ADAPTIVE WASHINGTON MANAGEMENT and the OREGON NORTHWEST FOREST PLAN Rhetoric and Reality CALIFORNIA George H. Stankey, Bernard T. Bormann, Clare Ryan, Bruce Shindler, Victoria Sturtevant, Roger N. Clark, and Charles Philpot Adaptive management represents a process to use management policies as a source of learn- management in the Northwest Forest ing, which in turn can inform subsequent actions. However, despite its appealing and appar- Plan (ROD 1994). Based on a review ently straightforward objectives, examples of successful implementation remain elusive, and of the literature and organizational a review of efforts to implement an adaptive approach in the Northwest Forest Plan proves the documents, along with interviews with point. Barriers include an institutional and regulatory environment that stymies innovation, managers and researchers, we report on increasing workloads coupled with declining resources that constrain learning-based factors affecting efforts to incorporate approaches, and a lack of leadership. The time is right to learn from experiences and consider an adaptive approach and suggest steps alternatives. to facilitate implementation. ABSTRACT Keywords: endangered species; Pacific Northwest; policy; USDA Forest Service Theory and Application Despite the attention adaptive man- agement has attracted, questions per- lthough adaptive management 1993), examples of successful imple- has attracted growing attention mentation remain elusive (Walters A by scholars and practitioners 1997). This article reports on an evalu- Figure 1. The Adaptive Management Area (Holling 1978; Walters 1986; Lee ation of efforts to implement adaptive system. 40 Journal of Forestry • January/February 2003 sist regarding the ability to implement are, in fact, preferable to experimenta- 1993, p. ii) and that were consistent such an approach (Walters 1997). tion as a way to protect endangered with applicable laws and regulations, What does an adaptive management values. Moreover, a consequence of the such as the Endangered Species Act approach imply? Our literature review failure to act adaptively in the presence (ESA). The FEMAT team focused at- revealed three key ideas, along with of uncertainty is that potential learning tention on the federal lands of western several persistent critiques. which might better inform future ac- Oregon and Washington and northern First, adaptive management treats tions is foregone. California, an area of approximately 24 actions and policies as experiments that Third, effective adaptive manage- million acres. yield learning. An adaptive approach ment involves three elements: (1) pro- The eventual selected alternative— mimics the scientific method: It speci- ducing new understanding, based on the Northwest Forest Plan—was fies hypotheses, highlights uncertain- systematic assessment of feedback from grounded in the principles of conser- ties, structures actions to expose hy- management actions; (2) incorporating vation biology, emphasizing risk potheses to field tests, processes and that knowledge into subsequent ac- avoidance to the region’s environmen- evaluates results, and adjusts subse- tions; and (3) creating venues in which tal system in the short term (ROD quent actions in light of those results. understanding can be communicated 1994). The plan’s system of terrestrial In an adaptive approach, actions and (McLain and Lee 1996). However, the and riparian reserves, when combined policies are undertaken based on the adaptive management literature reports with existing congressionally reserved best available knowledge and they are only modest achievements in any of areas (e.g., national parks) and other implemented in such a way as to pro- these elements. For example, the asym- administratively withdrawn areas, em- duce new understanding that can in- metry between the economic, political, braced nearly 80 percent of the plan- form subsequent actions. and personal costs of experimentation ning region. In addition, a suite of However, despite learning’s central (often immediate and obvious) and the standards and guidelines further re- role in adaptive management, there is benefits (often displaced to the future stricted management activities and de- little agreement in the literature as to and problematic) can act to suppress velopment, even in areas outside the when learning has occurred. For exam- investments in knowledge acquisition reserves. ple, what criteria might be used to as- and distribution. FEMAT’s mission statement, how- sess whether the results of an adaptive Although the literature provides ever, acknowledged that the uncertain- policy constituted new understanding ample evidence that adaptive manage- ties facing forest managers, fostered by and the basis for a revised policy, or