DEGREE PROJECT IN TECHNOLOGY, FIRST CYCLE, 15 CREDITS STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2020 Investigation of the siting process of Swedish nuclear power plants using GIS EGIL MORAST DANIEL WOLLBERG KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT Abstract In order to find the optimal placement for a nuclear power plant (NPP) many different factors have to be taken into consideration. Choosing the wrong location could result in higher construction costs and/or taking avoidable risks. GIS can be used to compare different spatial criteria efficiently. There are currently six nuclear reactors operating in Sweden, producing approximately 40% of the total electricity produced in the country every year. These reactors are divided over three nuclear power plants: Ringhals, Forsmark and Oskarshamn. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the suitability of existing NPPs location in Sweden according to the current standards and guidelines and find good potential sites for a new hypothetical NPP in Sweden. The thesis is limited to investigate the geographical aspects of siting an NPP, and therefore economic decisions and law restrictions will have less impact on the end result. The methodology of the thesis is in line with International Atomic Energy Agency’s step by step siting procedure that includes a site survey in which candidate areas are derived using a set of ​ ​ ​ ​ exclusionary and avoidance criteria. This is followed by the comparison and ranking of these sites by implementing a suitability analysis in the site selection process to derive potential sites. The site ​ ​ ​ ​ survey process result in a map layer containing the candidate areas that fulfills the spectre of exclusionary and avoidance criteria set by the analyst. The site selection process includes weighting criteria compared to each other using the analytic hierarchy process which is based on the perceived ​ ​ importance of each criterion. The criteria are found in an initial study of available literature. Based on the gathered information, data is collected to execute the analysis in ArcMap. Both vector operations and raster calculations are made to produce the end result map layers. The analysis shows that Forsmark is the most suitable location for an NPP among the existing sites. Neither of the existing sites is considered a candidate site, but that depends heavily on how strict the avoidance criteria is set. Three candidate areas were chosen to be further investigated; Sjötorp, Mariefred and Vanneberga. Between these three Sjötorp was determined to be the most suitable location to site an NPP. One conclusion that can be drawn is that more knowledge in the nuclear power industry and more insight in the weighting part would probably lead to more accurate results. It is hard to know how accurate the model is but it could definitely be used and modified for further studies, either with the same goal in mind or with a different goal and modified criteria. 1 Sammanfattning För att hitta det optimala området för ett kärnkraftverk måste man ta hänsyn till flera kriterier. Fel val av område kan resultera i extra konstruktionskostnader och/eller onödiga säkerhetsrisker. GIS kan användas för att jämföra geografiska kriterier på ett effektivt sätt. Idag finns det sex stycken reaktorer i bruk i Sverige. Dessa producerar ungefär 40% av landets el. Reaktorerna är fördelade på tre stycken anläggningar: Ringhals, Forsmark och Oskarshamn. Syftet med detta arbete är att utvärdera lämpligheten av placeringen av de existerande kärnkraftverken i Sverige i enlighet med nutida standarder och riktlinjer och att hitta bra potentiella områden för ett nytt hypotetiskt kärnkraftverk i Sverige. Arbetet är begränsat till att undersöka de geografiska aspekterna av nyförläggningsprocessen och därmed har ekonomiska beslut och lagrestriktioner mindre påverkan på slutresultatet. Metodiken för arbetet är i linje med IAEAs steg för steg nyförläggningsprocedur som inkluderar en site survey där candidate areas tas fram genom att använda en rad med kriterier för områden som ​ ​ ​ antingen ska exkluderas eller undvikas. Dessa områden jämförs och rankas sedan genom att implementera en suitability analysis i site selection processen för att framhäva potentiella områden. ​ ​ ​ ​ Site survey processen resulterar i ett kartlager med de kandidatområdena som uppfyller spektrumet av kriterier som analytikern har bestämt antingen ska exkluderas eller undvikas. Site selection processen inkluderar att vikta kriterier i förhållande till varandra med hjälp av den så kallade analytic hierarchy ​ process som baseras på den uppfattade vikten av varje kriterium. Kriterierna formuleras efter en initial ​ litteraturstudie. Baserat på den samlade informationen hämtas data för att kunna utföra analysen i ArcMap. Både vektoroperationer och rasterberäkningar utförs för att producera de kartlager som sedan återfinns i slutresultatet. Analysen visar att Forsmark är den bäst lämpade platsen för ett kärnkraftverk utav de områdena där existerande kärnkraft är placerade. Inget av de existerande områdena anses vara ett kandidatområde, men det beror till stor del på hur strikt de kriterier som ska undvikas är satta. Tre kandidatområden valdes för vidare undersökning; Sjötorp, Mariefred och Vanneberga. Av dessa tre ansågs Sjötorp vara det bäst lämpade området för ett kärnkraftverk. En slutsats som kan dras är att djupare kunskap inom kärnkraftsindustrin och mer insikt i viktningen skulle leda till mer exakt resultat. Det är svårt att veta hur exakt modellen är men den skulle definitivt kunna modifieras och användas för framtida studier, antingen med samma slutmål eller med ett annat mål och modifierade kriterier. 