U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska Workshop Sponsors University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) International Arctic Research Center ABR Inc. UAF Institute of Arctic Biology Wildlife Conservation Society Workshop and Report Coordination The Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS) coordinated workshop planning and implementation, and report layout and editing. rctic Res l A ea a r n c o h i t C a e n r n t e e t r n I U s k n n iv a er rb sity ai of Alaska F Workshop Speakers David Atkinson, Erik Beever, Eugenie Euskirchen, Brad Griffith, Geoffrey Haskett, Larry Hinzman, Torre Jorgenson, Doug Kane, Peter Larsen, Anna Liljedahl, Vladimir Romanovsky, Martha Shulski, Matthew Sturm, Amy Tidwell, and Mark Wipfli. Report Reviewers Brian Lawhead, Anna Liljedahl, Wendy Loya, Neil Mochnacz, Larry Moulton, Stephen Murphy, Tom Paragi, Jim Reist, Vladimir Romanovsky, John Walsh, Matthew Whitman, and Steve Zack. Photo Contributors Doug Canfield, Stephanie Clemens, Bryan Collver, Fred DeCicco, Elizabeth Eubanks, Richard Flanders, Larry Hinzman, Marie-Luce Hubert, Benjamin Jones, M. Torre Jorgenson, Jean-Louis Klein, Catherine Moitoret, Mitch Osborne, Leslie Pierce, Jake Schaas, Ted Swem, Ken Tape, Øivind Tøien, Ken Whitten, Chuck Young, Steve Zack, and James Zelenak. Cover Image Ice floating in a lagoon near Collinson Point in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Photo by Philip Martin. Suggested Citation Martin, Philip D., Jennifer L. Jenkins, F. Jeffrey Adams, M. Torre Jorgenson, Angela C. Matz, David C. Payer, Patricia E. Reynolds, Amy C. Tidwell, and James R. Zelenak. 2009. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change: Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska. Report of the Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change (WildREACH): Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska Workshop, 17-18 November 2008. Fairbanks, Alaska: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 138 pages. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska Report from the Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change (WildREACH): Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska Workshop 17–18 November 2008 Westmark Hotel Fairbanks, Alaska Authors: Philip D. Martin, Jennifer L. Jenkins, F. Jeffrey Adams, M. Torre Jorgenson, Angela C. Matz, David C. Payer, Patricia E. Reynolds, Amy C. Tidwell, and James R. Zelenak U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service 101 12th Avenue, Room 110 Fairbanks, Alaska 99701 Phone: 907-456-0325 http://alaska.fws.gov/ Table of Contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 2 Chapter 2: Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8 Chapter 3: Arctic Alaska in a Changing Climate .......................................................................... 12 Chapter 4: Habitat Change .............................................................................................................. 38 Chapter 5: Climate Effects on Fish and Wildlife .......................................................................... 60 Chapter 6: Working Groups’ Summaries: Common Themes and Research Gaps ................... 94 Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................... 110 Appendices Appendix 1: Methods for Climate Projections ............................................................................ 117 Appendix 2: Description and Distribution of Northern Alaska Ecotypes .............................. 120 Appendix 3: WildREACH Workshop Agenda ............................................................................. 127 Appendix 4: WildREACH Workshop Participants ..................................................................... 129 Appendix 5: Working Group Charges and Members .................................................................. 135 Chapter 1 Executive Summary 2 Climate is changing worldwide, In the Arctic, climate affects habitat but the Arctic is warming at a uniquely through the interdependen- rate almost twice the global aver- cies of permafrost, hydrology, and age. Changes already observed in vegetation. The deep, cold, continu- arctic terrestrial landscapes include ous permafrost of the North Slope rapidly eroding shorelines, melting represents a reservoir of resilience ground ice, and increased shrub for this landscape. Nevertheless, growth at high latitudes. Because enhanced seasonal melting of near- the Arctic will likely experience surface ice is already measurably early and disproportionately large altering habitats and hydrology. impacts of climate change, the U.S. Understanding how variation in Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) the type and quantity of ground ice has identified America’s Arctic as a influences a landscape’s susceptibil- priority region for developing man- ity to warming is fundamental to agement strategies to conserve fish, predicting the extent and magnitude wildlife, and their habitats. of habitat change. The Service convened a Wildlife Hydrologic processes are a pivotal Response to Environmental Arctic determinant of climate-influenced Change (WildREACH) workshop on habitat change in arctic Alaska. 