PETER BERGEN, DAVID STERMAN, ALYSSA SIMS, AND ALBERT FORD ISIS IN THE WEST The Western Militant Flow to Syria and Iraq UPDATED MARCH 2016 About the Authors About New America Peter Bergen is a print, television and New America is committed to renewing American politics, web journalist, documentary producer prosperity, and purpose in the Digital Age. We generate big and the author or editor of seven books, ideas, bridge the gap between technology and policy, and three of which were New York Times curate broad public conversation. We combine the best of bestsellers and three of which were a policy research institute, technology laboratory, public named among the best non-fiction books of the year by forum, media platform, and a venture capital fund for The Washington Post. The books have been translated into ideas. We are a distinctive community of thinkers, writers, twenty languages. Documentaries based on his books researchers, technologists, and community activists who have been nominated for two Emmys and also won the believe deeply in the possibility of American renewal. Emmy for best documentary in 2013. Find out more at newamerica.org/our-story. Mr. Bergen is vice president of New America, and directs the organization’s International Security and Fellows programs. He is CNN’s national security analyst, a About the International Security Program Professor of Practice at Arizona State University and a fellow at Fordham University’s Center on National Security. The International Security Program aims to provide evidence-based analysis of some of the thorniest David Sterman is a senior program questions facing American policymakers and the public. associate at New America and holds a The program is largely focused on South Asia and the master’s degree from Georgetown’s Middle East, ISIS, al-Qaeda and allied groups, the rise Center for Security Studies. His work of political Islam, the proliferation of weapons of mass focuses on homegrown extremism and destruction (WMD), homeland security, and the activities the maintenance of New America’s datasets on terrorism of U.S. Special Forces and the CIA. The program is also inside the United States and the relative roles of NSA examining how warfare is changing because of emerging surveillance and traditional investigative tools in technologies, such as drones, cyber threats, and space- preventing such terrorism. based weaponry, and asking how the nature and global spread of these technologies is likely to change the very definition of what war is. Alyssa Sims is a research assistant with the International Security Program at New America. She worked with the program as Find out more at newamerica.org/international- an intern for six months. Prior to New security. America, Alyssa worked as a Strategic Research Analyst in the Office of the President at Arizona State University, her alma mater. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Courtney Schuster, who Albert Ford is a research assistant with co-authored the original version of this paper, Aleksander the International Security and Fellows Ferguson and Elena Zinski, who contributed extensive Programs at New America. His work research to the expansion of the database underlying this includes maintaining and expanding ISP’s paper’s findings, and Emily Schneider and Justin Lynch, International Security Data Site, editing who worked on the data for the original paper. and assisting with Foreign Policy’s South Asia Channel, and conducting research related to countries and issues in South Asia and the Middle East. Contents Executive Summary 2 Key Findings 3 Who Are the West’s Foreign Fighters? 7 Gender 7 Age 7 Active Online 8 Familial Ties with Other Jihadists 10 The American Profile 10 Death Rate 11 How Many Are at Large? 12 How Do They Reach Syria? 12 Who Are They Affiliated With? 12 What Threat Do They Pose to the United States? 13 The Severe Threat to Europe 19 Notes 23 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On Tuesday, March 22, 2016, three coordinated According to Belgian federal prosecutor Frédéric terrorist bombings killed 31 people and wounded van Leeuw, there are direct connections between around 300 more in Brussels, Belgium.1 Two Salah Abdeslam and two other Paris attackers brothers, Ibrahim el-Bakraoui, 29, and Khalid el- (Abdelhamid Abaaoud and Bilal Hadfi) and Bakraoui, 27, Najim Laachraoui, 25, and two other the el-Bakraoui brothers who undertook the individuals who remain at large were responsible Brussels attacks. Belgian authorities found Najim for the attacks.2 10 people were killed and roughly Laachraoui’s DNA in a Schaerbeek, Belgium home 100 were injured in two blasts—conducted by where remains of TATP explosives, commonly used Ibrahim el-Bakraoui, Najim Laachraoui, and one by ISIS and discovered in the vests used by the of the unknown individuals—near the departures Paris attackers, were recovered. The same home terminal at Brussels Airport. The third blast, also had fingerprints from Salah Abdeslam.5 The occurring an hour later at the Maelbeek subway links between the Paris attackers and the Brussels station in downtown Brussels and carried out by terrorists raises the importance of understanding Khalid el-Bakraoui, killed 20 people and injured who the Western “foreign fighters” who have left for around 130 more. The fifth individual was reportedly Syria are, how deep their networks run, and what an accomplice of el-Bakraoui at the subway station. threat they pose when they return to the West. