National Electors Study on the 43rd Canadian Federal General Election Methodology Report Prepared for: Elections Canada June 2020 Supplier name: Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. / Advanis Contract number: 05005-18-0735 Contract value: $804,353.60 (incl. applicable sales tax) Award date: April 12, 2019 Delivery date: June 26, 2020 For more information on this report, contact Elections Canada at [email protected]. Ce rapport est aussi disponible en français. Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. 1678 Bank Street, Ste. 2 Ottawa, ON K1V 7Y6 www.phoenixspi.ca 43rd General Election: National Electors Study Methodology Report National Electors Study on the 43rd Canadian Federal General Election: Methodology Report Prepared for Elections Canada Supplier name: Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. / Advanis June 2020 This report describes the research methodology of the National Electors Study conducted to help evaluate the October 21, 2019 federal election. This publication may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes only. Prior written permission must be obtained from Elections Canada. For more information on this report, contact Elections Canada at [email protected]. Catalogue number: SE3-114/1-2020E-PDF International Standard Book Number (ISBN): 978-0-660-35825-3 Related publications: Catalogue number: SE3-114/1-2020F-PDF (Final report, French) International Standard Book Number (ISBN): 978-0-660-35826-0 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Prime Minister of Canada, 2020 Cette publication est aussi disponible en français sous le titre : Étude nationale auprès des électeurs pour la 43e élection générale canadienne – Rapport de méthodologie. 43rd General Election: National Electors Study Methodology Report Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 Quantitative Research ............................................................................................................... 1 Sampling .............................................................................................................................. 1 Longi tudi nal Sampl e .................................................................................................................................................... 1 Discrete Sample ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Subpopulati ons ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 Incentives ............................................................................................................................ 4 Questionnaires ..................................................................................................................... 4 Pretest................................................................................................................................. 5 Fieldwork ............................................................................................................................. 6 Fielding Procedures ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 Election Period Rolling Cross-Sec ti on......................................................................................................................... 7 Outcome Rates ..................................................................................................................... 8 Probability Sa mpl es ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 Non-probability Sa mpl e ............................................................................................................................................10 Potential for Non-Res pons e Bias..............................................................................................................................11 Margin of Error ....................................................................................................................11 Data Production ...................................................................................................................11 Quali ty Control...........................................................................................................................................................11 Coding.........................................................................................................................................................................11 Weighting ...................................................................................................................................................................12 Integrati on of Probabili ty and Non-probabili ty Sampl es........................................................................................14 Qualitative Research.................................................................................................................15 Recruitment ........................................................................................................................15 Discussion Guide ..................................................................................................................16 Data Collection ....................................................................................................................16 Honorarium.........................................................................................................................16 Appendices..............................................................................................................................17 Quantitative Research Instruments .........................................................................................17 Recruitment Script.....................................................................................................................................................17 Wa ve 1 Q ues ti onnaire...............................................................................................................................................21 Wave 2 Questionnaire...............................................................................................................................................45 Wave 3a Questionnaire.............................................................................................................................................70 Wave 3b Ques tionnai re ......................................................................................................................................... 113 Qualitative Research Instruments ......................................................................................... 150 Recruitment Screener ............................................................................................................................................ 150 Moderator’s Guide ................................................................................................................................................. 161 Test Materials .................................................................................................................... 169 43rd General Election: National Electors Study Introduction Elections Canada (EC) is the independent, non-partisan agency responsible for conducting Canadian federal elections. In the context of the 43rd federal general election (GE) held on October 21, 2019, EC conducted the 2019 National Electors Study (NES) in order to measure electors’ attitudes and experiences of the GE and inform evaluation and development of EC’s programs and services to electors. The NES consisted of two components: 1) a national longitudinal survey of electors conducted between June and December 2019, and 2) a series of post-election focus groups and interviews. This report provides a description of the methodologies: first for the quantitative component of the NES, and then for the qualitative component. Quantitative Research The survey component of the NES was conducted by telephone and online with eligible electors (i.e. Canadian citizens at least 18 years of age on election day), and involved three waves of surveys conducted before, during, and after the election period. The table below presents technical information about each wave of surveying: Wave Sample Mode of Data Collection Field Period Sample Size W1 Longi tudinal Online, telephone Pre-election: June 12 to July 14, 2019 49,993 W2 Longi tudinal Online Election period: September 3 to October 23,880 20, 2019 W3a Longi tudinal Online, telephone Post-election: October 23 to December 19,435 9, 2019 W3b Discrete Telephone Post-election: October 22 to November 2,000 12, 2019 Detailed information is provided below. Sampling The NES survey component included both longitudinal and discrete samples. The longitudinal sample was recruited for the pre-election survey (W1) in June 2019 using probability sampling (random-digit dial phone recruitment) and non-probability sampling (web panel). The discrete random sample was recruited for the post-election survey wave to offset attrition in the longitudinal sample. Random-digit dial probability sampling was used to collect the discrete