Final Report PREPARED FOR: NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA A Report on the Contribution of Nuclear Science and Technology (S&T) to Innovation Fall, 2014 kpmg.ca A Report on the Contribution of Nuclear Science and Technology (S&T) to Innovation Table of Contents Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Roadmap to the Research Questions 1 1.2 Structure of the Report 2 1.3 Context and Limitations 4 2 METHODOLOGY 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Defining the Nuclear S&T Ecosystem and the Innovation Process 5 2.3 Identify Measures of Innovation Capacity and Outcomes 8 2.4 Collect and Analyze Data 10 3 CANADA’S INNOVATION SYSTEM IN GLOBAL CONTEXT 15 3.1 Chapter Overview 15 3.2 Measuring the State of Canada’s Innovation System 20 3.3 Comparative Assessment of Canadian Industry Level Innovation Metrics 28 3.4 Research Capability International Comparisons 41 3.5 Overview of Federal Investments in S&T 62 4 EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR S&T IN CANADA’S INNOVATION LANDSCAPE 69 4.1 Chapter Overview 69 4.2 Definitions 71 4.3 Overview of Historic Origins of Nuclear S&T Research 73 4.4 Review of Evolution of Each Cluster 75 4.5 Overview of Recent Developments 88 4.6 Capital Investment 94 4.7 International Perspectives on Canada’s Nuclear S&T Capabilities 97 4.8 Chapter Summary 100 5 CANADA’S NUCLEAR S&T FACILITIES TODAY 101 5.1 Chapter Overview 101 5.2 TRIUMF 102 5.3 Saskatchewan 107 5.4 Universities and CANMET 113 5.5 AECL 118 5.6 Summary 129 6 IMPACT OF NUCLEAR S&T CAPABILITIES WITHIN CANADA’S INNOVATION SYSTEM 131 6.1 Chapter Overview 131 6.2 Mosaic of Nuclear S&T Cluster Capabilities 135 6.3 Nuclear S&T Contribution to Canada’s Innovation Outcomes 147 6.4 Nuclear S&T and the Nuclear Medicine Sector 162 6.5 Summary 166 7 INNOVATION AND THE NUCLEAR ENERGY SECTOR 167 7.1 Chapter Overview 167 A Report on the Contribution of Nuclear Science and Technology (S&T) to Innovation 7.2 Nuclear S&T Activities at AECL and Drivers of Value 169 7.3 Role AECL Plays within the Nuclear Energy Utility Sector and its Innovation 173 7.4 Value derived from AECL Activities 188 7.5 Summary 208 8 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM NUCLEAR ENERGY 209 8.1 Chapter Overview 209 8.2 Value of Nuclear Energy as a Strategic Sector 211 8.3 Public Good of Lower Electricity Costs 213 8.4 Refurbishment Project Jobs & GDP 221 8.5 GHG Emissions Implications 223 8.6 Summary 225 APPENDIX I – DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES 1 APPENDIX II – ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 APPENDIX III – GLOSSARY OF TERMS 1 A Report on the Contribution of Nuclear Science and Technology (S&T) to Innovation List of Figures Figure 1 – Nuclear S&T Ecosystem .............................................................................................................. 6 Figure 2 – Pathways to Innovation and Innovation Measures ...................................................................... 7 Figure 3 – Approach to Interviews and Surveys ......................................................................................... 13 Figure 4 – Relative Productivity Levels in the Business Sector .................................................................. 21 Figure 5 – WEF Global Competitiveness Index ........................................................................................... 22 Figure 6 – WEF Innovation Score (2013) ..................................................................................................... 23 Figure 7 – WEF Innovation Index Correlation with BERD ........................................................................... 24 Figure 8 – Research Capability, Integration and Business Innovation Scores from CCA and WEF ............ 25 Figure 9 – Domestic Expenditures on R&D (GERD) as a Percentage of GDP (1990-2013) ........................ 27 Figure 10 – BERD, HERD and GOVERD by Funder (2009-2013) ................................................................ 28 Figure 11 – Comparative Analysis of BERD ................................................................................................ 29 Figure 12 – Resource Leaders & Technology Leaders: BERD Intensity Comparison ................................ 30 Figure 13 – Share of GDP, BERD and BERD Intensity for Broad Sectors of Canadian GDP (2013) ........... 30 Figure 14 – Provincial BERD Intensity across Canada (2006) ..................................................................... 31 Figure 15 – Share of GDP, BERD and BERD Intensity for Specific Sectors of Canadian R&D Strength (2013) ...................................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 16 – Share of GDP and BERD Intensity by Sector ........................................................................... 