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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Developing Iraq’s Security Sector The Coalition Provisional Authority’s Experience Andrew Rathmell, Olga Oliker, Terrence K. Kelly, David Brannan, Keith Crane Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Developing Iraq’s security sector : the Coalition Provisional Authority’s experience / Andrew Rathmell ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-365.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3823-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Civil defense—Iraq. 2. National security—Iraq. 3. Law enforcement—Iraq. 4. Police—Iraq. I. Rathmell, Andrew. UA929.I67D48 2005 355.4'9—dc22 2005017760 Cover photo courtesy Reuters/Landov. Mohammed Jalil, photographer. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This report is the concluding part of the RAND Corporation’s sup- port contract with the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), under which RAND was tasked to provide analyses on important policy issues. Because of the CPA’s dissolution on June 28, 2004, this report is provided to its successor organization, the U.S. Mission in Bagh- dad. This report will be of interest to U.S. and other government per- sonnel who are now engaged in making policy on Iraqi security and in supporting the development of the Iraqi security sector. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy (ISDP) Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development cen- ter sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified combatant commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intel- ligence Community. For more information on RAND’s ISDP Center, contact the director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at james_ [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. iii Contents Preface ...................................................................... iii Figures and Tables..........................................................vii Summary.................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ......................................................... xxi Abbreviations .............................................................xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction .................................................................1 The Scope and Focus of This Report ........................................3 Assessing Success in Security Sector Reconstruction and Reform ...........6 CHAPTER TWO Prewar Planning for the Iraqi Security Sector ..............................9 CHAPTER THREE Reforming Iraq’s Security Sector ......................................... 13 The Context ............................................................... 13 The Actors Responsible for Making and Implementing Policy ........ 15 Evolving Strategies ...................................................... 19 Elements of the Iraqi Security Sector ...................................... 22 National Security Institutions .......................................... 22 The Defense Sector ..................................................... 27 The Interior Ministry ................................................... 42 The Justice Sector....................................................... 56 Infrastructure Security .................................................. 60 v vi Developing Iraq’s Security Sector The Intelligence Services................................................ 61 Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration ..................... 65 CHAPTER FOUR Evaluating Security Sector Reform in Iraq ............................... 73 Evolution of the Security Situation, May 2003–June 2004 ............... 73 The Iraqi Security Sector at Transition .................................... 77 National Security Institutions .......................................... 77 The Defense Sector ..................................................... 78 The Interior Ministry ................................................... 79 Infrastructure Security .................................................. 80 The Justice Sector....................................................... 80 The Intelligence Services................................................ 81 Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration ..................... 81 Assessing Progress .......................................................... 82 Broader Lessons from the CPA’s Experience .............................. 83 Worst-Case and Contingency Planning ................................ 83 Structural Constraints on Rational Policy Development ............... 84 Mobilization of Funding and Personnel Inputs from Home Countries............................................................. 85 Balancing the Long-Term Goals of Institution-Building with the Short-Term Needs of Fielding Iraqi Security Forces ................ 86 Ensuring Iraqi Ownership of the Reform Process ...................... 86 Clarifying Long-Term Security Relationships .......................... 88 Conclusions and Prospects................................................. 88 Bibliography ............................................................... 93 Figures and Tables Figures 3.1. Iraqi Ministry of Defense Organization .......................... 29 3.2. Iraqi Ministry of Interior Approved Organization, November 2003................................................... 43 4.1. Iraqi Civilian and U.S. Casualties ................................ 75 Tables 4.1. Annualized Crime Rates per 100,000 Population ................ 75 vii Summary Soon after the coalition’s occupation of Iraq began in April 2003, it became evident that prewar assumptions about the security situation that would follow the ouster of Saddam Hussein had been unduly optimistic. The environment was not benign—in fact, it was deterio- rating. Iraqi security forces had largely disintegrated, and those that remained were incapable of responding to rising criminality and political violence. In this environment, the coalition confronted three security imperatives: (1) to restore order and neutralize insurgents and terrorists; (2) to rebuild Iraqi security forces, which could eventually take on responsibility for Iraq’s security; and (3) to build security sec- tor institutions, such as national security management institutions, the interior and defense ministries, and the justice sector, to ensure that the Iraqi security sector could be an effective