UNION STATION 2031 DEMANDS AND OPPORTUNITIESUNION STATION STUDY2031 OPPORTUNITIES AND DRAFTDEMANDS FINAL STUDY Fall 2012 March 2011 Union Station 2031 Demands and Opportunities Study Union Station 2031 Demands and Opportunities Study Fall 2012 Prepared for: Prepared by: Metrolinx Halcrow Consulting Inc 20 Bay Street, Suite 901 207 Queen’s Quay W Suite 550 Toronto ON M5J 2N8 Toronto, ON M5J 1A7 +1 416 363 8123 www.halcrow.com i Union Station 2031 Demands and Opportunities Study Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Related Initiatives .......................................................................................................... 3 2 Study Design Overview........................................................................ 5 3 Existing and Future Rail Travel Market Analysis ............................ 9 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 A.M. Peak Period GO Rail Ridership by GO Lines ..............................................10 3.3 A.M. Peak Period GO Rail Market Destined to PD 1 by Origin Regions ........11 3.4 A.M. Peak Period Passenger Egress Characteristics from Union Station ..........11 3.5 Historical Land Use Growth .....................................................................................13 3.6 Historical GO Rail Ridership Growth .....................................................................15 3.7 Future Land Use and Travel Market Analysis ........................................................18 3.8 Key Conclusions ..........................................................................................................25 4 Precedent Analysis .............................................................................. 27 4.1 Toronto Context .........................................................................................................27 4.2 Case Studies ..................................................................................................................32 4.3 Madrid – Intermodal Exchange Stations (IES) ......................................................33 4.4 Melbourne – Downtown Rail Loop .........................................................................38 4.5 Montreal –Physical Integration .................................................................................44 4.6 Sao Paulo – Metro-Commuter Rail Integration .....................................................48 4.7 Findings/Implications for Toronto and Union Station ........................................55 5 Model Development and Base Case Model Analysis .................... 58 5.1 Model Development ...................................................................................................58 5.2 Base Case Analysis ......................................................................................................64 i Union Station 2031 Demands and Opportunities Study 5.3 Assignment Review .....................................................................................................69 5.4 Screenline Analysis ......................................................................................................71 5.5 System Analysis Process .............................................................................................72 6 Transportation System Option Development ................................. 74 6.1 Overview.......................................................................................................................74 6.2 Transportation System Option Workshop .............................................................75 6.3 Summary of Workshop Discussion ..........................................................................82 7 Transportation System Options Screening Assessment ............. 84 7.1 Overview.......................................................................................................................84 7.2 Screening Assessment .................................................................................................85 7.3 Carry Forward Transportation System Options Short List ..................................85 8 System Option Evaluation .................................................................. 91 8.1 Overview.......................................................................................................................91 8.2 Definition of Themes for Detailed Analysis ...........................................................91 8.3 Analysis and Evaluation .............................................................................................97 8.4 Transportation System Option Evaluation Summary ........................................ 104 9 Final Network Assessment .............................................................. 109 9.1 Overview.................................................................................................................... 109 9.2 Transportation System Option 4B ........................................................................ 109 9.3 Transportation System Option 5A-2 .................................................................... 112 9.4 Transportation System Option 6B ........................................................................ 113 10 Findings/Conclusions and Recommendations ............................ 116 10.1 Overview of Problem – Future Union Station Demand Levels ....................... 116 10.2 Alternative Options to Offload 2031 Passenger Demands at Union Station 117 10.3 Screening Evaluation of Base Transportation System Options........................ 119 10.4 Transportation System Options Evaluation ........................................................ 121 10.5 Final Network Assessment ..................................................................................... 124 ii Union Station 2031 Demands and Opportunities Study 10.6 Next Steps ................................................................................................................. 125 iii Union Station 2031 Demands and Opportunities Study List of Figures Figure 1 - Overview of Study Process ..................................................................................... 7 Figure 2 - Union Station Transit Service ................................................................................. 9 Figure 3 - Distribution of GO Train Passengers from Union Station (a.m. Peak Period) .......................................................................................................................................12 Figure 4 - PD 1 Employment Trend, 2001-2009 ...............................................................15 Figure 5 - GO Rail Catchment Areas ....................................................................................16 Total Transit Market Share, all trips to PD 1, 6-9am Figure 6 - Total Transit Market Share ...................................................................................21 75% 70% 65% 60% percentage 55% 50% 45% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 year Barrie-Bradford 905 area total Georgetown 905 area total Lakeshore East 905 area total Lakeshore West 905 area total Milton 905 area total Richmond Hill 905 area total Stouffville 905 area total Total GO catchment area in 905 region Figure 7 - Proportion of GO Rail to Total Transit .............................................................21 Figure 8 - Focus Area and Destination GO Trips (2006) ..................................................24 Figure 9 - Employment Growth by Zones and Potential Interceptor Stations ..............25 Figure 10 - Location of Planning District 1 within the City of Toronto .........................28 Figure 11 - Early Toronto Rapid Transit Plan .....................................................................29 Figure 12 - City of Toronto: 2006 Employment Densities (jobs/1,000m2) ....................30 Figure 13 - Existing Locations of Intermodal Integration .................................................31 Figure 14 - Aluche Station .......................................................................................................35 Figure 15 - Map of MMA Road Network and IES Stations ..............................................36 Figure 16 - Moncloa Station ....................................................................................................37 Figure 17 - Schematic of MURL Project (as built) and 3D View of Downtown Melbourne ..................................................................................................................................41 Figure 18 - Vendome Station Physical Integration ..............................................................45 Figure 19 - Map of Sao Paulo City and Metropolitan Area ........................................49 Figure 20 - Population Density Plot – Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region ..........................49 Figure 21 - Photo of Sao Paulo City ......................................................................................50 Figure 22 - Current Sao Paulo Rapid Transit Network ......................................................51 iv Union Station 2031