AN INVESTIGATION FOR MATURITY LEVEL AND ROADMAP OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES IN TURKEY A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY AFŞAR TÜRK IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES OCTOBER 2020 Approval of the thesis: AN INVESTIGATION FOR MATURITY LEVEL AND ROADMAP OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES IN TURKEY submitted by AFŞAR TÜRK in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Science and Technological Studies, the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. M. Teoman PAMUKÇU Head of Department Science and Technological Studies Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serhat ÇAKIR Supervisor Physics Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Ünver KAYNAK (Head of the Examining Committee) Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serhat ÇAKIR (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University Physics Prof. Dr. H. Nafiz ALEMDAROĞLU Atılım University Airframe and Powerplant Maintenance Prof. Dr. Gülser KÖKSAL Middle East Technical University Industrial Engineering Prof. Dr. Özlem ÖZDEMİR Middle East Technical University Business Administration iv PLSM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name : Afşar Türk Signature : iii ABSTRACT AN INVESTIGATION FOR MATURITY LEVEL AND ROADMAP OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES IN TURKEY Türk, Afşar Ph.D., Science and Technology Policy Studies Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Serhat Çakır September 2020, 295 pages This research aims to investigate problems, needs of the UAV industry, and required actions for the future in Turkey, to determine technological maturity criteria, and to prepare a technology roadmap. Qualitative data collected through interviews with actors from institutions/enterprises operating in the UAV industry is analysed, and inferences about the Turkish UAV industry are made, and suggestions for findings are developed. Twenty statements prepared to determine the technology goals for the Turkish UAV industry are evaluated using the Delphi technique in two rounds, and a technology roadmap is developed on intelligent flight management of UAV swarms that are resistant to adverse conditions. Technology roadmap and maturity model are built through expert interviews. The maturity model proposed presents descriptive and prescriptive roles. The current state of the Turkish UAV industry is evaluated, conducting an application of the maturity model through a survey. The outputs of the study are presented with technical details, assessment of researcher, and policy recommendations. Keywords: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technologies, Maturity Model, Technology Roadmap. iv ÖZ TÜRKİYE’DE İNSANSIZ HAVA ARACI TEKNOLOJİLERİNİN OLGUNLUK DÜZEYİ VE YOL HARİTASI İÇİN BİR İNCELEME Türk, Afşar Doktora, Bilim ve Teknoloji Politikası Çalışmaları Tez Yöneticisi: Doç. Dr. Serhat Çakır Eylül 2020, 295 sayfa Bu araştırma Türkiye’de İnsansız Hava Aracı (İHA) endüstrisinin sorunlarını, ihtiyaçlarını ve gelecek için yapılması gerekenleri değerlendirmeyi, teknolojik olgunluk kriterlerini tanımlamayı ve bir teknoloji yol haritası hazırlamayı amaçlar. İHA endüstrisinde faaliyet gösteren kurum/kuruluşlardan aktörlerle gerçekleştirilen görüşmeler ile toplanan nitel veri çözümlenerek Türk İHA endüstrisine ilişkin çıkarımlarda bulunulmuş ve bulgulara yönelik öneriler geliştirilmiştir. Türk İHA endüstrisi için teknoloji hedeflerini belirlemek amacıyla hazırlanan 20 adet ifade, iki turda Delfi tekniğiyle değerlendirilmiştir ve olumsuz koşullara dayanıklı İHA sürülerinin zeki uçuş yönetimi üzerine bir teknoloji yol haritası geliştirilmiştir. Teknoloji yol haritası ve olgunluk modeli uzman görüşmelerinden yararlanılarak hazırlanmıştır. Önerilen olgunluk modeli tanımlayıcı ve yol gösterici rolleri sunmaktadır. Olgunluk modelinin bir uygulaması yapılarak Türk İHA endüstrisinin mevcut durumu değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışma çıktıları teknik detaylarla, araştırmacının değerlendirmelerini ve politika önerilerini içerecek şekilde sunulmuştur. Anahtar Kelimeler: İnsansız Hava Aracı, İnsansız Hava Aracı Teknolojileri, Olgunluk Modeli, Teknoloji Yol Haritası. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to thank my family, who brought me to these days for their support. I would like to thank my thesis supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serhat Çakır. Also, I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Özlem Özdemir and Prof. Dr. Gülser Köksal for their insights, suggestions and comments throughout my research. I present my endless thanks to Prof. Dr. Ünver Kaynak and Prof. Dr. H. Nafiz Alemdaroğlu, who made a precious contribution to my thesis study. I would like to thank Prof. Dr. M. Teoman Pamukçu, Head of Department, for his helpful approach. I would like to thank all the participants who contributed to my research. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ............................................................................................................ iv ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv ÖZ ................................................................................................................................ v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ vi LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................... xi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................... xiv CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Statement of Problem ....................................................................................... 1 1.2. Objective of the Research ................................................................................. 2 1.3. Significance of the Research ............................................................................ 2 1.4. Organisation of the Dissertation ....................................................................... 3 2. UAV AND ITS TECHNOLOGIES ......................................................................... 4 2.1 Historical Perspective ........................................................................................ 4 2.3 UAV Technologies .......................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Air Vehicle ............................................................................................. 11 2.3.2 Ground Control Station .......................................................................... 12 2.3.3 Navigation and Flight Control Systems ................................................. 13 2.3.4 Communications Systems ...................................................................... 15 2.3.5 Payload Technologies ............................................................................ 16 3. UAV RESEARCH IN THE WORLD AND TURKEY ......................................... 19 3.1 Research in the world ...................................................................................... 19 3.2 UAV applications in the world ........................................................................ 25 3.3 Studies in Turkey ............................................................................................. 30 4. TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP ............................................................................... 62 4.1 Technology Roadmaps .................................................................................... 62 4.2 UAV Technology Roadmaps .......................................................................... 66 5. MATURITY MODEL ........................................................................................... 82 5.1 Maturity Models .............................................................................................. 82 vii 5.2 Maturity Model Examples ............................................................................... 83 5.3 Technology Readiness Level (TRL)................................................................ 87 6. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES ....................................... 92 6.1 Interviews ........................................................................................................ 94 6.2 The Delphi Method .......................................................................................... 98 6.3 Reliability and Validity of the Research ......................................................... 98 7. RESEARCH PROCESS AND FINDINGS ......................................................... 104 7.1 Investigation of Turkish UAV Industry ........................................................ 104 7.2 A Technology Roadmap for Turkish UAV Industry ..................................... 108 7.3 UAV Industry Maturity Model ...................................................................... 145 8. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION .................................................................