Issue 132 July 2019 Contents The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people who are Part 1: Summary 1 unemployed and claiming benefits. From 1996 until the recent introduction A summary of of Universal Credit, this was based on the number of people claiming unemployment data at Jobseeker’s Allowance. However, since its introduction some unemployment district, County, regional benefit claimants will be claiming Universal Credit instead. To reflect this and national level change, the Claimant Count has been expanded to include people claiming Part 2: County 3 Jobseeker's Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and who are Unemployment figures for searching for work. the County compared to the South West and the rest of the UK Gloucestershire is in the process of transitioning to full Universal Credit. This means a broader span of claimants will be required to look for work than Part 3: Districts 4 A comparative break down previously under Jobseekers Allowance. As more people are brought within of unemployment figures by the coverage of Universal Credit, the Claimant Count is set to rise noticeably district over time. This will happen irrespective of how the economy performs and is Part 4: Wards a feature of the design of Universal Credit which brings additional groups of Further breakdown of people into ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality (and therefore the Claimant unemployment figures by Count), to help encourage and support these claimants into work. ward: Cheltenham 6 For more information about Universal Credit please see the ONS website. Cotswolds 8 Forest of Dean 10 INTRODUCTION Gloucester 12 The Unemployment Bulletin provides a monthly update on Stroud 14 unemployment data for Gloucestershire, the South West region and Tewkesbury 16 the United Kingdom. It is produced by the Data & Analysis Team in the County Council’s Planning, Performance and Change function. The Part 5: Map 18 Distribution of claimant rate data are sourced from the Office for National Statistics via Nomis across Gloucestershire (www.nomis.co.uk). All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming JSA, and Part 6: Youth 20 Unemployment the number of people claiming Universal Credit required to seek work, Unemployment data for the due to independent rounding. 18-24 year old age group Part 7: Young People 21 Data about Young People PART 1: SUMMARY Not in Education, Employment or Training The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 1.9% in July 2019. The (NEET) South West rate remained the same as last month at 2.0%, while the UK rate increased to 2.8%. Gloucestershire’s rate was 0.1% lower than the South West average of 2.0%, and 0.9% lower than the UK average of 2.8%. Produced by: The claimant count in Gloucestershire in July 2019 increased by 185 Data & Analysis Team Planning, Performance and Change people. The amount of people claiming in July 2019 was 2.6% higher Gloucestershire County Council than the number in June 2019. This compares to a 1.1% increase in August 2019 the South West and a 1.9% increase for the UK. Unemployment Bulletin Page 2 DISTRICTS AT A GLANCE At a glance unemployment information grouped by district. Includes: Claim count: Total number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Universal Credit who are not in work in July 2019 Compared to last month: How much larger/smaller July’s claimant count is compared to June expressed as a % Claimant rate: The % of working age population claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Universal Credit who are not in work in July 2019 Highest claiming ward: The ward with the highest claim count in that district and the rate CHELTENHAM BOROUGH GLOUCESTER CITY Claim count: 1,395 Claim count: 2,230 Compared to last month: 2.6% Compared to last month: 1.8% Claimant rate: 1.9% Claimant rate: 2.7% Highest claiming ward Hester’s Way (4.3%) Highest claiming wards Westgate (5.4%) COTSWOLD DISTRICT STROUD DISTRICT Claim count: 655 Claim count: 945 Compared to last month: 2.3% Compared to last month: 7.4% Claimant rate: 1.3% Claimant rate: 1.3% Highest claiming wards Slade (3.2%) Highest claiming ward Watermoor (3.6%) FOREST OF DEAN TEWKESBURY BOROUGH Claim