Coliban Water Urban Water Strategy 2017 Version 1.1 Revision History Table 1: Revision and Distribution History of UWS 2017 Distribution Document Version Revision Date1 Board of Coliban Water Final 1.0 7 April 2017 Minister for Water Final 1.0 7 April 2017 DELWP Final 1.0 7 April 2017 Coliban Water website Final 1.1 6 July 2017 Note 1: UWS to be reviewed no later than 2022. Document Control Table 2: Document Control Author (Date) Controller (Date) Water Resources Manager (July 2017) Water Resources Manager (July 2017) “ Schedule of Current Revisions & Proposed Amendments Table 3: Current and Proposed Revisions to UWS 2017 Section Sub-Section Comments Version 1.1 - Minor editorial revisions. Part B Additional tables added DISCLAIMER Figures and any values provided are indicative only and not intended to be definitive given the high degree of uncertainty associated with climate, population and demand forecasts over a 50 year timeframe. Coliban Water reserves the right to alter or update information as and when the document is revised over time. URBAN WATER STRATEGY 2 0 1 7 Page 2 Table of Contents COLIBAN WATER URBAN WATER STRATEGY 2017 ........................................... 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 6 PART A - CONTEXT ..................................................................................................... 8 Overview................................................................................................................................... 8 Coliban Water Business .............................................................................................................. 8 Geographical Context ............................................................................................................... 10 Coliban Water Systems – Aggregated Data .............................................................................. 11 Source and System Reliabilities ................................................................................................ 12 Water Resource Management ................................................................................................ 13 Risks and Uncertainties – Demand and Supply ........................................................................ 13 Policy Setting - ‘Water for Victoria’ .......................................................................................... 13 Role of Urban Water Strategy .................................................................................................. 14 Objectives of an Urban Water Strategy .................................................................................... 14 Comparison of DELWP Guidelines and Coliban Water’s UWS ................................................. 15 Victorian Water Management Planning Framework ................................................................ 15 Water Sources .......................................................................................................................... 16 Water Resource Planning ......................................................................................................... 18 Shared Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 19 Regional Climate Perspective .................................................................................................. 20 Major Regional Climate Drivers ................................................................................................ 20 The Climate Challenge Ahead .................................................................................................. 23 Climate Baselines .................................................................................................................... 23 Historical Climate ..................................................................................................................... 23 Current Climate Baseline (1975 – 2016) ................................................................................... 24 Post-1997 Baseline (1997 – 2016) (‘Step Change’)................................................................... 24 Climate Change Baseline (2040 and 2065) ............................................................................... 24 Climate Scenarios used for the Urban Water Strategy ............................................................ 25 Climate Change Implications for Coliban Water ...................................................................... 26 Impact of the Millennium Drought 1996 – 2009 ...................................................................... 31 Climate Impact on Rainfall and Inflow ..................................................................................... 31 ‘Operational Drought’ in Action ............................................................................................... 33 Drought Related Expenditure ................................................................................................... 34 Other Drought Related Financial Impacts ................................................................................ 35 PART B – PROJECTIONS TO 2040 & 2065 ....................................................... 36 Demand Projections ................................................................................................................. 36 Urban Water Demand Projections ........................................................................................... 37 Wastewater Demand Projections............................................................................................. 40 Rural Raw Water Demand Projections ..................................................................................... 41 Total Regional Raw Water Demand ......................................................................................... 41 Projections of Raw Water Availability ..................................................................................... 43 Projections of Inflows to Major Catchment Storages in the Campaspe River Basin ................ 43 URBAN WATER STRATEGY 2 0 1 7 Page 3 Allocation Projections against Bulk Entitlements and Water Shares ....................................... 44 Projections of Groundwater Allocations .................................................................................. 46 Projection of Available Recycled Water ................................................................................... 46 Supply Projections .................................................................................................................. 47 Treatment Plant Infrastructure Requirements ........................................................................ 49 Water Treatment Plants ........................................................................................................... 49 Wastewater Treatment Plants ................................................................................................. 50 PART C – MANAGING OUR SERVICE AND SUPPLY ........................................ 52 Managing Our Service – Key Strategies ................................................................................... 52 Level of Service / Security ........................................................................................................ 52 Maintaining Service – Key Strategies ...................................................................................... 55 Operational Flexibility .............................................................................................................. 56 Demand Management.............................................................................................................. 57 Alternative Sources of Raw Water ........................................................................................... 57 Supply Augmentation ............................................................................................................... 58 Liveability .................................................................................................................................. 58 Chronic Trend in Supply-Demand Balance ............................................................................... 59 Characteristics of Long-Term Change ....................................................................................... 59 Strategies to Manage Chronic Changes .................................................................................... 59 Action Plan for Long-Term Change ........................................................................................... 60 Option Identification and Evaluation ...................................................................................... 61 Criteria for Option Selection and Evaluation ............................................................................ 62 Options ..................................................................................................................................... 64 ‘Business as Usual’ (Generic Initiatives) ................................................................................... 65 Proposed ‘Next Steps’ ............................................................................................................. 67 Investment Sequence ..............................................................................................................