Foreword by Sir Tim bernerS-Lee Ten Frontier Technologies for international development Ben Ramalingam, Kevin Hernandez, Pedro Prieto Martin and Becky Faith India, Rajasthan Kamla, age 33, is rajasthan’s first female solar engineer. Starting her education at age 11 in night school, while carrying on with her domestic and farm work, she went on to study solar technology and now runs a rural field station fabricating solar home lighting systems and solar lanterns. despite her humble background she has travelled to delhi to speak at national Conferences on solar technology. Here, Kamla works on solar batteries connected to roof panels. Credit robert wallis – Panos 2 bACK To ConTenTS Ten Frontier Technologies for international development Ben Ramalingam, Kevin Hernandez, Pedro Prieto Martin and Becky Faith November 2016 Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This report greatly benefited from the support and guidance of the steering group, consisting of Steven Hunt, Tamara Giltsoff, Annette D’Oyly, Magdalena Banasiak and Marco Pittalis. Thanks are also due to all of the above for comments and feedback on early drafts of this report. Detailed peer review feedback and comments were gratefully received from John Bessant and Steven Hunt (overall report), Charlie Paton (solar desalination), Daniel Ronen and Anum Ahmed (UAVs), Chris Daniels (airships), Eric Kasper, David Howey and Christopher Baker-Brian (household-scale batteries), Maxime Bayen (collaborative economy), Matt Houlihan and John Garritty (internet of things), Field Ready (3D printing), Lars Otto Naess (smog-reducing technologies) and Nigel Snoad (alternative internet delivery). Numerous DFID staff and experts were consulted during the course of writing this report, and participated in the June 2016 workshop in DFID Whitehall. Without their active engagement, ideas, insights and suggestions this report would not have been possible. Thanks are also due to Steven Newport of IMC International for managing the process, James Middleton for extensive and eXcellent editorial work on the report and technology reviews, to Dave Bridges, Jane Austin and the team at Fruit Design for their outstanding and tireless design work and Alison Norwood, Carol Smithyes, Gary Edwards and the IDS communications team for support and advice throughout the design and publication process. Last but not least, our gratitude is due to Sir Tim Berners-Lee for his foreword, and to Anne Jellema and Dillon Mann at the Web Foundation for their help and support with the process. This report was made possible with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited. Resources were also provided as part of the Digital theme of the IDS programme on Strengthening Evidence-based Policy, which works across seven key themes. Each theme works with partner institutions to co-construct policy-relevant knowledge and engage in policy-influencing processes. The programme is funded by UK aid from the UK Government. The views expressed in the report are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent DFID’s own views or policies, or those of Evidence on Demand, or of IDS. This material has been funded by UK aid from the UK government; however, the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies. 4 Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development Foreword Foreword by Sir Tim Berners-Lee When I designed the World Wide Web, I built it as an open platform to foster collaboration and innovation. The Web evolved into a powerful and ubiquitous platform because I was able to build it on a free and open network and because hard- wired into it was the power of any user to become a creator, not just a consumer. Since then, the internet has become the central infrastructure of our time – every sector of our economy and democracy depends on it. Few would have been able to imagine this even 20 years ago. And the role of the internet in promoting development has been highlighted by the World Bank as a critical enabler, working to reduce transaction costs, improve efficiency and democratise access to services. But it can only do all of these things if accompanied by the political will to ensure that all benefit equally from the potential of technology. This report impressively spells out a number of emerging technologies that could well carry the seeds of transformative changes of tomorrow. Some, like the internet of things and the collaborative economy, are platforms that build on existing technologies. Others, like 3D printers and unmanned aerial vehicles, offer whole new networks and new possibilities for future development progress. The report’s authors are very clear that the potential and limitations of these technologies are fundamentally dependent on choices that we make, today and in the future – choices about keeping platforms open and inter- operable, choices about hardwiring users’ rights and freedoms into our technologies, and choices about systematic efforts to overcome the new patterns of eXclusion that new technologies inevitably create. Without due care and attention, these new technologies will become uneven playing fields, with a select few winners and many more losers. We learn in the pages ahead that to ensure these eXciting technologies realise their potential to contribute to economic growth and social progress, people in developing countries will need sustained and thoughtful engagement. Along with patient investment in novel approaches, there will need to be adaptive and intelligent approaches to anticipate and head off risks and protect users’ rights, as well as creative ideas for building these technologies on open standards and applying them in ways that meet the needs of those in developing countries. I urge all leaders – be they politicians, development policymakers, or technologists and innovators – to heed this timely call, and to come together to realise the greater promise of open and inclusive technology in creating a more sustainable and fairer world for future generations. Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web and founding director of the World Wide Web Foundation and World Wide Web Consortium. neXT PAGe 5 Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development Contents Contents Please click arrows to navigate to page number Acknowledgements 4 Foreword by Sir Tim berners-Lee 5 executive summary 8 introduction and overview 14 what are frontier technologies? 16 why are frontier technologies important for international development? 18 The ten frontier technologies examined in the research 19 Ten key themes from the technology reviews 20 recommendations for development organisations 29 Technology reviews table of contents 37 Part 1: MAnuFACtuRIng And ConsuMPtIon 38 3d printing for development 40 Collaborative economy tools 48 Part 2: ConneCtIvIty 56 Alternative internet delivery 58 internet of things 64 Part 3: tRAnsPoRtAtIon And logIstICs 72 Unmanned aerial vehicles/drones 74 Airships 79 Part 4: FResH WAteR 88 Solar desalination 90 Atmospheric water condensers 97 Part 5: CleAn EneRgy And AIR 102 Household-scale batteries 104 Smog-reducing technologies 111 6 Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development Contents Contents Tables Table 1 The ten frontier technologies examined in the research 19 Table 2 Six different pathways for diffusion of technologies 22 Figures Figure 1 The diffusion of selected technologies across US households 22 Figure 2 Changes in projections of the internet of things over time 25 Figure 3 The impacts of frontier technologies 26 Figure 4 recommendations for development organisations 29 Figure 5 Global distribution of 3d printers in the 3d Hubs network (2015) 43 Figure 6 Collaborative economy honeycomb 50 Figure 7 world’s offline population, 2016 58 Figure 8 range of devices connected to the internet of things 64 Figure 9 Landing sites for conventional airships (Aeroscraft) and hybrid airships 80 Figure 10 Positioning of airships 83 Figure 11 installed water desalination capacity 91 Figure 12 warka water tower 99 Figure 13 Lithium-ion battery pack prices: historical and forecast 106 Figure 14 Solar product energy ladder 107 Boxes box 1 Five areas of frontier technologies looked at in this report 16 box 2 Types of solar desalination 92 box 3 dFid-funded research research on solar electric cooking 105 Acronyms 3d Three dimensional PV Photovoltaic 3dP 3d printing rSA royal Society for the encouragement of 3dP4d 3dP for development Arts, manufactures and Commerce Am Additive manufacturing SmS Special messaging service dFid department for international development UAV Unmanned aerial vehicle HP Hewlett-Packard UK United Kingdom iCT information and communications technology Un United nations ioT internet of things US United States iot4d ioT for development UV Ultraviolet LTA Lighter than air weF word economic Forum nGo non-governmental organisation wHo world Health organization P2P Peer to peer 7 Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development Executive summary Executive summary As new technologies and digital business models been developed into viable market solutions, or reshape economies and disrupt incumbencies, where opportunities have not yet been taken up in