 367 7543 (absolute -6%) as investors positively discount FFs’ foreign prospects. Nikos Lianeris, CFA FY 12 in a glimpse +30 210 367 7534 Top line reached €1,110mn, 8.7% y-o-y (Vs. AFe €1,103mn). JWA sales were up 18.3% to Antonis Diapoulis €583.8mn (vs. AFe €576.4mn) and Travel Retail reached €285.8mn (+5.6% y-o-y, vs. AFe +30 210 367 7532 €310.6mn). Other segments were weaker as retail/wholesale was down 7.3% y-o-y to Angelos Chorafas +30 210 367 7535 €98.4mn (vs. AFe €93.5mn) and Department stores sales stood at €123.8mn (-1.6% y-o-y, Nikos Katsenos vs. AFe €118.4mn). Group EBITDA reached €212.8mn (+7.1% y-o-y, margin 19.2%, vs. AFe +30 210 367 7547 €213.4mn), with JWA up 16% y-o-y to €132.4mn (vs. AFe €120.1mn) and Travel retail at €83.7mn (-0.7% y-o-y, vs. AFe €90.5mn). Bottom line came at €93.7mn (+4.7% y-o-y vs. [email protected] AFe €99.8mn). The company was FCF negative by €16mn (above AFe of €34mn) on the back of better WC to our estimates (high de-stocking took place in 4Q 12). Net Debt reached €614.6mn, up by a delta of €18mn from 2011a (net debt/ebitda at 2.9x, gearing at 0.9 both marginally down y-o-y). Antonis Diapoulis +30 210 367 7532 Alpha Finance does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Consequently, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the report Alpha Finance Equity Research Analyser FY 12 Review 2012 – Per Segment Presentation Jewelry, Watches Accessories Sales were up 18.3% mostly due to the increase in Asia. We estimate, Asian sales (incl. Japan) were up 24% implying a l-f-l growth of c. 8%. Asian sales represent 80% of total sales followed by Europe (16.7%) and North America (3.1%). In Europe revenues were down 4% y- o-y and in N. America up 14% y-o-y. Profitability margins were rather flat as gross margin stood at 55.2% vs. 56% in 2011 and EBITDA margin at 22.7% vs. 23.2% in 2011. The company has 539 POS as of December 2012 vs. 488 in 2011 and is represented in 37 airlines. We expect in 2013 net additions of 32 POS. Travel Retail It was a good year for this segment despite the unfavorable economic conditions in Greece. Revenues increased 3.2% y-o-y to €300mn and EBITDA was flat at €83.7mn (-0.7% y-o-y). Passenger departures were down 6% y-o-y, but spending was up 4.15% y-o-y fully counterbalancing this erosion. Retail/Wholesale This segment was directly affected by the Greek economic conditions as 72.6% of sales originate from Greece. Revenues were down 7.3% y-o-y to €98.4mn and EBITDA improved to -€6.3mn from -€8.7mn in 2011. Department Stores FF operated a new department store in Thessaloniki and increased its network to 5 (2 discount stores and 3 Attica stores). Sales were down 1.6% y-o-y to €123.8mn and EBITDA also decreased by 42.3% y-o-y to €6.4mn. Top line was impacted by the economic conditions and operating profitability was also impacted by the operation of the new store. Sales B/D (mn eu) 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e Sales of JWA 476.4 493.3 583.8 652.6 % change -0.5% 3.6% 18.3% 13.2% % of total 47.9% 48.3% 52.6% 76.7% Travel Retail 257.6 290.9 300.3 319.2 % change -6.0% 12.9% 3.2% 2.8% % of total 25.9% 28.5% 27.1% 37.5% Retail & Whole Sale 117.2 106.2 98.4 86.0 % change 0.0% -9.4% -7.3% -8.0% % of total 13.7% 12.3% 11.2% 12.7% Department stores 136.4 125.9 123.8 108.3 % change 0.0% -7.7% -1.7% -8.5% % of total 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 10.1% Other 7.0 5.1 3.7 4.0 % change 