; Stability Programme of the Slovak Republic for 2018 to 2021 April 2018 Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND PROJECTIONS .............................................................................................. 8 1.1 External environment .......................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Economic development in Slovakia in 2017 .................................................................................... 10 1.3 Economy development mid-term forecast ...................................................................................... 12 1.4 Cyclical development of the economy ............................................................................................. 15 1.5 Forecast comparison of the MoF SR and other institutions .......................................................... 17 2 PUBLIC FINANCE POSITION ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.1 General government balance in 2017 ............................................................................................... 19 2.2 Current development in 2018 ............................................................................................................ 22 2.3 Medium-term budgetary outlook for 2019 to 2021 .......................................................................... 23 2.4 Structural balance .............................................................................................................................. 24 2.5 Expenditure benchmark .................................................................................................................... 26 2.6 No-policy-change scenario ............................................................................................................... 27 2.7 The impact of fiscal policy on the economy in 2019 to 2021 ......................................................... 31 2.8 General government debt.................................................................................................................. 31 3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSES AND COMPARISON WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE ..................................... 36 3.1 Risk scenarios of development ........................................................................................................ 36 3.2 Comparison with previous update ................................................................................................... 38 4 PUBLIC FINANCE SUSTAINABILITY .......................................................................................................... 39 4.1 Assessment of the overall sustainability of public finance according to EC methodology ....... 39 4.2 Update of the projection of expenditure sensitive to aging and impact on long-term sustainability ................................................................................................................................................... 40 5 PUBLIC FINANCE QUALITY ........................................................................................................................ 43 5.1 Revenue objectives of the general government budget ................................................................. 43 5.2 Expenditure objectives of general government budget ................................................................. 46 5.3 Spending review ................................................................................................................................ 48 5.4 Better investment management ........................................................................................................ 51 6 INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF PUBLIC FINANCE..................................................................................... 53 7 STRUCTURAL POLICIES ............................................................................................................................ 57 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................................................. 59 2 Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic LIST OF BOXES, TABLES AND FIGURES BOX 1 - Update of the impact of new investments in the automotive industry on the Slovak economy ................ 14 BOX 2 - Methodological differences in the calculation of the potential product by MoF SR and EC ..................... 16 BOX 3 - Evaluation of tax revenue for the year 2017 (a forecast by the Tax Revenue Forecast Committee) ....... 20 BOX 4 - Fiscal stance ............................................................................................................................................ 25 BOX 5 - Additional tax changes ............................................................................................................................. 29 BOX 6 - One-off and temporary expenditure in 2018 ............................................................................................ 30 BOX 7 - Stochastic forecast of gross general government debt ............................................................................ 32 BOX 8 - Stock-flow adjustment .............................................................................................................................. 33 BOX 9 - Updating the projection of pension expenditure by 2070 ......................................................................... 41 BOX 10 - Methodology for calculation of tax gaps on VAT and CIT ...................................................................... 45 BOX 11 - Investment assessment - case study of the Northern Bypass of Prešov ............................................... 52 BOX 12 - Testing of expenditure ceilings in the general government budget ........................................................ 55 BOX 13 - Organization of Expenditure Review ...................................................................................................... 56 TABLE 1 - External assumption for the current forecast ( %) .................................................................................. 8 TABLE 2 - Forecast of selected indicators of the Slovak economy for 2018 to 2021 ............................................ 12 TABLE 3 - Assumptions of the investment plan and production of JLR ................................................................ 14 TABLE 4 - Assumptions of investment and new production of VW ....................................................................... 15 TABLE 5 - Contributions of JLR and VW to growth ............................................................................................... 15 TABLE 6 - Contribution of production factors to potential growth (pp) – MoF SR approach.................................. 16 TABLE 7 - Output gap - MoF SR approach ........................................................................................................... 16 TABLE 8 - Output gap (% of GDP) ........................................................................................................................ 16 TABLE 9 - Comparisons of forecasts of MFSR and other institutions ................................................................... 17 TABLE 10 - Change of fiscal targets (headline deficits) of public sector (% GDP) ................................................ 24 TABLE 11 - Consolidation effort (ESA2010, % GDP) ............................................................................................ 24 TABLE 12 - Structural primary balance - EC methodology (% of GDP) ................................................................ 25 TABLE 13 - Expenditure benchmark (ESA 2010) .................................................................................................. 27 TABLE 14 - Overall consolidation need to achieve the fiscal targets compared to NPC (ESA2010, % of GDP) .. 28 TABLE 15 - List of measures in the fiscal framework for 2018 to 2020 (ESA 2010, compared to NPC, impact on the balance) ........................................................................................................................................................... 28 TABLE 16 - Legislation changes not included in No-Policy-Scenario (% of GDP) ................................................ 29 TABLE 17 - The list of one-off measures in 2017 for the needs of NPC (ESA 2010, EUR mil.) ............................ 30 TABLE 18 - No-policy-change scenario and general government balance (ESA2010, % of GDP) ....................... 30 TABLE 19 - Stock-flow adjustment (% of GDP) ..................................................................................................... 34 TABLE 20 - Contributions to gross debt (mil. eur) ................................................................................................. 34 TABLE 21 - Scenario 1: Slowdown of foreign demand growth by 1 p.p. in years 2018-2021............................... 37 TABLE 22 - Scenario 2: Increase in short-term and long-term interest rates by 1 p.p. in the entire forecast ........ 37 TABLE 23 - Scenario 3: Faster