17–18 November 2008 in Fairbanks, Changes in overall water balance Alaska. Our goal was to identify the and in timing and magnitude of sea- priority research, modeling, and sonal water and energy fluxes will synthesis activities necessary to strongly affect habitat availability advance our understanding of the and quality for arctic-adapted spe- effects of climate change on birds, cies of fish and wildlife. The seasonal fish, and mammals of arctic Alaska, allocation of precipitation is key to focusing on terrestrial and freshwa- ecosystem response in an environ- ter systems. We used a conceptual ment where water remains frozen modeling approach to identify the most of the year. Despite the expec- potential changes that would most tation of higher annual precipitation, strongly influence habitat suitability models predict a generally drier for a broad suite of arctic species. In summer environment. Refining mod- doing so, we embarked on the first els to more confidently predict water essential step toward incorporating balance and the resultant water climate considerations into biological supply available to various habitat planning and conservation design types is one of our most important for the Arctic. The workshop was at- challenges. tended by over 100 participants rep- resenting federal and state agencies, academia, and commercial and non- profit organizations. WildREACH provided a forum for communication among specialists from multiple disciplines, a vital first step toward establishing effective partnerships. Summaries of each workshop report chapter are provided below. Climate, Permafrost, Hydrology The average annual temperature of Alaska’s North Slope is projected to rise approximately 7°C by 2100. The magnitude of change is impre- cisely known, but Global Circulation Models identify northern Alaska as one of the fastest warming regions of the planet. Annual precipitation is also expected to increase, although there is less certainty surrounding this prediction. The presence of ice-rich permafrost 3 soils makes arctic tundra uniquely vulnerable to the effects of warming. Photo from USFWS, Ikilyariak Creek, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Habitat Change • Floodplains are very dynamic Effects of climate change on North landscapes and could respond to Slope habitats will vary depend- climate change in a variety of ways. ing on the permafrost-influenced Floodplain processes are influ- geomorphic processes specific to enced more strongly by extreme particular ecosystems. It is useful to flood events than by average condi- consider the coastline, Coastal Plain, tions, and models of future flood Foothills, and floodplains separately. frequency and severity must be better developed in order to predict • In the coastal zone, rapid shoreline habitat change. erosion is occurring, associated with the retreat of summer sea Historically, tundra fires have been ice. Rising ocean temperatures, rare on the North Slope, but fire sea level rise, permafrost degrada- frequency will likely increase as the tion, increased storm surges, and climate warms. A positive feedback changes to river discharge and relationship exists whereby soils sediment transport will continue to tend toward a warmer and drier affect habitat availability and qual- condition after fire, which in turn ity in the coastal zone. promotes shrub growth and a more fire-prone landscape. Although wide- • The vast shallow wetlands of the spread conversion of North Slope Coastal Plain landscape are sensi- tundra to spruce forest is not ex- tive to changes in water balance pected within this century, increased that could lead to drying. Lakes shrub cover has been documented may enlarge through melting and in the Brooks Range and Foothills, erosion at their edges. Alterna- a trend that is expected to continue. tively, lakes may drain if surround- Changes in plant phenology (e.g., ing ice wedges degrade, resulting earlier green-up and senescence) in the formation of new drainage are certain to occur as spring melt networks. comes earlier. • The hilly terrain of the Arctic Climate change may increase avail- Foothills is prone to thaw slumps ability and uptake of contaminants and gully formation.