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack via postings through their official account on Telegram In order to answer these questions, New America (a mobile-messaging platform) and official Twitter has examined 604 militants from 26 Western accounts.3 countries who have been reported by credible news sources as having left their home countries Only four days prior to the attacks, Belgian police to fight with ISIS or other Sunni jihadist groups in captured Salah Abdeslam, the only surviving Syria or Iraq. (In this updated version of the “ISIS attacker to have participated in the Nov. 13, 2015 in the West” report that New America released in Paris attacks that killed 130 people. Abdeslam told November 2015, we have added 130 more individuals Belgian authorities after his capture that he was to our dataset.)6 “ready to restart something from Brussels.”4 2 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY KEY FINDINGS • Western fighters in Syria and Iraq represent currently fighting in Syria or Iraq, through a new demographic profile, quite different marriage, or some other link to jihadists from from that of other Western militants who had prior conflicts or attacks. Of those with a fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s or Bosnia in familial link, over half have a relative fighting the 1990s. in Iraq or Syria, while almost one-third are connected through marriage, many of them new • Women are represented in marriages conducted after arriving in Syria. unprecedented numbers. One in seven of the individuals in New America’s dataset • The Americans drawn to the Syrian jihad—250 are women. Women were rarely if at all have tried or have succeeded in getting to represented among militants in previous Syria, according to official estimates—share jihadist conflicts. the same profile as the Western fighters overall: Women are well-represented, and the • They are young. The average age for volunteers are young, they are active online, individuals in New America’s dataset is 25. and many have family ties to jihad. More than For female recruits, the average age is 22. one in seven of the Americans who traveled, Almost one-fifth of New America’s sample attempted to travel, or supported others’ are teenagers, of whom more than a third travel to Syria are women. The average age of are female. American militants is 25, with one-fifth still in their teens. Eight out of 10 of the Americans are • They are active online. Over a quarter of active in online jihadist circles. the Western militants in New America’s dataset were reported either to have • Only six American militants have returned been active in online jihadist circles or to from fighting or training with militant groups have radicalized via interaction online. in Syria and been taken into custody, while However, there continue to be cases of another American militant returned to the physical in-person recruitment. United States and then left for Syria again where he conducted a suicide attack in 2014. • Many have familial ties to jihadism. One- third of the Western militants have a familial • This makes a total of seven American connection to jihad, whether through relatives “returnees” to the States who have trained INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ISIS in the West: The Western Militant Flow to Syria and Iraq 3 Figure 1 | Demographics of Western Fighters 25 Average age of male Western militants in Syria and Iraq 1 in 7 Western militants in Syria and Iraq are women 22 14+86+W Average age of female Western militants in Syria and Iraq Figure 2 | How Are Western Fighters Reaching Syria? 42.2% Via Turkey (255 of 604) Turkey 0.2% Syria Via Lebanon (1 of 604) Lebanon Iraq 57.6% Unknown (348 of 604) 4 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY with militant groups in Syria. The numbers of • The United States should be aware of the returnees to European countries are orders of threat posed by Western returnees from Iraq magnitude greater. and Syria - many of whom come from Western countries that are part of the United States’ • Around two-fifths of Western militants in New visa waiver program and therefore can enter America’s dataset have died in Syria or Iraq. the States without a visa. These militants Almost half of the male foreign fighters and 7 can also pose a threat to American targets in percent of female militants have been killed.