Raiford Road: City of Carrollton Raiford Road Site Residential and Hotel Market Analyses Carrollton, TX July 2008 Prepared for City of Carrollton, TX 1945 E. Jackson Rd. Carrollton, TX 75006 Prepared by 333 W. Trade Street 920 N. Franklin Suite 350 Suite 303 Charlotte, NC 28202 Chicago, IL 60610 704.371.4402 312.643.2500 Raiford Road: City of Carrollton Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction and Site Description ..................................................................................................... 1 2. Area Description ................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 DART Green Line ........................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Greenbelt Extension .................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Highway 121 Tollway ................................................................................................................... 4 3. Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3.1 Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Employment Centers ................................................................................................................... 9 4. Market Rate Apartments .................................................................................................................. 13 4.1 CMA ........................................................................................................................................... 13 4.2 Demographic Trends and Forecast ........................................................................................... 13 4.3 Market Trends ............................................................................................................................ 23 5. Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities ......................................................................... 27 5.1 Comparable Summary ............................................................................................................... 27 5.2 Studio/One-bedroom ................................................................................................................. 26 5.3 Two-bedroom ............................................................................................................................. 27 5.4 Three-bedroom .......................................................................................................................... 28 5.5 Community Profiles .................................................................................................................... 28 6. Development Activity ....................................................................................................................... 40 6.1 Under Construction Apartments ................................................................................................ 40 6.2 Proposed Apartments ................................................................................................................ 40 7. Apartment Inventory and Vacancy Rate Forecast ........................................................................ 42 7.1 Rental Unit Forecast .................................................................................................................. 42 7.2 Demand and Vacancy Rate Forecast ........................................................................................ 42 8. Apartment Product and Rent Recommendations ......................................................................... 43 8.1 Target Market ............................................................................................................................ 43 8.2 Product Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 43 8.3 Unit Mix ...................................................................................................................................... 44 8.4 Rent ........................................................................................................................................... 46 8.5 Absorption .................................................................................................................................. 49 9. Single-Family .................................................................................................................................... 50 9.1 CMA ........................................................................................................................................... 50 9.2 Demographic Trends ................................................................................................................. 50 9.3 Market Trends ............................................................................................................................ 58 9.4 Comparable Projects ................................................................................................................. 62 Raiford Road: City of Carrollton 9.5 Future Development Activity ...................................................................................................... 65 9.6 Site Recommendations and Forecasts ...................................................................................... 65 10. Townhouses ...................................................................................................................................... 69 10.1 Market Trends ............................................................................................................................ 69 10.2 Active Listings ............................................................................................................................ 70 10.3 Comparable Projects ................................................................................................................. 72 10.4 Development Activity ................................................................................................................. 76 10.5 Site Recommendations and Forecasts ...................................................................................... 77 11. Senior Apartments ........................................................................................................................... 82 11.1 Demographic Trends and Forecasts ......................................................................................... 82 11.2 Comparable Communities ......................................................................................................... 86 11.3 Senior Apartment Development Activity .................................................................................... 89 11.4 Rental Site Recommendations and Forecasts .......................................................................... 89 12. Senior For-Sale Housing ................................................................................................................. 90 12.2 For-Sale Senior Site Recommendations and Forecasts ........................................................... 95 13. Hotel Market Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 96 13.1 General Market Area ................................................................................................................. 96 13.2 Hotel Market Supply and Demand Analysis ............................................................................ 105 13.3 Competitive Hotel Market ........................................................................................................ 110 13.4 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 122 14. Site Recommendations and Forecasts ........................................................................................ 126 Appendix .................................................................................................................................................. 127 Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................ 130 List of Tables Table 1: Private Industry Employment Trends, Dallas County, 2002-2007 ................................. 5 Table 2: Private Industry Employment Trends, Dallas MSA, 2002-2007 ..................................... 6 Table 3: Private Industry Average Annual Wage Trends, Dallas County, 2002-2007 ................. 7 Table 4: Private Industry Average Annual Wage Trends, Dallas MSA, 2002-2007 ..................... 8 Table 5: Total Inventory, Select Submarkets, 1Q 2008 ................................................................ 9 Table 6: Office Trends, Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch Submarket, 2003-2007................... 9 Table 7: Office Trends, Plano/Allen Submarket, 2003-2007 ....................................................... 11 Table 8: Office Trends, Las Colinas Submarket, 2003-2007 .....................................................