Peace and Security The Challenges Ahead Proceedings of the 30th International Workshop on Global Security His Excellency Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defense of France / Workshop Patron Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Co-Director, Center for Strategic Decision Research / Workshop Chairman Anne D. Baylon / Editor Peace and Security The Challenges Ahead Proceedings of the 30th International Workshop on Global Security His Excellency Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defense of France / Workshop Patron Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Co-Director, Center for Strategic Decision Research / Workshop Chairman Anne D. Baylon / Editor Front Cover The main courtyard of the Hôtel National des Invalides, with the Dôme des Invalides (or Dome Church) in the background. Inside title page Musée de l’Armée (Army Museum): armor from the 13th to 17th century. Back Cover The Dôme des Invalides. Built as a royal chapel for Louis XIV, it now houses the tomb of Napoleon. © 2013–2014 Center for Strategic Decision Research International Standard Book Number: 1-890664-20-0 Printed in the United States of America by Almaden Press, Santa Clara, California. Photography by Jean Lee. Center for Strategic Decision Research & Strategic Decisions Press 2456 Sharon Oaks Drive, Menlo Park, California 94025 USA Telephone: +1 (650) 854-4751 Fax: +1 (650) 854-0761 [email protected] | [email protected] | www.csdr.org with appreciation His Excellency Jean-Yves Le Drian French Minister of Defense Workshop Patron Minister Kader Arif Lieutenant General Jean-Marc Duquesne Vice Minister of Defense of France Director, Institut des hautes études de défense nationale closing keynote address (ihedn) TOP ROW Opening session of the 30th International Workshop on Global Security in the Grand Salon of the Invalides National Monument, the former council chamber of King Louis XIV. ——————— MIDDLE ROW left photo Dr. Andrew Murrison MP, Minister for International Security Strategy of the United Kingdom. right photo, from left to right Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, Deputy Secretary General of NATO; Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Workshop Chairman and Founder; His Excellency Alan Shatter TD, Minister of Justice, Equality and Defense of Ireland. ——————— BOTTOM ROW from left to right His Excellency Zekerijah Osmic, Minister of Defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina; Ambassador Michel Foucher, Director of Studies and Research, Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN); Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Workshop Chairman and Founder; Minister Franco Frattini, former Vice President of the European Commission and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy; His Excellency Irakli Alasania, Minister of Defense of Georgia; His Excellency Igor Lukšić, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro. TOP ROW from left to right Minister Bogusław Winid, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland; State Secretary Tamás Vargha, Parliamentary State Secretary, Ministry of Defense of Hungary; Ambassador István Kovács, Ambassador of Hungary to NATO; First Deputy Minister Daniel Kostoval, First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Czech Republic. ——————— MIDDLE ROW left photo Ingénieur Général Robert Ranquet, Deputy Director, Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN). middle photo General of the Army Bertrand Ract-Madoux, Chief of General Staff of the French Army. right photo His Excellency Talat Xhaferi, Minister of Defense of Macedonia. ——————— BOTTOM ROW left photo, from left to right Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Workshop Chairman and Founder; Ambassador Dr. Assad Omer, Ambassador of Afghanistan to France. right photo, from left to right Vice Admiral Mark Fox, Deputy Commander, U.S. Central Command; Ambassador Larry Butler, Civilian Deputy to the Commander, U.S. European Command and Foreign Policy Advisor. TOP ROW left photo, from left to right Ms. Rebecca Bash, Acquisition Advisor, Office of the U.S. Director of Net Assessment; Admiral Jean Betermier, President, Forum of the Future. right photo, from left to right General Hans-Lothar Domröse, Commander, Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum; Vice Admiral Mark Fox, Deputy Commander, U.S. Central Command. ——————— middle ROW from left to right Ambassador Alejandro Alvargonzález San Martín, Secretary General for Defense Policy, Spanish Defense Ministry; Dr. Stefanie Babst, Head, Strategic Analysis for the NATO Secretary General and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee; Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Workshop Chairman and Founder; Vice Admiral Mark Fox, Deputy Commander, U.S. Central Command; Ambassador Fareed Yasseen, Ambassador of Iraq to France. ——————— BOTTOM ROW left photo, from left to right Dr. Frederick Douzet, Castex