October 2013 African Migration Robert E.B. Lucas Economics Department, Boston University, 270 Bay State Road, Boston MA 02215, USA [email protected] Forthcoming in The Handbook on the Economics of International Migration, edited by Barry R. Chiswick and Paul W. Miller, to be published by Elsevier. For taking the time to read this chapter, for their comments, suggestions and corrections I am most grateful to Kehinde Ajayi, John Harris, Tim Hatton, Karen Jacobsen, Hayley Lucas and Fleur Wouterse. Abstract Factors shaping international migration, over the last half century, from and into the countries and territories of Sub-Saharan and North Africa, as well as the economic and some social implications of those movements, are examined. Existing analyses of these issues are critically reviewed, including topics particularly pertinent to the African context and evidence on cross- cutting themes studied in the African context. The most recent data available on each aspect are summarized and fresh results, based on these data, are presented on several topics. JEL codes: F22 - International Migration F24 – Remittances O55 - Africa J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration H56 - National Security and War Contents 1. Introducing the setting. 1.1. The colonial heritage. 1.2. Porous borders and the influence of geography. 1.3. Economic growth and poverty. 1.4. Demographic transition. 1.5. Conflict and refugees. 1.6. A challenging setting. 2. The migration policy framework. 2.1. Immigration policies of the EU member countries: implications for Africans. 2.1.1. Schengen visas, residence permits and processing asylum seekers. 2.1.2. Bilateral agreements with African states. 2.1.3. Enforcement and outcomes. 2.2. Entry of Africans to the US and Canada. 2.3. GCC contracting of Africans. 2.4. Movements in Africa. 2.4.1. Exit restrictions and expulsions. 2.4.2. Immigration controls. 2.4.3. Regional mobility agreements. 2.4.3.1. South African mine labor. 2.4.4. Processing refugees. 3. Determinants and composition of migration. 3.1. Multivariate analyses of the magnitude of migration. 3.1.1. Existing evidence. 3.1.2. Fresh evidence. 3.1.2.1. Estimates of augmented gravity models for African non-refugee migrants. 3.1.2.2. Comparative estimates on African refugees. 3.2. Characterizing African migrants. 3.2.1. Gender. 3.2.2. Education. 3.2.2.1. Study abroad. 3.2.2.2. Motives for Africa’s brain-drain: existing and new evidence. 3.2.3. Labor force status, occupations and field of study. 4. Remittance markets and correlates. 4.1. Magnitudes and mechanisms. 4.2. Determinants: macro and micro correlates. 4.2.1. Aggregate remittance inflows. 4.2.2. Household survey data on remittances. 4.2.2.1. Internal remittances. 4.2.2.2. International remittances. 4.3. Remittance inflows: a summing up. 5. Economic and social consequences of the migration-remittance nexus. 5.1. Long-run growth in domestic production. 5.1.1. Investment in fixed assets. 5.1.1.1. Remittances and aggregate investment. 5.1.1.2. Household investment responses. 5.1.1.3. Enterprise start-ups: returned migrants’ savings. 5.1.1.4. Harnessing remittances for investment? 5.1.2. Human capital and technology. 5.1.2.1. Elements of brain-drain and brain-gain: the African evidence. 5.1.2.1.1. Induced education at home. 5.1.2.1.2. The bilateral migration-trade link. 5.1.2.1.3. Returns to returning. 5.1.2.1.4. Health and healthcare professionals. 5.1.2.2. Towards a synthesis: policy issues. 5.2. Short-run economic effects. 5.2.1. Dutch disease and the real exchange rate. 5.2.2. Labor market adjustments to emigration. 5.2.3. Economic impact of refugee inflows. 5.3. Inequality and poverty. 5.4. Social effects. 5.4.1. Fertility and the family. 5.4.2. Political consequences and security issues. 6. Development strategies and future migration prospects. Appendix A. Notes on data sources. Appendix B. Alternative approaches to estimating a gravity model for Africa. Acronyms CRED Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross domestic product IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IOM International Organization for Migration IV Instrumental variables KIDS KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study NGO Non-Governmental Organization OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OLS Ordinary least squares PPP Purchasing power parity SAMP Southern African Migration Project SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TEBA The Employment Bureau of Africa UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees US United States WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WHO World Health Organization 1 