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London Patient Choice Project Evaluation A model of patients’ choices of hospital from stated and revealed preference choice data Peter Burge, RAND Europe Nancy Devlin, City University and The King’s Fund John Appleby, The King’s Fund and City University Charlene Rohr, RAND Europe Jonathan Grant, RAND Europe Prepared for the London Patient Choice Project Team, Department of Health. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the London Patient Choice Project Team, Department of Health. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. The King’s Fund is an independent charitable foundation working for better health, especially in London. The Fund carries out research, policy analysis and development activities, working on its own, in partnerships, and through grants. City University, London, is “the University for the business and the professions”. City offers postgraduate programmes in economic evaluation and health economics. The City Health Economics Centre aims to provide innovative and policy relevant health economics research. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation, the King's Fund, and City University All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the copyright holders. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 Newtonweg 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands Westbrook Centre, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1YG, United Kingdom Uhlandstraße 14, 10623 Berlin, Germany RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ RAND Europe URL: http://www.rand.org/randeurope To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] RAND Europe, King’s Fund & City University Preface This report has been prepared for and funded by the London Patient Choice Project (LPCP), and presents the findings of an evaluation study examining various aspects of the choice project. This report covers the choice process and the trade-offs patients are willing to make in order to obtain earlier treatment. The main objective is to provide an understanding of the factors patients take into account in choosing between hospitals and, in particular, quantifies the trade offs they state they are willing to make between factors. The approach adopted by the research team uses a disaggregate discrete choice framework with both stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) choice data and provides insights into how patients value various aspects of their current choices and how they may value choices which are currently outside of the scope of the current LPCP. It has been produced jointly by a team from RAND Europe, the King’s Fund and City University. The research project commenced in January 2003. A stated preference questionnaire was designed and administered by post as part of the “before choice” attitudes survey. This survey was sent to patients, across a range of specialities, who were eligible for choice and had been on a waiting list for three months. Following patients’ actual choice of hospital, data were collected on how patients behaved in real-world situations. These two data sets have been analysed both separately and in combination in order to formulate a joint model of hospital choice using a logit model structure. From this model, estimates of patients’ valuations of the various aspects of hospital choice can be obtained. This report will be primarily of interest to policy makers in the Department of Health and health care providers. Specifically, this will include health service managers, clinicians and health service researchers, as well as those interested in the application of discrete choice modelling. It provides insights into the relative value different groups of patients place on particular characteristics of hospitals (waiting times, ‘reputation’, distance from patient’s home etc).. In addition, our modelling results inform policy makers of the potential benefits of different ways of structuring and informing patients’ choices, allowing a far greater customisation according to the patient, and hence increasing efficiency in the system as a whole. This report is part of a wider evaluation study of the London Patient Choice Project. The strands of the evaluation are: ii RAND Europe, King’s Fund & City University Patient Attitudes - Picker Institute Europe Patient Choice Modelling - RAND Europe, King’s Fund and City University Management and Implementation - Royal Holloway University of London System-wide Impacts - University of York RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that serves the public interest by improving policymaking and informing public debate. Our clients are European governments, institutions, and firms with a need for rigorous, impartial, multidisciplinary analysis of the hardest problems they face. This report has been peer- reviewed in accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards (see http://www.rand.org/about/standards/) and therefore may be represented as a RAND Europe product. The King’s Fund is an independent charitable foundation working for better health, especially in London. The Fund carries out research, policy analysis and development activities, working on its own, in partnerships, and through grants. The King’s Fund offers a major resource to people working in health, providing leadership and education courses; seminars and workshops; publications; information and library services; and conference and meeting facilities. City University, London, is "The University for the business and the professions". City offers postgraduate programmes in economic evaluation and health economics. The City Health Economics Centre aims to provide innovative and policy relevant health economics research (http://www.city.ac.uk/economics/research/chec.htm) For more information about this evaluation study, please contact: Peter Burge John Appleby Nancy Devlin RAND Europe The King's Fund City Health Economics Centre Westbrook Centre 11-13 Cavendish Square Northampton Square Milton Road London London Cambridge W1G 0AN EC1V 0HB CB4 1YG +44 (0)1223 353329 +44 (0)20 7307 2400 +44 (0)20 7040 5060 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] iii RAND Europe, King’s Fund & City University Contents Preface.................................................................................................................................. ii List of Figures......................................................................................................................vii List of Tables......................................................................................................................viii Summary..............................................................................................................................ix Acknowledgments ...............................................................................................................xv CHAPTER 1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 2 Survey Design and Development ............................................................. 3 2.1 Literature review .......................................................................................................