Vol. 21, No. 1 Kansas Wildlife, Parks & Tourism Spring, 2012 INSIDE... The Scientific World View 2 Don’t Miss Glossary of Climate Change 4 Our Next Climate Change 6 Issue: Energy Consumption in the US 7 Six Americas on Global Warming 8 A Guide to Evidence of Climate Change 10 Kansas Confronting Climate Change 14 ECO-Meets How We Know What We Know Book Review 17 Last Child In The Woods Book Review 18 The Scientific World View There has been a lot of talk about climate disproven if new evidence comes to light. In sci- change but not much agreement among policy ence, the testing and improving theories, even makers and citizens alike. Dispute hangs in the air occasionally discarding theories, goes on all the over even the most basic facts of this issue--that time. When someone comes up with a new or the world is warming and that human activity is the improved version of a theory that explains more dominant cause. Why? phenomena or answers more important questions Scientist have done a lousy job at commu- than the previous version, the new one eventually nicating the facts of this issue because of the takes its place. Theories are ultimately judged by understanding gap between what scientists say and their results. But, what theories are not, is a guess how the average American interprets what they say. or a hunch. When scientist propose a theory of cli- Too many Americans are not “scientific literate” mate change, they have volumes of information and scientific training actually works against the gathered and the theory proposed fits the informa- scientist when it comes to communication. Words tion at hand with the best possible correlation. that seem perfectly common to scientists may seem Scientific knowledge is durable and modi- like jargon to the public. Worse yet, scientists use fying ideas (rather than outright rejection) is the many words that mean something very different to norm in science. Science, however, cannot provide much of the public. complete answers to all ques- Take the word “theory” for As used in science, a tions. Some matters cannot be example. To most people, a “theory” is theory is an explanation usefully examined in a scientific just a hunch, or an opinion, or even or model based on obser- way, such as beliefs of the exis- just speculation. Someone may have a tence of supernatural powers or “theory” about why their car died but vation, experimentation, beings. Beliefs, by their very they are actually using the word theory and reasoning. nature, cannot be proved or dis- to mean “hypothesis”. “Theory” to a proved. scientist means something very different. Sooner or later, the truth of a scientific As used in science, a theory is an explana- claim is settled by referring to observations of phe- tion or model based on observation, experimenta- nomenon. Science always demands evidence and tion, and reasoning, especially one that has been scientists concentrate on getting accurate data. To tested and confirmed as a general principle helping make their observations, scientists use their own to explain and predict natural phenomena. A theory senses, instruments to enhance those senses, or explains an entire group of related phenomena. instruments that can detect senses humans can’t Einstein’s theory of relativity or Darwin’s theory of (such as magnetic fields). The essence of science is evolution explain the observations made by many validation by observation. But it is not enough for different scientists, not just one, and fit the facts scientific theories to only fit what is already observed to date. The theory of climate change known. Theories should also fit additional observa- increased by human activity is an explanation tions that were not used in formulating the theories based on observations and experimentation to in the first place. That is to say that theories should explain and predict this phenomena. have predictive powers. This is not always about Let’s not forget what “science” really is. predicting events of the future but it can apply to Science is a process for producing knowledge. The events of the past such as the building of moun- process depends both on making careful observa- tains or the origins of human beings. tions and deriving theories for making sense out of In the end, it should be remembered that those observations. It is possible for a theory to be what we are striving for is a “scientific literate” On T.R.A.C.K.S. 2 America to understand the complexity of the global we predict climate 50 years from now? Weather is challenges ahead. Science for All Americans defines a the state of the atmosphere at a specific time and science literate person as one who: with respect to its effect on life and human activities. It is the short term variations of the atmosphere, as is familiar with the natural world. opposed to the long term, or climatic, changes. Climate is the historical record and description of understands some of the key concepts and average daily and in seasonal weather events that principles of science and has a capacity for help describe a region. Statistics are generally drawn scientific ways of thinking over several decades. Climate is a statistical average that is predictable based on large-scale forces, while is aware of some of the important ways in weather is subject to chaotic forces that make it diffi- which mathematics, technology, and science cult to predict. (Definition from The Weather depend on one another. Channel for Kids, www.weatherchannelforkids.com) So, hasn’t climate always changed ? Yes it knows that science, mathematics, and technol has but to use the argument that this current warming ogy are human enterprises and what that is only natural is to use the flawed logic that because implies about their strength and weaknesses. lightning strikes cause forest fires, forest fires cannot also be caused by careless campers. There are many is able to use scientific knowledge and ways lines of evidence that show that the current warming of thinking for personal and social purposes. is due primarily to human activity. Is global warming responsible for recent While this is a worthy goal, we must recog- streaks of floods, heat waves, wildfires, and hurri- nize we are not there in our understanding of science canes? The science suggests that it is. We have with the average American. Let’s go back to re-exam- “loaded” the atmosphere with excess greenhouse ine some basic scientific words related to climate gases, therefore, we are loading the dice towards change and how they are generally viewed. more of these extreme events. The data shows this is The word “enhanced” to lay people sounds already occurring for many phenomena and models good as in to make better or improve but in the dis- have long projected these changes. cussion about climate change, an “enhanced” green- Climate change is not a debate. For people to house effect means to intensify. Not a good thing. take climate change seriously and support appropri- Positive to most people means good and neg- ate responses, people need to feel sure it is happen- ative means bad but when climate scientists talk ing and it is caused primarily by humans. The rise in about positive feedbacks in the greenhouse effect this global temperatures is a fact (see, e.g. Intergovern- is an upward trend and an increase in the effect. Not mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)[2007], usually a good thing. which calls the warming “unequivcal”). IPCC, 2007 Risk usually means something that might hap- and American Association for the Advancement of pen but is not likely, such as a person’s house burn- Science, 2006 along with other authoritative scientif- ing down. Global warming is not a risk but a reality. ic bodies, have attributed most of the warming of the Uncertainty generally means we do not know if past 50 years to human activity. Yet, people still something will happen, so uncertainty about global believe there is a debate among scientists and only warming is taken to mean it might not happen at all. 41% of Americans believe humanity is the primary This is not what the scientists mean. They mean there cause of global warming. is a range of possible warming, depending on the Our task is to become scientific literate and level of emissions and how sensitive the climate is to realize what is fact and contrast that with sensation- the emissions. alism by the media and political agendas. The words How about weather verses climate? What is of science have very specific meanings and they are the difference? People often complain that we can’t not used lightly. Beware of the “psuedo-science” of- predict the weather two weeks from now so how can ten spouted in political agendas and media frenzies. On T.R.A.C.K.S. 3 Glossary of Climate Change Carbon Dioxide (CO2): A colorless, odorless gas that naturally exists in the earth's atmosphere. The major source of manmade CO2 emissions is from the combustion of fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide is the pri- mary greenhouse gas and is known to contribute to global warming and climate change. Carbon Footprint: The measure of the impact human activities have on the environment in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases produced, measured in units of carbon dioxide. Climate Change:According to the EPA, climate change refers “to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer).” Composting: A process whereby organic wastes—food, paper, and yard wastes—decompose naturally, resulting in a product rich in minerals and ideal for gardening and farming as a soil conditioner, mulch, resurfacing material, or landfill cover.