REIMAGININGR I A I I G U.S.S STRATEGYT A E Y IIN THET E MMIDDLED L EEASTS Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA958-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0662-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover composite design: Jessica Arana Image: wael alreweie / Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface U.S. policy in the Middle East across successive administrations on balance has not produced positive results for American interests or for the region. Despite aspirations across the political spectrum to pivot away from the Middle East after decades of costly interventions, challenges emanating from a region mired in instability will continue to affect U.S. interests. The question, however, is whether maintaining long-standing U.S. policies—which are heavily reliant on threat-based paradigms and military instru- ments of power—will produce better outcomes in the future. Or is it time to rethink some of the fundamental premises underlying U.S. policymaking in this region? This report assesses the advantages and trade-offs of an alternative regional strat- egy in which strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that priori- tizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater growth and development. We consider how a U.S. strategy in the Middle East might look if the approach shifted from an emphasis on what we call threatism—focusing on the threat of the day, and particularly the Iranian threat—to a positive vision of a region supported by increased diplomatic and economic investments, one in which the sources of extremism and interstate competition are reduced to manageable levels. Reimagining U.S. strategy in the Middle East with a positive, but not idealized, vision of outcomes (rather than focusing on only the threats we are trying to contain) could lead to a new set of policy options for future decisionmakers to consider. This research analyzes how key instruments of U.S. policy—political, security, economic, diplomatic, and informational—would need to adjust to more effectively addresses current regional challenges in ways that are mindful of limited resources at home. Given pandemics, climate change, and disruption in oil markets—combined with the region’s multiple conflicts and governance failures—U.S. strategy can no longer afford to focus on the state and leadership level while neglecting societal ills and the region’s people. Nor can the United States pursue its regional interests alone. Our strategic reassessment of U.S. policies in the Middle East takes these consider- ations seriously, leading to a critical examination of how we deal with both partners and adversaries, both in and outside the region, and the policy tools we might better leverage to advance our strategic goals to the benefit of both the United States and the region. iii iv Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East: Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments Funding Funding for this project was provided by a generous gift from the Broad Reach Foundation. About the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy This research was conducted within the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, a center within International Programs at the RAND Corporation. The center brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise from across RAND to address the most critical political, social, and economic challenges facing the Middle East today. For more information about the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, visit www.rand.org/international/cmepp or contact the director (contact information is pro- vided on the webpage). Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures .................................................................................................vii Tables .................................................................................................. ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi Acknowledgments .................................................................................. xix Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Why a Rethink? ........................................................................................ 1 U.S. Interests and Strategic Goals in a Changing Regional and Global Environment ........ 8 A Road Map for Building An Alternative Regional Strategy: Organization of the Report .............................................................................................11 CHAPTER TWO Toward Aligning Partnerships with U.S. Interests ............................................13 The Rationale for Partnerships ......................................................................14 Partnership Challenges and Mitigation Measures ................................................16 Past Experience Prioritizing Among Partners ......................................................18 Themes of U.S. Partnerships in the Middle East ..................................................21 Current Prioritization of Partners .................................................................. 23 Risks of Current Prioritization ......................................................................31 Neglected Opportunities ............................................................................ 38 Toward a New Framework for Middle East Partnerships ........................................41 CHAPTER THREE Managing Adversaries ..............................................................................47 Dealing with Iran .................................................................................... 48 Addressing Shi‘a Militias ............................................................................ 60 Syria: Mitigating the Damage .......................................................................65 v vi Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East: Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments The Sunni Extremist Threat .........................................................................69 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 77 CHAPTER FOUR Global Competitors in the Middle East .........................................................81 Chinese and Russian Interests in the Middle East ................................................81 Chinese and Russian Actions in the Middle East ................................................ 84 China and Russia in a Reimagined U.S. Middle East Policy ....................................95 Conclusion: Great Powers as an Adjunct to U.S. Policy ........................................ 101 CHAPTER FIVE Recalibrating Policy Tools ....................................................................... 103 U.S. Policy Tools .................................................................................... 103 The Case for Rebalance ............................................................................ 109 Current Apportionment of U.S. Assistance ...................................................... 113 Security Cooperation ............................................................................... 114 Force Posture ........................................................................................ 116 Changing the Balance from Military to Nonmilitary Tools: A Paradigm Shift ............. 117 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 120 CHAPTER SIX Conclusion .......................................................................................... 123 The Case for a Policy Reset ........................................................................ 123 Strategic Adjustments Required by a New Strategy............................................. 125 Key Findings ......................................................................................... 126 Policy Recommendations .........................................................................