This document is Not for Publication - On-going Research This document is Not for Publication - On-going Research East Coast - Scotland: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1 Strategic Dimension .............................................................................. 11 2 Introduction .................................................................................. 11 3 The Case for Change ...................................................................... 26 4 The Need for Intervention ............................................................. 74 5 Wider Context ................................................................................ 77 6 Option Assessment Process ........................................................... 80 7 Strategic Dimension Summary ....................................................... 98 Economic Dimension ............................................................................. 99 8 Introduction .................................................................................. 99 9 Approach to Cost Estimation ........................................................ 107 10 Quantified SDC Programme Impacts ............................................ 110 11 Economy Impacts ........................................................................ 119 12 Environment Impacts................................................................... 121 13 Social Impacts ............................................................................. 126 14 Public Accounts Impacts .............................................................. 131 15 Value for Money ........................................................................... 134 Financial Dimension ............................................................................ 144 16 Introduction ................................................................................ 144 17 Implementation Funding Requirement ........................................ 145 18 Operational Life Funding Requirement ......................................... 148 Commercial Dimension ....................................................................... 150 19 Introduction ................................................................................ 150 October 2019 | i East Coast - Scotland: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC 20 Approach to Procurement ............................................................ 150 21 Next Steps ................................................................................... 157 Management Dimension ...................................................................... 158 22 Introduction ................................................................................ 158 23 Programme Governance ............................................................... 158 24 Programme Lifecycle and Sequencing .......................................... 161 25 Stakeholder Management and Communications ........................... 162 26 Risk and Opportunities Management ........................................... 164 27 Monitoring and Evaluation ........................................................... 166 28 Management Dimension Summary ............................................... 168 Glossary .............................................................................................. 169 Figures Figure 1.1: TfN Strategic Development Corridors ................................... 5 Figure 1.2: East Coast to Scotland SDC Study Area ................................ 7 Figure 1.3: The Three Phases of the Decision Making Process .................. 8 Figure 2.1: TfN's Key Pan-Northern Objectives .................................... 13 Figure 2.2: Emerging vision for the Northern Powerhouse Rail Network ... 23 Figure 3.1: Prime Capabilities in East Coast – Scotland SDC .................. 29 Figure 3.2: Relative Productivity of major centres within the East Coast - Scotland SDC, North of England and other parts of the UK (GVA per head index 2015) ................................................................................... 32 Figure 3.3: Proportion of working age population with NVQA+ qualifications in 2017(Regions within the East Coast – Scotland SDC are highlighted red) ................................................................................................... 33 Figure 3.4: Skills demand UK by region .............................................. 34 Figure 3.5: Weighted average total distance travelled by rail per person per year by NPIER Capability in England .................................................. 35 Figure 3.6: Transport interventions and economic performance.............. 37 Figure 3.7: Travel to Work movements -All Modes (2011 Census Data) ... 40 October 2019 | ii East Coast - Scotland: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Figure 3.8: Daily Traffic Volumes on the TfN Major Road Network ........... 42 Figure 3.9: Intercity and Interurban Services Average Speed Map .......... 44 Figure 3.10: Total Visitor spend ........................................................ 49 Figure 3.11: TfN’s Major Road Network (MRN) .................................... 54 Figure 3.12: Passenger journeys in the North...................................... 55 Figure 3.13: 2016 to 2050 Difference in Rail Cargo Tonnes in East Coast - Scotland SDC ................................................................................ 57 Figure 3.14: 2016 to 2050 Difference in Road Cargo Tonnes in East Coast – Scotland SDC ................................................................................ 58 Figure 3.15: GVA change (000s) 2015-2050 for East Coast – Scotland SDC ................................................................................................... 62 Figure 3.16: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) Deciles within Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) along the East Coast – Scotland SDC .......... 64 Figure 3.17: Annual Passenger Movements and Percentage of UK Total ... 67 Figure 3.18: Newcastle Airport Business/Hub Destinations .................... 68 Figure 3.19: UK Major Ports – Domestic and International Annual Freight Tonnage ....................................................................................... 70 Figure 6.1: Staged Approach to Pan-Northern transport scheme identification .................................................................................. 80 Figure 6.2: Long list to option assessment process .............................. 81 Figure 6.3: East Coast – Scotland SDC Road Reference Case and SOP Proposals ...................................................................................... 91 Figure 6.4: East Coast – Scotland SDC Rail SOP Proposals .................... 92 Figure 6.5: East Coast - Scotland Rail SOP Proposals ........................... 93 Figure 6.6: Rail SOP proposals across the Pan-Northern Strategic Development Corridors .................................................................... 94 Figure 6.7: Rail Reference Case Interventions across the Pan-Northern Strategic Development Corridors ...................................................... 95 Figure 8.1: East Coast – Scotland SDC Road Reference Case and appraised SOP Proposals .............................................................................. 103 Figure 9.1: Estimation of Costs for Appraisal ...................................... 109 Figure 10.1: AM 2050 SOP Flows - 2050 Reference Case Flows (Passenger Car Units, PCU) ............................................................................. 113 Figure 10.2: IP 2050 SOP Flows - 2050 Reference Case Flows (PCU) ..... 114 Figure 10.3: PM 2050 SOP Flows - 2050 Reference Case Flows (PCU) .... 115 Figure 10.4: Distribution of Benefits ................................................. 116 October 2019 | iii East Coast - Scotland: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Figure 13.1: Distributional Impacts .................................................. 128 Figure 20.1: Investment programme development process .................. 155 Figure 20.2: Example from Trans-Pennine Tunnel Study (HE/TfN/DfT) ... 156 Figure 23.1: SDC Governance Structure ............................................ 159 Figure 24.1: High-level delivery programme ...................................... 162 Figure 26.1: TfN's Risk Management Process ..................................... 165 Tables Table 2.1: DfT’s Transport Investment Strategy Objectives ................... 16 Table 2.2: Reference case parameters and assumptions ....................... 24 Table 2.3: Reference Case: List of interventions (Road/Rail) .................. 25 Table 3.1 Passenger movements in 2018 at Northern airports................ 67 Table 4.1: SDC Sub-objectives ......................................................... 76 Table 6.1: Assessment scoring scale .................................................. 84 Table 6.2: Strategic Outline Programme of Interventions ...................... 87 Table 8.1: Appraisal of Strategic Outline Programme of Road Interventions .................................................................................................. 102 Table 8.2: Appraisal of Strategic Outline Programme of Pan- Northern Rail Interventions ................................................................................ 104 Table 10.1: Scope of Economic Assessment for East Coast SDC ............ 118 Table 11.1: Business User Impact ...................................................