2 Acknowledgements We wish to thank our supervisor and examiner Dr. Takeshi Shirabe for his help and feedback throughout the project. We would also like to offer our special thanks to Dr. Carl Berglöf and Dag Djursing for the valuable input and genuine insight in the nuclear subject they have given us during the time period of writing this thesis. 3 Terms and Abbreviations AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process BWR - Boiling Water Reactor GIS - Geographical Information System IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency NPP - Nuclear Power plant PWR - Pressurized Water Reactor SMR - Small Modular Reactor 4 Table of content Acknowledgements 3 Terms and Abbreviations 4 1. Introduction 7 1.1 Background 7 1.2 Research objectives 9 1.3 Limitations 9 2. Literature overview 10 2.1 GIS and Suitability analysis 10 2.2 Weighting method 10 2.3 Siting an NPP 11 2.4 Criteria for siting 12 2.4.1 Cooling water 12 2.4.2 Natural hazards 13 2.4.3 Power grid 13 2.4.4 Safety and emergency planning 13 2.5 Related work 14 3. Study area and data description 15 3.1 Study area 15 3.2 Data description 16 4. Methodology 18 4.1 Site survey 18 4.2 Site Selection 24 5. Results 31 5.1 Candidate Areas 31 5.2 Potential Sites 35 6. Discussion and Conclusion 38 7. Further studies 39 7.1 Fourth generation nuclear power 39 7.2 Small modular reactors 40 7.3 Cooling towers 40 References 41 5 Table of figures Figure 1. Existing Nuclear Power Plants in Sweden. 7 Table 1. The Swedish nuclear power reactors type and output effect. 9 Table 2. Saaty’s fundamental scale. 11 Table 3. The different land cover available in the land cover layer. 16 Figure 2. Land cover visualized in vector format to the left and raster format to the right. 17 Figure 3. The mosaic layers combined into an elevation map. 17 Figure 4. The site survey process presented as a flow chart. 19 Figure 5. Map showing the buffer zones around airports and military facilities and all the nature reserves. 20 Figure 6. Map showing where there are sufficient amount of available cooling water for an NPP to operate. 21 Figure 7. All the buffer zones surrounding the towns. 22 Figure 8. Power lines in Sweden and the calculated buffer zone. 23 Figure 9. Railroads in Sweden and the calculated buffer zone. 23 Figure 10. Criteria coverage showing areas that fulfill the exclusionary criteria and/or the avoidance criteria. 24 Figure 11. The site selection process presented as a flow chart. 25 Figure 12. The top left figure shows the significant buildings and antiquities, the figure on the right shows the extent of important roads and railroad and the bottom figure shows the vector polygons used in the suitability analysis, nature reserves and populated area. 26 Figure 13. Euclidean distance map to the left and slope map to the right. 27 Table 5. Breaking points for the different attribute layers in the different areas. The highest value for the same layer is bolded. 27 Figure 14. Reclassified euclidean distance map to the left and reclassified slope map to the right. 29 Table 6. Example of a comparison matrix. 29 Table 7. The three different weightings. 30 Figure 15. A closer look at the three candidate areas of interest, displayed in red. 31 ​ Figure 16. A map showing the most important criteria when analyzing the existing NPP in Forsmark. 32 Figure 17. A map showing the most important criteria when analyzing the existing NPP in Oskarshamn. 33 Figure 18. A map showing the most important criteria when analyzing the existing NPP in Forsmark. 34 Figure 19. The result of weighting 1. 35 Figure 20. The result of weighting 2. 36 Figure 21. The result of weighting 3. 37 6 1. Introduction 1.1 Background There are currently six nuclear reactors operating in Sweden producing approximately 40% of the total electricity produced in the country every year. These reactors are divided over three nuclear power plants (NPPs): Ringhals, Forsmark and Oskarshamn, seen in Figure 1. Nuclear power is and have always been a controversial topic in Sweden and the public opinion about the subject have changed constantly during the last half century. Figure 1. Existing Nuclear Power Plants in Sweden. In 1978 the government led by Thorbjörn Fälldin had to resign because of a dispute regarding the future of nuclear power in Sweden (Normark, 2014).