BehaviorScan The Next Generation Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Agenda Why Test New Products & What Options are Available? Why Test TV Advertising & What Options are Available BehaviorScan: How it Works & What You Get New Multi-Outlet Panel Data Improved Panel ANCOVA Model Appendices Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Why Test New Products? Why Should you Test New Products? f Many new products launches are failing, costing $millions f Increase the odds of success by testing f The biggest opportunities have the biggest risks f Accurately evaluate innovative ideas – without betting the company on them f Bscan is more accurate than STMs and less costly than Roll N’ Reads Test the NEW: New brand, major line extension/restage, new usage and benefits, 3rd entry or later Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 3 Why Test New Products? Most New Products Are Bunts, Not Homeruns % of Total New Brands Introduced in CPG Food & Beverage Categories by Year One Dollar Sales (F/D/M) 1997-2002 2003 2004 79% 76%78% 8% 8% 8% 9% 4% 4% 7% 7% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <$7.5MM $7.5- $10MM $10- $20MM $20- $50MM $50- $100MM $100MM+ Source: New food & beverage Pacesetter brand sales based on 52 weeks of dollar sales after achieving 30% ACV distribution between February 2003 and January 2004 InfoScan® Reviews Advantage, Food/Supermarkets, Drugstores & Mass Merchandisers, excluding Wal-Mart data for 2002-04 Pacesetters; 1997 – 2001 based on FDM including Wal-Mart store data. 2004 = 851 total new brands; 2003 = 749 total new brands; 1997 – 2002 = 3,567 total new brands Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 4 Why Test New Products? And New Products Are Expensive f Average launch-only costs: $25 million (range: $5 million - $100 million) f Trade f Retail slotting fees: $1-2 million per SKU f Off-invoice allowances, feature ad & display fees: 5-20% of sales f Sales force time & sell-in materials/sales kits f Consumer f Advertising: $5 - 75 million f Couponing: $5 - 10 million f Other: R&D, Market Research, etc Cost of a Typical Failure: $14,200,000 Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 5 Why Test New Products? Testing Significantly Reduces the Risk of Failure Of all new products Of new products tested in introduced nationally, BehaviorScan and introduced less than half succeed. nationally, over 84% succeed. Failure 52% Success Success 48% 38% Not 40% Rolled rolled Out out 60% Failure 2% SOURCE: IRI New Product Trends 2000 Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 6 Testing Options: New Product Tests What Options do You Have for New Product Testing? f Simulated Test Market (STM) f Roll & Read Test f BehaviorScan Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 7 Testing Options: New Product Tests Simulated Test Markets: Less Accuracy & Insights Criteria Score Comments f Only a concept board stimulus Completeness f Just norms for marketing mix elements f Good diagnostics Insights f Based on what people say, not what they do f Good where norms exist Accuracy f Can be very wrong for unusual products f 2-4 week setup Speed f Results in 6-12 weeks Cost f Typically under $100k f Supplier handles everything Effort Required f Very limited product requirements Confidentiality f Almost guaranteed Poor Low Average Good Excellent Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 8 Testing Options: New Product Tests STM’s promise +/- 20% accuracy 80% of the time, BUT… Brand/Category STM Actual Error Skin Care $70mm $15mm +79% Analgesic $40mm $15mm +62% Frozen Ethnic Food $100mm $40mm +60% Cleaning Product $90mm $150mm -60% Shelf Stable Pasta $60mm $25mm +58% Frozen Snack $70mm $40mm +43% The more unique the product, the higher potential for error. Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 9 Testing Options: New Product Tests Why not just Roll N’ Read? Criteria Score Comments f Can execute full marketing plan Completeness f May have execution problems f Panel data may be available Insights f Surveys possible f Insight into sell-in process Accuracy f Good representation f Preparation takes months Speed f Constrained by retailer resets f 24+ weeks because of distribution build f Total cost can exceed $1.5 million Cost f Need to stock 2-3,000 stores f Ties up sales/brokers Effort Required f Requires mainstream manufacturing Confidentiality f Completely readable by competition Poor Low Average Good Excellent Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 10 Testing Options: New Product Tests BehaviorScan Criteria Score Comments Completeness f Can execute full marketing plan. Full control f Complete panel data available Insights f Can test/model alternative marketing plans f Can identify and survey triers Accuracy f IntroCast validates at +/- 9%, 90% of time f 6 week setup Speed f 12-24 weeks to run f Research costs $350k+ Cost f Need to stock 20-40 stores f IRI negotiates with retailer Effort Required f IRI stocks and merchandises product f Some of store data is masked Confidentiality f All of panel data is masked Poor Low Average Good Excellent Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 11 Testing Options: New Product Tests When to use STM vs. BScan? STM Bscan Established category New or multiple categories Cannibalization not important Cannibalization important “Typical” marketing plan “Unique” marketing plan Low investment High investment Low risk High risk Confidentiality critical Some exposure acceptable Need results in 6-8 weeks Need results in 12-24 weeks Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 12 Testing Options: New Product Tests Fact: New Product Testing in BehaviorScan Is Less Expensive than Other In-Market Options Controlled BehaviorScan Roll N’ Read Market Research & Analysis $300,000 $80,000 $40,000 Controlled Distribution $25,000 $195,000 $0 Media $150,000 $250,000 $500,000 Sales Force $0 $0 $60,000 Sales Promotion $15,000 $100,000 $200,000 Manufacture Product $25,000 $100,000 $200,000 TOTAL $515,000 $725,000 $1,000,000 Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 13 Agenda Why Test New Products & What Options are Available? Why Test TV Advertising & What Options are Available BehaviorScan: How it Works & What You Get New Multi-Outlet Panel Data Improved Panel ANCOVA Model Appendices Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Why Test TV Advertising? Why Should you Test TV Advertising? f Many advertising programs have negative ROI’s f Advertising doesn’t always work – you need to test it f Get more for your marketing dollar; reduce uncertainty f The media has changed; you must adapt f Bscan is more accurate than Matched Market tests and often costs less Test TV: Heavy or reduced spend, broadcast vs. cable, in/out season, 15s vs. 30s, multi vs. single brand Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 15 Why Test TV Advertising? If you just increase advertising, it often won’t work … but 24% of the time it will Effect on Sales % of Cases No significant difference 45 Up to 5% difference 15 5.1 to 10% 16 10.1 to 20% 16 24% More than 20% 8 Source: IRI Results Database. BScan & MM Tests. Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 16 Why Test TV Advertising? Most Marketing Programs Have Negative ROI’s Incremental Profit Per Marketing Dollar Spent Trade 72% Coupons 51% Advertising 57% Source: 21 Recent Mix Drivers Studies Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 17 Why Test TV Advertising? The Media has Changed # of Channels in the Avg Home More channels, more choices 1980 10.0 means more opportunity for media targeting 2004 100 Cost per Thousand Viewers (CPM $) 1980 4.8 TV is more expensive: A 414% increase in CPM vs. a 212% increase in Cost of Living. 2004 19.9 Source: Media Dynamics Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 18 Testing Options: TV Ad Tests What Options do you Have for TV Ad Testing? f Look to the Past: Model f Advertising Tests: f Informal Matched Market f Statistical Matched Market f BehaviorScan f Copy Testing Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 19 Testing Options: TV Ad Tests When to Test vs. Model Advertising? Model Test Been done before Never been done before Moderate change within +/-25% Major change Low investment or risk of failure High investment or risk of failure Few unknowns Many unknowns Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 20 Testing Options: TV Ad Tests Informal In-Market Test Criteria Score Comments Completeness f Good for guidance on low-risk decisions f Directional reads Insights f May be able to read competitive response f “Raw” read – no statistically techniques applied Accuracy f Leads to wrong conclusion 50% of the time f Similar to Bscan for established brands Speed f Distribution build slower for new products Cost f High due to media costs Effort Required f Manufacturer handles all aspects Confidentiality f High competitive exposure Poor Low Average Good Excellent Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 21 Testing Options: TV Ad Tests Statistical Matched Market Test Criteria Score Comments f Good for analyses that can’t be tested at the HH-level Completeness like consumer promotions and radio advertising. f Panel overlay possible Insights f May be able to read competitive response f Statistical match and ANCOVA greatly improve Accuracy accuracy f Less control/more unknowns than Bscan f Similar to Bscan for established brands Speed f Distribution build slower for new products Cost f Usually higher than Bscan due to media costs f Client sales force executes treatment Effort Required f IRI matches markets and analyzes results Confidentiality f High competitive exposure Poor Low Average Good Excellent Copyright © 2006 Information Resources, Inc.