count: 1,100 Claim count: 865 Compared to last month: 0.0% Compared to last month: 3.6% Claimant rate: 1.6% Claimant rate: 2.1% Highest claiming ward Tewkesbury Prior’s Highest claiming ward Lydney East (4.1%) Park (4.0%) Unemployment Bulletin Page 3 PART 2: UK, SW AND GLOUCESTERSHIRE INDICATORS The unemployment situation in Gloucestershire compared to the South West and the UK. Claimant Rate Figure 1: Claimant Rate for Gloucestershire, the South West and UK over the past year 4.0 United Kingdom 3.5 South West 3.0 Gloucestershire 2.5 2.0 Rate (%) Rate 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 1.9% in July 2019. The Gloucestershire rate has been lower than the South West average since December 2015, with the exception of April and May 2016 when it was the same. It has been persistently lower by approximately 0.8% against the UK average. Claimant Count Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts Area Claimant Count % change on Consecutive in July 2019 June 2019 months increasing UK 1,157,500 1.9% 12 South West 68,605 1.1% 12 Gloucestershire 7,195 2.6% 13 Table 1 shows that in July 2019, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 2.6% higher than the number in June 2019. Unemployment Bulletin Page 4 PART 3: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT ANALYSIS Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 2: Claimant Rate (%) across Gloucestershire - July 2019 3.0 2.5 Gloucestershire 1.9% 2.0 % 1.5 2.7 2.1 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 Figure 2 shows the claimant rate for July 2019 in Gloucestershire. Between June 2019 and July 2019 the rate increased in all districts, except the Forest of Dean and Gloucester which stayed the same Unemployment Bulletin Page 5 Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Jul 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Jun 19 Monthly % monthly Monthly Total Number Rate Number Rate change change change of rate Gloucestershire 7,195 1.9 7,010 1.8 185 2.6% 0.1 Cheltenham 1,395 1.9 1,360 1.8 35 2.6% 0.1 Cotswold 655 1.3 640 1.2 15 2.3% 0.1 Forest of Dean 1,100 2.1 1,100 2.1 0 0.0% 0.0 Gloucester 2,230 2.7 2,190 2.7 40 1.8% 0.0 Stroud 945 1.3 880 1.2 65 7.4% 0.1 Tewkesbury 865 1.6 835 1.5 30 3.6% 0.1 Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in July 2019 compared to June 2019. All districts saw an increase in the number of claimants, except the Forest of Dean which stayed the same. Table 3: Analysis of Male Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Jul 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Jun 19 Monthly % monthly Monthly Male Number Rate Number Rate change change change of rate Gloucestershire 4,170 2.2 4,085 2.1 85 2.1% 0.1 Cheltenham 850 2.3 825 2.2 25 3.0% 0.1 Cotswold 370 1.5 360 1.4 10 2.8% 0.1 Forest of Dean 630 2.5 640 2.5 -10 -1.6% 0.0 Gloucester 1,345 3.3 1,320 3.2 25 1.9% 0.1 Stroud 510 1.4 490 1.4 20 4.1% 0.0 Tewkesbury 465 1.7 445 1.6 20 4.5% 0.1 Table 3 shows the change in the male claimant count in July 2019 compared to June 2019. All districts saw an increase in the number of male claimants, except the Forest of Dean which saw a decrease. Table 4: Analysis of Female Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Jul 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Jun 19 Monthly % monthly Monthly Female Number Rate Number Rate change change change of rate Gloucestershire 3,025 1.6 2,925 1.5 100 3.4% 0.1 Cheltenham 545 1.5 535 1.5 10 1.9% 0.0 Cotswold 285 1.1 275 1.0 10 3.6% 0.1 Forest of Dean 470 1.8 460 1.8 10 2.2% 0.0 Gloucester 885 2.2 870 2.1 15 1.7% 0.1 Stroud 435 1.2 395 1.1 40 10.1% 0.1 Tewkesbury 400 1.4 390 1.4 10 2.6% 0.0 Table 4 shows the change in the female claimant count in July 2019 compared to June 2019. All districts saw an increase in the number of female claimants. Unemployment Bulletin Page 6 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS This section covers the six districts and a comparison of their constituent wards. 4.1 Cheltenham Borough Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 3: Cheltenham Borough claimant rate over the last year 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Figure 3 shows the claimant rate in Cheltenham increased in July 2019 to 1.9%.