Africa is no stranger to mass migrations. For more than one hundred millennia, following their initial evolution, which may have been in the coastal area near the present-day borders of Namibia and Angola, Homo Sapiens moved northwards then migrated out of Africa for the first time some 70,000 years ago. (Tishkoff et al., 2009). Recent DNA evidence points to some potential inter-breeding with Homo Neanderthalensis, a prior inhabitant of Europe, before migrating onwards ultimately to populate all but the Antarctic region. (Green et al., 2010). Starting about 2,000 years ago, although the precise pattern of mobility remains disputed, the spread of the Bantu-speaking peoples, originating from today’s Cameroon and Eastern Nigeria, led to one of the largest migrations seen in recent millennia, displacing or integrating with the indigenous inhabitants of East and eventually South Africa. (Oliver, 1966). From the 16th to 19th centuries perhaps 12 million Africans were trafficked in the trans-Atlantic slave trade (Lovejoy, 1989); very rough estimates of the magnitude of the trans-Sahara slave market operated by Arabic traders, which began much earlier, suggest comparable and possibly even larger numbers. (Austen, 1987). These immense movements have left their legacies (Nunn and Wantchekon, 2011), but the purpose in the coming pages is to record Africa’s experience with cross-border movements in the modern era. Two main strands run through the discussion: the features of migration that set Africa apart; and evidence from the African context on some of the cross-cutting themes in the migration literature. It is not uncommon to treat Sub-Saharan Africa and Africa as synonymous; they are not. The coverage here encompasses both sides of the Sahara and is divided into six main sections. The first sets the stage, establishing a little background information about the continent and noting some distinguishing features of its recent migration flows. The second documents key migration policies, both within and beyond the region, that impact these 2 movements. The next two sections then turn to correlates and the composition of migration, followed by a look at remittance markets and patterns of these transfers, before turning to address some of the key consequences of these outcomes in Section 5. The chapter closes by drawing some tentative lessons from this review in looking to the future of African migration. 1. Introducing the setting. In their book on global migration, Hatton and Williamson (2005, p.246) were moved to title a chapter “Where are all the Africans?” The question is posed by the authors because “Africans make up only a small minority of those who manage, one way or another, to become permanent residents in more-developed parts of the world, particularly Europe and North America”. (Ibid.) Yet it is maintained, in the present chapter, that international migration is of considerable importance to Africa and likely to become far more so in the foreseeable future. The data in answer to the question posed by Hatton and Williamson have subsequently undergone major enhancement. Estimates compiled in World Bank (2011a) show the number of persons, born in Africa and living, at the turn of the Millennium, in a country other than where they were born, to be nearly twenty million. This represents some 2.4 percent of the home population of Africa, in comparison to the UN (2009a) estimate of a world migrant stock equal to 2.9 percent of global population at the time. Africa’s diaspora is thus somewhat lower than that from the rest of the world, relative to population, but not by much. FIGURE 1 ABOUT HERE Figure 1 draws upon those World Bank (2011a) data to depict the dispersal of the African diaspora at the time of the 2000 census for each host country. Clearly an important feature of African international migration is that well over half of African migrants live in another country 3 in Africa.1 In addition, by 2000 there were some 1.8 million Africans in the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) and a further seven million were in the 34 states that were or became members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by 2010. Relative to home population, the African emigration rate to the OECD countries is not especially low compared to other low-income regions, which is illustrated in Figure 2. Africa has far more migrants per capita in the OECD countries than does South Asia, though somewhat less than South-East Asia and South America. FIGURE 2 ABOUT HERE However, an important distinction needs to be drawn that will permeate this chapter; over half of the Africans in the OECD are North Africans.