Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Area Action Partnership areas Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the fourteen Area Action Partnership (AAP) areas to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership and Clinical Commissioning areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by AAP area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the AAP areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to 2017. Map 1: Area Action Partnerships areas covering County Durham County Council Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people. 9. All AAP areas, except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Durham AAP of 16.8%/9,812 people and the Derwent Valley AAP with growth of 15.5%/6,239 people. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 5.0%/935 people over the same period. 10. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the Derwent Valley AAP (645 more children, 8.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (495 children, 8.3% rise). 11. Eight of the fourteen AAP areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in the 4 Together AAP (677 fewer children, 18.2% fall) and the Teesdale AAP (662 fewer children, 15.5% fall). The East Durham AAP had the largest fall in its number of children will a fall of 2,098 children, a fall of 10.9%. 12. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing decreases in the 0 to 15 age group has fallen from eight to five areas with the East Durham AAP seeing a small rise in this period of 0.2%. 13. Nine of the fourteen AAP areas have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001. However since 2011 only the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP have seen an increase in this group, with increases of 4.8% and 1.4% respectively. 14. Similar to the county and the other sub-county areas all fourteen AAPs have had an increase in the 65+ age group since 2001. The largest percentage increase was in the Weardale AAP (in part due to small numbers) which increased by 53.0%, an increase of 820 people. However the largest increase in number was in the Durham AAP with an increase of 3,879/46.7% people aged 65 and over since 2001. 15. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the 85+ population in the Great Aycliffe and Middridge nearly trebling between 2001 and 2017, rising from 246 to 675 people, an increase of 172.8%. East Durham AAP has the largest number of people aged 85+ with 2,039 people. Population change by AAP Area Age group: Overall 16. All AAP areas except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 5.0%/935 people. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1. Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by AAP area. 120% Durham AAP Derwent Valley AAP 115% 3 Towns Partnership AAP Spennymoor AAP Stanley AAP 110% East Durham Rural AAP County Durham 105% Mid Durham AAP Weardale AAP % change from 2001 base 2001 from % change 100% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Teesdale AAP 95% Chester-le-Street & District AAP East Durham AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 90% 2001 Base 2003 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4 Together Partnership AAP 17. The majority of growth has been in the Derwent Valley AAP and Durham AAP areas with increases of 15.5% and 16.8% respectively with the 4 Together AAP showing the highest percentage decrease of 5.0% over the same period. 18. Since 2011 the highest growth has been in the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP areas with growth of 7.4% and 5.9% respectively with the other areas seeing smaller increases or very small decreases (in the cases of 4 Together, East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP and Weardale AAP with falls of 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively). Table 1 below summarises some of these changes Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 3 Towns Partnership AAP 22,588 24,853 25,204 2,616 351 11.6% 1.4% 4 Together Partnership AAP 18,564 17,660 17,629 -935 -31 -5.0% -0.2% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 41,367 42,258 42,760 1,393 502 3.4% 1.2% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 53,679 54,116 54,326 647 210 1.2% 0.4% Derwent Valley AAP 40,287 44,951 46,526 6,239 1,575 15.5% 3.5% Durham AAP 58,467 63,565 68,279 9,812 4,714 16.8% 7.4% East Durham AAP 92,688 93,626 93,474 786 -152 0.8% -0.2% East Durham Rural AAP 23,853 25,331 25,882 2,030 552 8.5% 2.2% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 26,697 26,954 26,824 127 -130 0.5% -0.5% Mid Durham AAP 31,973 32,821 33,710 1,737 889 5.4% 2.7% Spennymoor AAP 20,055 20,730 21,955 1,899 1,224 9.5% 5.9% Stanley AAP 30,990 32,769 33,734 2,744 965 8.9% 2.9% Teesdale AAP 24,459 25,009 25,017 558 8 2.3% 0.0% Weardale AAP 8,023 8,351 8,342 320 -8 4.0% -0.1% County Durham 493,689 512,994 523,662 29,973 10,668 6.1% 2.1% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644,727 104,627 48,327 4.1% 1.9% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573,695 12.2% 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates Age group: 0 to 15 19. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the Derwent Valley AAP (645 more children, 8.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (495 children, 8.3% rise). The largest percentage fall in this group was in the 4 Together AAP with a fall of 18.2%/677 children while in the East Durham AAP this group has fallen by 2,098 children since 2001, a fall of 10.9%. Figure 2: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by AAP area. 110% Stanley AAP Derwent Valley AAP 105% 3 Towns Partnership AAP Spennymoor AAP Durham AAP 100% East Durham Rural AAP 2001 Base 95% County Durham Mid Durham AAP % change from 2001 base 2001 from % change 90% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Weardale AAP 85% East Durham AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 80% Teesdale AAP 2003 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4 Together Partnership AAP 20. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing an increase in their child population increased to nine with three areas seeing a slight reversal to the longer term trend of decline. The Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 0.7% since 2011 compared to a longer term decline of 7.7%, in the Mid Durham AAP there was an increase of 2.1% short term and decline of 5.6% long term and in the East Durham Rural AAP there was growth of 0.2% short term compared to a decline of 10.9% long term. 21. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.2% of the county total population.