The Israel-Palestine Conflict: An Asymmetric Struggle. by Felipe Palma Feres Student number: s180566 Matrikelnummer: 447261 Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, programme Global and European Studies, University of Twente and for the degree of Master of Arts, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster. April 15 2018 Supervisors: Dr Shawn Donnelly. University of Twente Ms Manon Westphal. Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster Acknowledgements To my wife Svenja for her patience and unconditional support; to my parents Luis and Marcela, and my sisters Francisca and Macarena for their positive energies sent all the way from Chile; to my supervisors Shawn and Manon for their guidance and advice; and finally, to my Dutch colleagues: Matthijs, Mitchel and Jelle, my German colleagues: Dalia and Nico, and my French colleague: Alexandre, I thank them for their encouragement and friendship. Abstract The current investigation focuses on the asymmetric conflict between Israel and Palestine, which seeks to analyse the origins of the conflict, and the elements characterise the asymmetry between the two conflicting actors. This study includes a vast revision of asymmetric conflict theory that enables the reader to understand the nature of these conflicts and how they can be resolved. The role that third party actors play in negotiation processes and how much impact can they provoke towards the termination of the conflict is also addressed. For this reason, the main objective is to analyse if asymmetric conflicts lead to successful negotiation processes ending in peace accords, and in the particular case of Palestine, if statehood can be established. Furthermore, the analysis of two case studies has been included: the conflict in Northern Ireland and in Colombia, as a solid framework to understand the conditions and results that these conflicts have achieved as an example to the establishment of peace. Analysing the variables of time and political will, has also been a crucial element to understand the differences between Israelis and Palestinians, why there has been a prolongation of the conflict, and how they can be crucial towards conflict resolution. Finally, the conflict between Israel and Palestine is still characterised by violence, therefore the investigation offers possible scenarios towards the resolution of the conflict based on the conditions of exhaustion and foreign intervention to enlighten the asymmetric struggle between Israel and Palestine. Keywords: Asymmetry; conflict; warfare; negotiation; peace; Palestine; Israel; United States; European Union; deadlock; exhaustion; political will; intervention; time; tactics; terror; insurgency; dominance. 2 Table of Contents I. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 5 II. Theory ................................................................................................................... 10 1. Asymmetric Conflict Theory ........................................................................... 10 A. Background ................................................................................................... 10 B. What is Asymmetric Conflict Theory? ............................................................ 14 C. Hypothesis ..................................................................................................... 25 D. Conceptualisation and Operationalisation ..................................................... 25 III. Methodology ........................................................................................................ 27 IV. Analysis ............................................................................................................... 30 1. The Asymmetric Conflict in Northern Ireland ............................................... 31 A. The origin of the conflict and its asymmetry .................................................. 31 B. The Road Towards the Good Friday Agreement ........................................... 36 C. The Role of the United States as a Mediator ................................................ 38 D. Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 40 2. The Asymmetric Conflict in Colombia ........................................................... 42 A. The Colombian Government and the FARC .................................................. 42 B. The Role of the United States and Third Party Actors ................................... 48 C. The Peace Accord ......................................................................................... 51 D. Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 54 3. The Asymmetric conflict between Israel and Palestine ............................... 58 A. Origin of the Asymmetry ................................................................................ 59 4. The Actors and their objectives within the conflict ...................................... 66 A. Israel and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) ................................................... 66 B. Palestine: Hamas and Fatah ......................................................................... 70 5. The Oslo Accords and the on-going conflict ................................................ 77 A. The Oslo Accords and the pursuit of peace .................................................. 77 B. The Failure of the Oslo Accords .................................................................... 81 C. The Second Intifada and the on-going conflict .............................................. 84 6. The intervention and role of third party actors ............................................. 90 A. The role of the United States as a third party actor ....................................... 91 B. The role of the United Nations ....................................................................... 95 C. The European Union as a third party actor ................................................... 98 3 7. A change in the asymmetry: the delegitimisation of Israel ....................... 103 V. Scenarios and Conclusion ............................................................................... 111 VI. Bibliography ...................................................................................................... 122 4 I. Introduction The conflict between Israel and Palestine has prolonged itself for fifty years and has no visible end. The on-going conflict is characterised by territorial, historical, religious and power disputes, which has established itself deeply within the societies and governments of Israelis and Palestinians, whom have witnessed in the flesh the collapse of negotiations and the failure of the international community to stop the violence, the violation of human rights and most of all, the recognition and establishment of the Palestinian state. These factors indicate that a peace agreement is far from being reached, and that security and stability continue being at risk within the Middle East. It is not the task of the investigation to come up with the formula to solve the conflict, although possible scenarios shall be suggested at the end of the analysis. The objective of the investigation is to address the conflict through the lens of asymmetric warfare theory, and see how this theory can shine a light on the outcomes of the conflict. For this reason, the research seeks to address the following questions, which shall be linked to the main research question. The first question is: can a peaceful solution be achieved? A peaceful solution would mean that Israel recognises and facilitates the establishment of the Palestinian statehood and allows Palestinian refugees back into their homeland, and that the occupied territories are returned to the newly recognised state of Palestine. On the other side, Palestine would have the responsibility of recognising the Israeli state and securing the borders of the new Palestinian state so that no further violence erupts between them, leading to an atmosphere of security and stability within the region, allowing the coexistence of both states, leading to the end of the confrontation between them and working towards the establishment of peace. This solution depends on the political will of both actors, especially on behalf of Israel. Moreover, one would also have to consider the intervention and pressure of a third party actor to push Israel and Palestine towards this solution. This leads to a second question; who will take up the responsibility of pressuring and monitoring a future peace process? This question depends on a positive outcome of the first question and if the main research question also falls under a positive result. The two fundamental questions that have been exposed are key for the further analysis of the asymmetric struggle between Israel and Palestine. Therefore, knowing that there is abundant literature on the conflict between Israel and Palestine, 5 the investigation focuses on the findings that relate best in regards to the nature of the conflict, and how the possibility of establishing the Palestinian statehood could be achieved. For this reason, the conflict between Israel and Palestine must be approached under the logic of asymmetric warfare Mack (1975), Lele (2014), Cohen & Bitton (2015) and Gallo & Marzano (2009); where Israel is conceived as the dominating nation through