34 Figure 17 – Comparative Analysis of HRST as a Percentage of Total Employment in OECD Countries (2008) ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 18 – Average HRST as a Percentage of Total Employment, by Sector ........................................... 35 Figure 19 – R&D Personnel ......................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 20 – Comparative Analysis of HERD ................................................................................................ 38 Figure 21 – Natural and Social Sciences HERD Comparison (1997 vs. 2012) ............................................ 39 Figure 22 – Comparison of HERD Intensity: Canada Overall vs. Canadian Nuclear Industry ..................... 39 Figure 23 – Canada’s Changing Research Focus ........................................................................................ 40 Figure 24 – Percentage of Nuclear S&T Enabled Research Publications by Research Subject ................. 41 Figure 25 – Number of Publications by Nuclear Energy Related Researchers (2007 vs. 2013) ................. 41 Figure 26 – Canada’s international Reputation for Natural Sciences .......................................................... 43 Figure 27 - Canada’s International Bibliometric Ranking for Natural Sciences ........................................... 44 Figure 28 – Per Capita GDP and Country ARC Scores ................................................................................ 45 Figure 29 – International Comparison of Canada’s ARC by Field of Research (Excluding Japan and Korea) ................................................................................................................................................ 47 Figure 30 – International ARCs for Physics and Astronomy ....................................................................... 48 Figure 31 – SI vs ARC for Sub-Atomic Sciences ......................................................................................... 49 Figure 32 – Comparison of Specialization Focus of research in Natural Sciences vs. Subatomic Physics . 50 Figure 33 – SI vs ARC for Nuclear Medicine ............................................................................................... 51 Figure 34 – Nuclear Medicine Papers per Population (Comparison Index vs. US Reference) .................... 51 Figure 35 – SI vs ARC for Materials Sciences ............................................................................................. 52 Figure 36 – International Comparison of Manufacturing GDP Trends Among Peer Nations ...................... 53 Figure 37 – Trends in Canada’s Trade Balance ........................................................................................... 54 Figure 38 – BERD and Innovation Among Canada’s Peer Nations ............................................................. 55 Figure 39 – Country Paper Production vs. Population and Per Capita GDP ................................................ 56 Figure 40 – Relation between Patenting and Publishing Activities ............................................................. 56 Figure 41 – Nuclear S&T Enabled Professor Publications (Total Publications 2007 to 2013) ..................... 57 Figure 42 – Nuclear S&T Enabled Materials Science and Manufacturing GDP Growth ............................. 58 Figure 43 – Alignment of US and Canada Research Specialization ............................................................ 59 Figure 44 – Nuclear S&T Enabled Material Science Research by Field of Research .................................. 59 Figure 45 – Nuclear S&T Enabled Research Publications (2007-2013) ....................................................... 60 Figure 46 – Canada’s Nuclear S&T Material Science ARC Compared with Nuclear S&T Overall .............. 60 Figure 47 – Percentage of Canada’s International Collaborative Papers that focus on Nuclear S&T Enabled Materials Science Research ................................................................................................... 61 A Report on the Contribution of Nuclear Science and Technology (S&T) to Innovation Figure 48 – International Collaboration Tendencies .................................................................................... 61 Figure 49 – Overview of Federal Funding for R&D ..................................................................................... 63 Figure 50 – Direct Expenditure in Support of Business R&D ..................................................................... 64 Figure 51 – Federal Government Expenditure in Support of Academic R&D ............................................. 64 Figure 52 – Opinions of Canada's S&T Experts on Canada's