Ontario Politics in the time of Public Opinion Research Release Date: April 20, 2021 COVID-19 Field Dates: April 15, 2021 to April 20, 2021 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Ontario Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In Ontario, the impression voters have of Doug Ford has remained negative after a large drop in early April. Looking more closely at results since the latest round of restrictions were announced, satisfaction with the Ford government is down, and the share of Ontarians who think he is the best choice for Premier has fallen to only 24%, only 3-points ahead of Andrea Horwath. Now the Ontario Liberals lead on vote by 4-points over the Ontario PCs, with the NDP trailing in a close third. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from the third week of our April 2021 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from April 15th to April 20th with a weighted sample size of 800 Ontario residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how Ontarians rate their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, Ontario vote choice, and evaluation of party leaders. Read, Seen, Heard Attention to the Ontario government is up to the highest point since tracking began with 81% saying they have heard something recently. The net impact of what Ontarians have heard remains strongly negative. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Ontario Read, Seen, Heard: More than 4-in-5 have heard something 4 about Doug Ford recently; nearly half say it left them less favourable Have you read, seen or heard anything about Doug Ford in the last few Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [asked of all respondents; n=800] favourable towards Doug Ford, or did it make no difference? [Asked of those who have RSH; n=646] 81% A lot less favourable 27% Less Favourable: 48% Somewhat less favourable 21% Made no difference 30% 19% Somewhat more favourable 15% More Favourable: A lot more favourable 6% 21% No Yes Current data: April 2021 Current 2021 Aprildata: Note: reached the highest point since tracking began tracking since point the highest reached Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, 28% 67% Don't shown.notknow Dec-15 n=800] respondents; all of [asked about anything heard orseen read, you Have Apr-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Doug Ford Doug Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 days? few last in the Nov-18 has government theOntario to Attention Dec-18 Jan-19 Yes Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 No Apr-19 (2) May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Apr-21 (2) 19% 81% 5 Current 2021 Aprildata: Note: Ontarians have read remains strongly negative strongly remains read have Ontarians Tracking: Impact Heard, Seen, Read, Ontario 7% 17% 32% 13% 30% Don't shown.notknow Dec-15 [asked of those who have RSH; n=646]RSH; have who those of [asked Ford Doug a more lot feeling you leave hear see or read, you what Did Apr-16 Jan-17 A lot more favourable more A lot Feb-17 Apr-17 difference? no it did make or , May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Somewhat more favourable more Somewhat Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 favourable Dec-18 Made no no difference Made Jan-19 Feb-19 , somewhat more more somewhat , Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 favourable Somewhat less favourable Somewhat Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 The impact of what of what The impact Jan-20 less somewhat , Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 favourable Jul-20 A lot less favourable less A lot Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 less lot a or Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 favourable Mar-21 Apr-21 Apr-21 (2) 6% 15% 30% 21% 27% towards towards 6 Read, Seen, Heard: Attention to Doug Ford rose after the latest 7 announcements, and negative reactions rose as well Have you read, seen or heard anything about Doug Ford in the last few days? AND Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Doug Ford, or did it make no difference? [asked of all respondents; n=800] Before Friday’s After Friday’s Announcements Announcements (N=371) (N=429) Yes 78% 83% No 22% 17% Doug Ford Heard aboutHeard Before Friday’s After Friday’s Announcements Announcements (N=289) (N=357) A lot more favourable 6% 7% Somewhat more favourable 18% 14% Made no difference 32% 28% Impact Somewhat less favourable 20% 22% A lot less favourable 25% 29% Government Approval Ontario government’s satisfaction remains low with a majority of Ontarians dissatisfied with their government (54%) after a steep decline between March and April. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Ontario Government Satisfaction: A majority (54%) of Ontarians are 9 dissatisfied with the Ontario government Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in Ontario? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=800] Satisfied: 43% Dissatisfied: 54% 34% 30% 24% 9% 3% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Current data: April 2021 Current data: April 2021 Current April data: is steady since early April with more dissatisfied than satisfied dissatisfied with more earlyApril since steady is Government 3% 36% 27% 34% Mar-12 [asked of all respondents; n=800] respondents; all of [asked in government the PROVINCIAL of performance with the you are satisfied speaking, how Generally Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 May-14 Dec-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Very satisfied Very Feb-17 Apr-17 Satisfaction May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Jan-18 government majority PCs form Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 2018:June May-18 Tracking: Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Satisfaction with the Ontario gov’t theOntario with Satisfaction Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Very dissatisfied Very Sep-19 Nov-19 Ontario Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 are...? you say you Would ? Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Don't know Don't Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Apr-21 (2) 9% 34% 24% 30% 3% 10 Government Satisfaction: Dissatisfaction rose from 51% to 58% after 11 Ford announced new restrictions Generally speaking how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in Ontario? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=800] Before Friday’s After Friday’s Announcements Announcements (N=371) (N=429) Very satisfied 9% 9% Somewhat 38% 31% satisfied Somewhat 21% 27% dissatisfied Very dissatisfied 30% 31% Satisfaction with with the Satisfaction Provincial Government Provincial Don’t know 3% 3% COVID-19 Handling: More than half disapprove of the way the Ontario 12 government has handled the pandemic Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Ontario government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=800] Disapprove: 55% Approve: 33% 30% 26% 25% 11% 7% 1% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: April 2021 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Approval of the way the government is 13 handling the pandemic is steady since early April Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Ontario government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=800] 4% 1% 10% 30% 17% 18% 25% 11% 39% 26% 12% 7% Jul-20 Jan-21 Jun-20 Oct-20 Apr-20 Apr-21 Sep-20 Feb-21 Dec-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Mar-20 Mar-21 May-20 Jun-20 (2) Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) Apr-21 (2) Mar-20 (2) Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: April 2021 COVID-19 Handling: Approval of Ontario’s handling of the pandemic 14 fell from 36% to 30% after the latest measures Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Ontario Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=800] Before Friday’s After Friday’s Announcements Announcements (N=371) (N=429) Strongly approve 5% 8% 19 Somewhat approve 31% 22% - Neither approve nor 11% 11% disapprove Somewhat 23% 27% disapprove Handling Handling of COVID Strongly disapprove 28% 32% Approval of the Province’s of the Province’s Approval Don’t know 1% 0% Restrictions In Ontario only, a majority (51%) continue to say they governments do not have a plan and they are making things up as they go. However, support for the province wide stay at home order remains high.