Transcript A New America? US Politics and Global Leadership Ahead of the G7 Summit Jon Sopel North America Editor, BBC Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri Director, US and the Americas Programme, Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs, Chatham House Event date: 07 June 2021 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants, and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event, every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2021. 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T +44 (0)20 7957 5700 F +44 (0)20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Patron: Her Majesty The Queen Chair: Jim O’Neill Director: Dr Robin Niblett Charity Registration Number: 208223 2 A New America? US Politics and Global Leadership Ahead of the G7 Summit Dr Leslie Vinjamuri Welcome to everybody. I love seeing the blue logo because it just – especially now, when the sky is actually blue and it’s lovely in London after such a grim, grim several weeks of rain, it now seems – it seems like it really captures where we are. I’m so excited to have you here today with us, Jon Sopel of the BBC. You don’t need an introduction, let me just say briefly to all of you, I’m Leslie Vinjamuri. I direct the US and Americas Programme here at Chatham House. Jon and I, the origins of this, have been I think we spoke at the Defence Academy, at the Royal College of Defence Studies together, and it was so much fun that I decided that I needed to persuade Jon to come to Chatham House and speak about America. We’ve been watching you, Jon, for so many years cover the United States, and I guess you’ve been there as North America Editor for the BBC since 2014. You’ve covered 2016, which we thought was, you know, the election of – you know, that we’d never forget, and then we got to 2020 and it was the election that would never end. And I think I – as I was reading your book, which has come out just recently, if you haven’t seen it, I encourage you all to take a look, and I notice you said you’d written three books during the time that you’ve been in Washington, which, given how much time you spend informing us and the rest of the world about the United States, is quite something. And in addition to living through the Trump years, some of the Obama years, and through this election, you’ve also lived through COVID in Washington, D.C., so it’s quite extraordinary. You’re back now, of course, to cover the G7, to Biden’s trip to London and to Cornwall, and I know that you also have a very special interview coming up later today, so we won’t keep you too long, but we’re delighted to have you. And I think what we’re going to do is talk a little bit about all the things that you have, you know, so much granularity and so much real understanding of, and really to get your sense of America at home and America abroad. And maybe we can begin by starting with America at home, because I think our audiences, you know, pay a lot of attention. America sometimes – I always like to say sometimes it gets above the radar screen, certain issues, January the 6th clearly, the elections, the Republican Party, and the economy, and then sometimes there are a lot of things going on that people don’t quite notice over here until America’s, sort of, you know, putting itself on the global stage. But maybe we could start with, you know, you’ve just arrived back in London and it’s been, what, how many days are we, 150, 130-something? I have stopped counting after we hit 100. Jon Sopel Yeah, no, once you get to 100, I lose count. Dr Leslie Vinjamuri Yeah, after 100, we don’t count, but, you know, here we are, right? We’re several months out from the four years of Donald Trump’s leadership, and I guess the picture that we get seems to be very twofold. On the one hand, we hear, you know, America is on the move, we saw the jobs, the numbers in the jo – number of jobs created in May, well over 500 and – almost 550,000, unemployment coming down, still high, but coming down, a sense of, you know, the vaccine rollout being really quite extraordinary. And you get a sense of dynamism and foreign movement, lots of jobs available for young people, headline in I think it was The Wall Street Journal yesterday or one of the papers, but we still hear all the stories, right, about division, about the Republican Party, about the culture wars, about the demand for attention to race, and so it’s – sometimes, I think, sitting here in London, it’s a little bit hard to know which of those stories is true. So maybe, you know, I can start you out and say, you know, how different is it? You’re in 3 A New America? US Politics and Global Leadership Ahead of the G7 Summit Washington, you’ve clearly travelled America, but how different is it, several months out? Is America – you know, is it back, is it moving forward, is it pretty much a good news story? Jon Sopel Well, Leslie, first of all, thank you so much for inviting me to be in such august company. I’m not in the least bit intimidated to be talking to Chatham House, much, and thank you for such a warm welcome. Yeah, I’m in London now, I’m about to interview, straight after this, the National Security Advisor to the President, so that should be interesting, and it’s the only interview he’s doing, so that’s good for the BBC, which it hasn’t been a great couple of weeks for the BBC, and [laughs] so I’m, kind of, doing all of that. America today, in some ways, feels entirely different. It’s like a different continent. You know, there are no longer Twitter storms, there are no longer, kind of, wild rallies and all the rest of it, that we had on a daily basis with Donald Trump. Joe Biden is very consciously trying to lower the temperature, Jen Psaki’s press briefings, one of which will take place in an hour ti – an hour’s time, are no longer covered by any of the networks live. And I, kind of, always have a suspicion in my mind that in the administration now, they think of that as a success. Let people get on with their lives and make politics the background music to their lives, and it wasn’t that during the four years of Donald Trump, where he wanted attention, he wanted to be the centre of every conversation. It was noisy, it was like a drumkit being kicked over every day, and Joe Biden, it’s just a little bit calmer. I remember Paddy Ashdown, when he was the, sort of, Representative to deal with the post, kind of, conflict situation in Bosnia, describing the situation there as like a lemonade bottle with the lid tightly screwed on, and when you look at that lemonade bottle, it looks entirely normal, but if you were to unscrew the top, it would go everywhere. And I sort of feel that is not a bad metaphor for America today, because there are still millions, maybe declining a bit, who believe that Donald Trump was the true victor of that election, that it was stolen from him, that there was massive fraud, and they still feel angry. And the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, these, kind of, fringe groups that were key to the attempted insurrection on January the 6th, many of them have been arrested, but they haven’t all gone away. So, I, kind of, feel that what you describe, as jobs coming back, true, the greater demand in the economy, economic growth, all those things are true, and all the division is true, as well. And if I was to put it in a soundbite, Joe Biden had three goals when he took over, shots in people’s arms, holes in people – holes in the ground that show people are digging and there’s work going on in the economy, and money in people’s banks, and he’s, sort of, done those three things and that has helped, but, my word, is there a long way to go. Dr Leslie Vinjamuri So, there’s a long way to go, clearly, and I guess, you know, you’re in Washington and you’re also presumably back and forth between, you know, the White House and Congress.