0.0% -27.1% -20.0% -2.5% % of total 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% Intersegment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revenues 994.6 1021.4 1110.0 850.9 % change 0.2% 2.7% 8.7% -22.8% Source: AFe | company data Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix 1 Alpha Finance Equity Research Analyser Gross Profit B/D (mn eu) 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e JWA 276.3 276.3 322.5 353.1 % change 3.6% 0.0% 16.7% 9.5% % margin 58.0% 56.0% 55.2% 54.6% % of total 54.9% 53.5% 57.9% 84.8% Travel Retail 130.9 151.6 151.7 147.8 % change 0.3% 15.8% 0.1% -2.6% % margin 50.8% 52.1% 50.5% 50.5% % of total 26.0% 29.3% 27.2% 35.5% Retail & Whole Sale 46.3 42.8 38.9 38.0 % change -12.4% -7.6% -9.2% -2.2% % margin 39.5% 40.3% 39.5% 42% % of total 9.2% 8.3% 7.0% 9.1% Department stores 46.4 44.9 43.5 25.2 % change -8.8% -3.1% -3.3% -41.9% % margin 34.0% 35.7% 35.1% 22.3% % of total 9.2% 8.7% 7.8% 6.1% Other 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 % change 0.0% -32.9% -64.5% -25.8% % margin 20.4% 18.8% 9.2% 7.0% % of total 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Gross profit 503.5 516.5 556.9 416.6 % change 2.1% 2.6% 7.8% -25.2% % margin 50.6% 50.6% 50.2% 48.8% Source: AFe | company data EBITDA B/D (mn eu) 2010a 2011a 2012e 2013e Jeweler, Watches Accessories 125.0 114.4 132.4 138.2 % change 0.0% -8.4% 15.7% 4.4% % margin 26.2% 23.2% 22.7% 21.4% % of total 63.0% 57.6% 62.2% 99.4% Travel Retail 57.3 84.3 83.8 75.6 % change 3.5% 47.1% -0.6% -9.7% % margin 22.2% 29.0% 27.9% 25.9% % of total 28.9% 42.4% 39.4% 0.0% Retail & Whole Sale -1.3 -8.7 -6.3 0.9 % change 0.0% 557.6% -27.7% -114.4% % margin -1.1% -8.2% -6.4% 1.0% % of total -0.7% -4.4% -3.0% 0.7% Department stores 14.7 11.1 6.4 1.7 % change 0.0% -24.8% -41.9% -73.0% % margin 10.8% 8.8% 5.2% 1.3% % of total 7.4% 5.6% 3.0% 1.3% Other -1.30 -2.34 -3.5 -1.8 % change 0.0% 80.4% 49.1% -48.2% % margin -18.5% -45.8% -94.1% -50.0% % of total -0.7% -1.2% -1.6% -1.3% EBITDA 198.4 198.7 212.8 139.1 % change 0.0% 0.2% 7.1% -34.7% % margin 19.9% 19.5% 19.2% 16.3% Source: AFe | company data Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix 2 Alpha Finance Equity Research Analyser Profit & Loss (mn eu) 2010a 2011a 2012a 2012e vs. AFe 2013e Revenues 994.6 1021.4 1110.0 1102.9 0.6% 850.9 % change 0.2% 2.7% 8.7% 8.0% -22.8% Cost of Goods sold 491.1 504.9 553.2 552.0 434.6 % change -1.6% 2.8% 9.6% 9.3% -21.3% Gross profit 503.5 516.5 556.9 550.9 1.1% 416.6 % change 2.1% 2.6% 7.8% 6.7% -25.2% % margin 50.6% 50.6% 50.2% 50.0% 48.8% EBIT 176.7 174.0 185.8 191.4 -2.9% 119.9 % change -0.5% -1.5% 6.8% 10.0% -35.5% % margin 17.8% 17.0% 16.7% 17.4% 14.0% Depreciation 21.7 24.8 27.0 22.0 19.2 EBITDA 198.4 198.7 212.8 213.4 -0.3% 139.1 % change 0.0% 0.2% 7.1% 7.4% -34.7% % margin 19.9% 19.5% 19.2% 19.4% 16.3% € 0.00 PBT 129.7 121.9 131.0 133.3 -1.7% 302.6 % change 0.0% -6.0% 7.4% 9.3% 131.0% % margin 13.0% 11.9% 11.8% 12.1% 35.4% Taxes 39.6 30.6 35.3 32.0 65.0 rate 30.5% 25.1% 26.9% 24.0% 21.5% Minorities 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.0 Net income 88.3 89.5 93.7 99.8 -6.0% 235.6 % change -23.2% 1.4% 4.7% 11.4% 151.4% % margin 8.9% 8.8% 8.4% 9.0% 27.6% EPS 1.481 1.356 1.420 1.490 3.569 % change -23.3% -8.4% 4.7% 9.9% 151.4% Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix 3 Alpha Finance Equity Research Analyser Cash Flow – Debt FF reported 2012 FCF of -€15.8mn vs.