ment can offer important benefits for the complexity of the scientific issues simply were an idiosyncratic outcome? dealing with complexity and uncer- and the ambiguity of the political set- Confusing chance variation with actual tainty, it also identifies formidable bar- ting, would require an adaptive ap- treatment effects could significantly riers standing between the concept’s proach: confound efforts to understand com- potential and on-the-ground imple- plex systems and develop appropriate mentation. In light of this, we were Your assessment should include and responsive policies (Bednar and concerned with assessing the progress suggestions for adaptive management Shainsky 1996). achieved through adaptive manage- that would identify high priority in- ventory, research, and monitoring Second, rather than treating risk ment in implementation of the North- needed to assess success over time and and uncertainty as a reason for precau- west Forest Plan. essential or allowable modifications in tion, adaptive management embraces approach as new information becomes them as opportunities for building un- FEMAT and the Northwest Forest Plan available. (FEMAT 1993, p. iii) derstanding that might ultimately re- The gridlock behind President duce their occurrence. As experiences Clinton’s 1993 forest conference in The plan further emphasized an in bioregional assessments confirm, the Portland, Oregon, was grounded in adaptive approach by allocating 10 management of complex biophysical conflicts associated with pressures to Adaptive Management Areas (AMA) and socioeconomic systems inevitably protect old-growth forests and associ- (fig. 1), covering about 1.5 million involves risk and uncertainty (Johnson ated species (such as the northern spot- acres, or 6 percent of the planning area, et al. 1999). Typically, such conditions ted owl) on the one hand, and, on the across the three-state region “to en- trigger calls for caution or, in some other, the social and economic impacts courage the development and testing of cases, no action until more is known. associated with declining timber har- technical and social approaches to However, acting in a risk-averse man- vests. The Forest Ecosystem Manage- achieving desired ecological, economic, ner can suppress the experimental poli- ment Assessment Team (FEMAT), cre- and other social objectives” and to help cies and actions needed to produce un- ated in response to these concerns, was agencies “learn how to manage on an derstanding that will reduce risk and asked “to identify management alterna- ecosystem basis in terms of both tech- uncertainty. Ironically, under condi- tives that would attain the greatest eco- nical and social challenges” (ROD tions of uncertainty, it is problematic as nomic and social contribution from 1994, p. 6). to whether such minimalist approaches the forests of the region” (FEMAT Given this evolutionary and knowl- January/February 2003 • Journal of Forestry 41 AMAs were outlined. Other interview Table 1. Adaptive management interview sample. participants included the Region 6 re- Interviewee category Number of interviews (N = 50) Percent gional forester, Pacific Northwest Sta- tion director, former Pacific Southwest AMA coordinators 19 38 Station director, the Forest Service Na- AMA lead scientists 8 16 Policymakers 5 10 tional Adaptive Management Coordi- Line officers 7 14 nator, and the head of the Regional FEMAT Chapter 8 authors 3 6 Ecosystem Office (REO). REO staff 2 4 Interviews lasted from one-half to Other (citizens, academics) 6 12 three hours. Each respondent could de- cline to answer any question and could end the interview at any time during edge-driven strategy, adaptive manage- vides a brief overview of this approach. the process (none did). Interviews in ment represented more than a tactic or A qualitative approach is useful for Washington State, southern Oregon, allocation; it was the cornerstone to the issues in which variables are not clearly and northern California were audio- plan’s long-term success (Pipkin 1998). identified, theories need to be devel- taped with approval of the respondents. Adaptive management complemented oped, a detailed view of a topic is The remaining interviews were docu- the precautionary short-term strategy needed, or the study requires that indi- mented by extensive written notes. by offering a long-term strategy focused viduals be studied in a “natural” setting The audiotapes and interview notes on expanding knowledge of the under- (Creswell 1998). In a qualitative study, were transcribed and reviewed until lying biophysical system and its interac- research often begins with “what” or themes became apparent. These tion with the social and economic sys- “how” questions. This study was themes were compared to