Inside Terrorism Inside Terrorism REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION Bruce Hoffman Columbia University Press New York Columbia University Press Publishers Since 893 New York, Chichester, West Sussex Copyright © 2006 Bruce Hoffman All rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hoffman, Bruce, 954– Inside terrorism / Bruce Hoffman—Rev. and expanded ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0–23–2698–0 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 0–23–2699–9 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN 0–23–5046–2 (electronic) . Terrorism. I. Title. HV643.H626 2006 363.325—dc22 200503384 Columbia University Press books are printed on permanent and durable acid-free paper Printed in the United States of America Designed by Audrey Smith c 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 p 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 References to Internet Web Sites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the author nor Columbia University Press is responsible for Web sites that may have expired or changed since the book was prepared For my parents Contents Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition ix Preface to the First Edition xv . Defining Terrorism 2. The End of Empire and the Origins of Contemporary Terrorism 43 3. The Internationalization of Terrorism 63 4. Religion and Terrorism 8 5. Suicide Terrorism 3 6. The Old Media, Terrorism, and Public Opinion 73 7. The New Media, Terrorism, and the Shaping of Global Opinion 97 8. The Modern Terrorist Mind-set: Tactics, Targets, Tradecraft, and Technologies 229 9. Terrorism Today and Tomorrow 257 Notes 297 Bibliography 369 Index 45 photographs appear as a group after page 80 Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition his sequel to Inside Terrorism was written between March and July 2005. My original intention was simply to update and refresh aT work that had retained both its relevance and its acuity despite having first been published in 998. Once I became engrossed in these revi- sions, however, it soon became clear to me that a more extensive treatment of the trends and developments in terrorism that had unfolded since Sep- tember , 200, was needed. Before I knew it, my initially modest inten- tions had produced some seventy thousand new words—an amount nearly equal to the first edition’s total word length. That I was able to write so quickly and effortlessly is perhaps a reflection of the solid analytical foundation that the first edition of Inside Terrorism provided. Readers will recall its central theme that the nature and charac- ter of terrorism was changing because new adversaries with very differ- ent rationales and motivations had emerged to challenge the conventional wisdom on terrorists and terrorism. We were therefore at the dawn of a new era of terrorist violence, the first edition had concluded, even bloodier and more destructive than before. The attacks on 9/ clearly validated that conclusion. Indeed, on that day long-standing suppositions that terrorists were more interested in publicity than in killing and that terrorists who jus- tified violence with theological imperatives were no more bloody-minded than their secular counterparts were swept aside in a deafening crescendo of death and destruction. Since then, the connection between terrorism motivated by religion and higher levels of lethality has been demonstrated repeatedly by the succession of suicide terrorist attacks that have occurred in places as diverse as Israel and Indonesia and Moscow and Mombasa. A new chapter of this expanded work accordingly analyzes this phenomenon in detail, assessing the reasons for suicide terrorism’s increased popularity as x Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition a terrorist strategy and tactic and exploring the means and policies required to counter it. The other completely new chapter in the book focuses on terrorist use of the Internet and other contemporary, cutting-edge communications tech- nologies. It describes how terrorists are now able to bypass traditional print and broadcast media via the Internet, through inexpensive but profession- ally produced and edited videotapes, and even with their own dedicated 24/7 television and radio news stations. The consequences of these develop- ments, the chapter argues, are as far-reaching as they are still poorly under- stood, having already transformed the ability of terrorists to communicate without censorship or other hindrance and thereby attract new sources of recruits, funding, and support that governments have found difficult, if not impossible, to counter. New material, in fact, can be found in every chapter of the book, ranging from a discussion of the lethally indiscriminate bombing campaign mounted by Irish terrorists on the London Underground more than a century ago to the likely repercussions of the ongoing Iraqi insurgency on future terrorist targeting and tactics. Particular attention in the new edition has been paid to such critical issues as the differences and similarities between terror- ists and insurgents; the growing threat of terrorist use of chemical, biologi- cal, radiological, and nuclear