Date 2 November 2015 Speaker: Dr. Kent E. Calder, Director

Date 2 November 2015 Speaker: Dr. Kent E. Calder, Director

Bologna Institute for Policy Research Via Belmeloro, 11 - Bologna (Italy) +39 051 292 7811 www.bipr.eu Date 2 November 2015 Speaker: Dr. Kent E. Calder, Director, Reischaeur Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, Washington D.C., United States Chair: Dr. Erik Jones, Director of European and Eurasian Studies and Professor of European Studies and International Political Economy, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe, Bologna, Italy, and Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford, United Kingdom “Eurasia’s Changing Configuration in Global Political-Economic Context” Part of Europe’s Security Challenges Series Dr. Kent Calder discusses the phenomenon of “New Continentalism,” referring to strengthening Eurasian interdependence, and its implications for global international affairs. He begins with the three transformational decades between the 1970s and 1990s which set Japan, the “Asian tigers,” and China on paths towards rapid economic growth. Despite the political changes that accommodated growth, Calder highlights that geographical constancies across the continent, such as fixed resource endowments, ultimately determined and will continue to determine the limits and relative manner in which East Asian nations develop. Resource constraints, especially concerning energy resources, are shifting political linkages across the continent, which was once divided by Cold War enmity, and now held in balance by China. To understand the nuances of regional interdependence, Calder focuses on the actions of individual leaders, companies and consumers, as well as the natural and institutional constraint that bind actors’ decision-making. It is within this transnational, historically-specific, framework, that Calder views New Continentalism as a product of “critical junctures.” He deems historical events as such if they change the parameters for economic decision-making. For example, the collapse of the Soviet Union opened a market once hermetically sealed off from the East by Stalin; the modernization of the People’s Congress in China increased Europe’s attraction to China as a new market while catalyzing economic growth that increased demand for energy resources; while the Iranian Revolution’s nationalization of energy resources affected the ease with which such demands would be met. One such parameter that shapes economic and political decision making of today’s leaders is the net demand for oil from the Asia Pacific region, already the heaviest in the world and projected to continue to grow as per capita consumption levels in India and China rise. One of the key features of the New Continentalism that Calder describes is the strategic trade relationships between Eurasian countries, as a “complementarity” characterized by Asia Pacific demand met by supplies from Russia and the Persian Gulf. The close geographical proximity between complementary countries also distinguishes the energy trade as a strong foundation for future import-export exchanges. China’s One Belt, One Road policy, for example, includes China’s sea-born routes to the Persian Gulf that allow China to bypass Pakistan for access to 45-50% of its energy supply. China’s energy dependence on Russia, from whom it imported 39% of its oil in 2009, considerably informed Xi Jingping’s visit to Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in May 2015 to discuss the Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union. By situating rising energy demand in the Asia Pacific region against concurrent political transformations on the Western half of the continent, Calder illuminates the global implications of Eurasia’s growing energy interdependence, primarily, the rise of China. Calder points to the Ukraine crisis as a main critical juncture in Europe, marking the peak of Russian blowback against EU and NATO’s eastern enlargement. While suffering from EU sanctions, Russia benefits from China’s sustained diplomatic cooperation over energy and trade issues. Despite China’s dependency on Russian oil supplies, it is China’s need to maintain positive relations with Russia that positions it as the balancer of cooling relations between Russia and the EU and thus grants it great political leverage. Further facilitating China’s rise is the EU’s pivot to China for help in overcoming the current challenges it faces. As Calder’s paradigm for New Continentalism would predict, this shift is a product of geopolitical considerations—China does not pose the same immediate threat to enlarging NATO and EU systems that Russia does—and several critical junctures, the first being enlargement itself. However, the EU crisis, particularly its handling of the Greek debt, now tests the tenability of a European monetary union. By allowing the EU to maintain low interest rates, China’s large foreign exchange reserves buy the EU more time to resolve its monetary crisis. Meanwhile, rising Chinese FDI in the EU forges another continental linkage promising economic benefits for both countries. Calder suggests a new world order could come from this symbiotic relationship developing between post-Cold War Europe and its demands and Asia’s rising capabilities. Calder insists, however, that these individual issues cannot be viewed in a vacuum, which is the very reason he juxtaposes energy interdependence with the political developments in the EU. The rise of a single country like China is inevitably tied to the structural circumstances of other regions and should continue to be studied as such. While the future of the Baltic states, the European Union, and the energy market remain unclear, the analytical approach of the New Continentalism offers this lasting contribution. 2 .

View Full Text

Details

  • File Type
    pdf
  • Upload Time
    -
  • Content Languages
    English
  • Upload User
    Anonymous/Not logged-in
  • File Pages
    2 Page
  • File Size
    -

Download

Channel Download Status
Express Download Enable

Copyright

We respect the copyrights and intellectual property rights of all users. All uploaded documents are either original works of the uploader or authorized works of the rightful owners.

  • Not to be reproduced or distributed without explicit permission.
  • Not used for commercial purposes outside of approved use cases.
  • Not used to infringe on the rights of the original creators.
  • If you believe any content infringes your copyright, please contact us immediately.

Support

For help with questions, suggestions, or problems, please contact us