Chair of Cyber Strategy, Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN); Major General David Senty, former Chief of Staff, U.S. Cyber Command; Director, Cyber Operations, the MITRE Corporation. right photo, from left to right His Excellency Dr. Jaak Aaviksoo, Minister of Education and Research of Estonia; former Minister of Defense; Mr. Marco Braccioli, Senior Vice President, Area S.p.A. TOP ROW from left to right Mr. Hervé Guillou, former CEO, Cassidian Cyber Security; Rear Admiral Arnaud Coustillière, Cyber Lead, French Ministry of Defense; Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Workshop Chairman and Founder; Mr. Patrick Pailloux, Director General, French National Agency for Information Systems Security (ANSSI); Mr. Haden Land, Vice President, Engineering and Chief Technology Officer, Lockheed Martin Information Systems and Global Solutions. ——————— MIDDLE ROW left photo, from left to right Major General Cai Jihua, Senior Advisor, China Institute for International Strategic Studies (CIISS), Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Ms. Yang Nuan, China Institute for International Strategic Studies, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. right photo, from left to right Minister Kader Arif, Vice Minister of Defense of France; Lieutenant General Jean-Marc Duquesne, Director, Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN). ——————— BOTTOM ROW left photo Ambassador Ichiro Komatsu, Ambassador of Japan to France. middle photo, from left to right Minister Bogusław Winid, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland; Ambassador Carsten Søndergaard, Ambassador of Denmark to NATO. right photo Ambassador Yves Brodeur, Ambassador of Canada to NATO. TOP ROW Reception and dinner in the Salons du Gouverneur Militaire of the Invalides, the private ceremonial rooms of the Military Governor of Paris. ——————— MIDDLE ROW left photo, from left to right Ms. Neyla Arnas, Senior Research Fellow, National Defense University, U.S. Department of Defense; Prof. Dr. Holger Mey, Head of Advanced Concepts, Cassidian. right photo, from left to right Mr. Francis Bruckmann, Deputy Director of Corporate Security, Orange; Mr. Robert Rodriguez, Chairman, Security Innovation Network (SINET). ——————— BOTTOM ROW Post-workshop private visit of the French Senate, which is housed in the Palais du Luxembourg, the former royal palace of French queen Marie de Medicis. The 30th international Workshop on Global Security is presented by the Center for Strategic Decision Research (CSDR) and Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN), with the sponsorship of the following governments and organizations: UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Net Assessment National Defense University Center for Strategic Decision Research major sponsors ASSOCIATE sponsors acknowledgements of past host and sponsoring governments Czech Republic Kingdom of the Netherlands Ministry of Defense of France Kingdom of Denmark Kingdom of Norway Ministry of Defense of Italy Federal Republic of Germany Republic of Poland Ministry of Defense of Turkey Republic of Greece Republic of Portugal Canadian Armed Forces Republic of Hungary Ministry of Defense of Austria Russian Ministry of Industry, Science, and Technology Table of Contents Contributors xxv Keynote Address by French Vice Defense Minister Kader Arif (French Official Version) xxxi Keynote Address by French Vice Defense Minister Kader Arif (English Version) xxxv The Three Kinds of Threats .................................................................................................................................... xxxv French Objectives ................................................................................................................................................. xxxvi Why Did France Intervene in Mali? ..................................................................................................................... xxxvi The Need to Work Together ................................................................................................................................. xxxvi Acting Together to Restore and Maintain Peace ................................................................................................... xxxvii Welcoming Remarks by Lieutenant General Jean-Marc Duquesne, IHEDN Director xxxix Overview by Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Workshop Chairman, and Anne D. Baylon, Editor xli Acknowledgements xlvii Peace and Security: the Challenges Ahead Chapter 1. Challenges Facing NATO and the Transatlantic Community Post-2014 3 Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, NATO Deputy Secretary General NATO’s Future Missions—and the Need for a New Transatlantic Balance in Contributions ...................................... 3 NATO Needs the Right Operational Capabilities ......................................................................................................