weapons; and the likely future trajectory of al Qaeda—including a detailed assessment of the reasons for its continued resilience, resonance, and longevity. It is no coincidence that I should have begun thinking about and then writing a new edition of Inside Terrorism, for I have recently returned (albeit part-time) to teaching both undergraduates and graduate students. I should therefore like to thank all the students whom I have had the privilege to teach over the past three years at three unique and world-class institutions devoted either to the study of terrorism specifically or to defense and secu- rity studies in general. The Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, New York, helps ensure that new generations of U.S. Army officers are well schooled in the theory and practice of terrorism and counterterror- ism and insurgency and counterinsurgency. I am continually humbled and honored by the opportunity to teach and also learn from these outstanding young men and women who often within months of our class literally are in the front lines of the war on terrorism, commanding troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, among other places. No less important to the intellectual vitality that I hope informs this book are the graduate students I have had the pleasure of teaching in the Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition xi Security Studies Program (SSP) at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. The diversity of their views, backgrounds, and professional experi- ences has appreciably enriched my understanding of, and knowledge about, terrorism. The research assistance provided by one of those students, Mr. Weimeng Yeo, was immensely helpful to me in completing this work. No less critical were the translations of original Japanese-language sources con- cerning Aum Shinrikyo and the 995 nerve gas attack on the Tokyo subway provided by another SSP student, Ms. Mayuka Yamazaki. Finally, I am indebted to Ambassador Barry Desker, director of the Insti- tute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and to Professor Rohan Gunaratna, of that institute’s Interna- tional Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, for providing me with an extraordinarily convivial setting in which both to finish this book and to teach part of a novel course on counterterrorism and counter- insurgency. The students in that class, hailing from at least a dozen differ- ent countries, opened my eyes to a range of issues and concerns specific to Asian security and stability. Perhaps my greatest debt, however, is to James A. Thomson and Michael D. Rich, respectively president and CEO and executive vice president of the RAND Corporation. Just a week before the August 998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, they offered me the opportu- nity to return to RAND. The timing could not have been better or more prescient. RAND, an independent, objective, nonpartisan research insti- tution, and especially its Washington, D.C. office, have provided an ideal base from which both to study terrorism and to observe the formulation and implementation of counterterrorism policy. Both Jim and Michael were enthusiastic supporters of both the first edition of Inside Terrorism and the revisions and expansion undertaken in this work. Two other RAND colleagues, Ambassador David Aaron and Brent Brad- ley, not only supported this effort but arranged for the corporate funds that enabled me to take some time away from my other research and manage- rial responsibilities to complete this work. I would be remiss not to cite the help, advice, and guidance variously provided by other valued colleagues and friends at RAND, including Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara Daly, David Egner, Anna-Britt Kasupski, John Parachini, Hilary Peck, Jim Quinlivan, Bill Rosenau, Shirley Ruhe, Karen Treverton, and Mike Wermuth. Suzanne Jones provided critical support as my executive administrative assistant and helped me to carve out the time to concentrate on this effort. That I could do so while still fulfilling my managerial responsibilities as director of the RAND Washington, D.C., office, was made possible by the other members xii Preface to the Revised and Expanded Edition of the office management team—Casey Kane, Kathy Mills, Kathi Webb, David Johnson, and Tammy Pritt—to whom I am also grateful. Friends and colleagues outside RAND were no less instrumental in the help that they provided to facilitate the completion of this new edition. Foremost among them are current or former police officers like David Brannan, Lindsay Clutterbuck, Roger Kelly, Bob Mathiessen, Keith Weston, and Mark Tuley. Their insights, and especially their friendship, have made more of a difference to me than they know. Equally critical have been some of my closest friends and most valued colleagues in academe, government, and private security, including Peter Bergen, Daniel Byman, Martha Cren- shaw, Joe Felter, Eric Herren, Russ Howard, Cindi Jebb, Rob Litwak, Michael Meese, Kip McCormick, Ami Pedahzur, Dennis Pluchinsky, Magnus Rans- torp, Fernando Reinares, Reid Sawyer, Michael Scheuer, Michael Smith, Anders Strindberg, and David Veness.